(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
Chris will be bringing you weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. Want more? He also provides a cheatsheet with stats, course history, current form, player write-ups for cash and GPP, a customizable model, and much more.
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This week the PGA Tour returns to ground zero, in a way, as the 2020 PLAYERS Championship was canceled after the first round when the world was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. In terms of golf, Hideki Matsuyama was rocked the most by the news as he opened the event with an incredible nine-under-par 63 and since the cancelation, has just two Top 10 finishes in his last 22 events. Can he re-create that magic again this week?
A year later things are finally started to get back to normal for the PGA Tour as we have started to see fans trickle back into these events and it has sure provided a boost to some.....cough cough Bryson DeChambeau. If you missed it this past Saturday, here is a replay of the mammoth drive.
As always, the field of 154 for this year's event is absolutely loaded with each of the Top 10 and 48 of the Top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings teeing it up this week. The host course is the iconic TPC Sawgrass, best known for the famous island-green, 17th hole but the classic Pete-Dye setup is also known as one of the toughest tests in golf.
Off the tee, golfers see narrow driving areas with dangers everywhere between sand bunkers and water which is in play on 17 of 18 holes. Because of this, we will see a lot of "less than driver" gameplans in an attempt to find the fairway or at least positioning to have a shot at the smaller than average green complexes. When breaking down the ball Striking metric, I have Strokes Gained: Approach much higher than Off the Teet this week and with fairway finding more important than distance, I will be zoning in on the longer proximity ranges(175-200 and 200+), as well.
Finally, with smaller than average greens here at TPC Sawgrass combined with a lot of long iron approaches leads to a lot of missed greens putting a ton of importance on Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Those players who miss greens are definitely never out of it if they have are elite around the green and with the flat stick. This scenario played out in 2018 as Webb Simpson won while ranking 92nd in SG: Approach but was 3rd in SG: Around the Green and 1st in SG: Putting.
TPC Sawgrass
Par 72 - 7,189 yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
*2020 - Cancelled due to COVID-19
When breaking down the top stats I use a combination of my own cheatsheet(weighted 90% this season, 10% last season) and the tools over at FantasyNational.com.
Patrick Cantlay
World Golf Ranking (#9)
Vegas Odds (23/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($11,100)
Cantlay's DraftKings price was the first thing that jumped off the page as he comes in the low $9K range and 10th in pricing this week. I get this is an elite field but he checks every box starting with form as he has made every cut(9/9) this season with a win at the Zozo Championship and Top 15 in all four events since the calendar flipped to 2021. The ball-striking has been elite as he has gained 4+ strokes in that category in each of his last three events. Even if the irons are a bit off I still feel confident here as he is 2nd in scrambling and 5th in SG: Around the Green on my sheet.
After a missed cut here in 2019, Cantlay was in prime position for a huge rebound last year shooting a five-under, 67 in the opening round before the event got canceled. Not only will I have a ton of exposure in DFS this week but I will also be betting him outright.
Viktor Hovland
World Golf Ranking (#13)
Vegas Odds (26/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($10,900)
For the most part, my builds are going to be very balanced as there are four golfers in this $9K range on DraftKings I absolutely love. I honestly feel the chalk in this top tier falls on Cantlay, Webb, Morikawa, and even Rory with their combination of form, course history, or both. This will open up some ownership pivots and Hovland is going to be one of them. Despite a T49 last week, Hovland has been extremely consistent with a win and four Top 5 finishes in his last six events and hasn't missed a cut since the Honda last March(22 straight cuts made).
While he doesn't have course history like some in the field, he did look good in last year's first round shooting a four-under 68 before the event got canceled. Statistically, he ranks 9th in this field in SG: Tee to Green, 10th in both Proximity ranges I am looking at(175-200 & 200+ yards), 7th in Par 4 scoring, 5th in Opportunities Gained, and 2nd in Birdie or Better Gained. Even if it appears he won't be as low owned as I thought, I will still be heavy on Hovland this week in DFS.
Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (41/1)
Draftkings ($8,700)
FanDuel ($10,500)
No golfer was crushed more by the cancelation to last year's PLAYERS than Hideki who fired a near-flawless nine-under 63 in the opening round. Things haven't been that great since as he has tallied just two Top 10's in 22 events since but he is definitely trending in the right direction. He picked up a T15 at the WGC Workday and a T18 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and gained 6.5 and 4.5 strokes tee to green in those events respectively. The putter can often be an issue(bit of an understatement) but the good news is that he has gained strokes on the green in two of his last three events. We don't often get Matsuyama in teh sub $9K range on DraftKings and that is what is really driving that bus for me this week in a core balanced build in my 20-max. The form and course history definitely help(haha).
Will Zalatoris
World Golf Ranking (#46)
Vegas Odds (71/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,600)
If you are looking for elite PTS/$ consistency, look no further than Will Zalatoris who is not only making cuts at an elite rate but almost always finishing inside the Top 20% of the field. Then add that he comes in the mid $7K price tag and you have a great DFS play. No. The KFT is not the same level of competition but since joining the PGA Tour at the US Open, he has made 11 of 12 cuts with five Top 10's including some elite fields including last week at the API.
The ball-striking is elite right now and the only thing keeping him from his first career win is the putter. At these prices, he will be around Top 5 in terms of exposure in my builds this week and I will also be betting him to win, Top 5, and Top 10.
Joaquin Niemann
World Golf Ranking (#29)
Vegas Odds (56/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($9,800)
I am a bit above my usual value range but I talked about a very balanced player pool this week and Niemann's is a value as he is not often under $8K on DraftKings(once last 10 events). The first thing that stands out is the ball- striking as he not only ranks 14th on my sheet but comes into this week having gained strokes both off the tee and on approach together in six of his last seven events. Consistency is something I mention a lot and Niemann checks that box as well having made all 10 cuts this season with two runner-ups and seven Top 25 finishes. All things considered, he is in play in all formats and another player I will be looking to bet Top 10 and Top 20.
Chris Kirk
World Golf Ranking (#84)
Vegas Odds (141/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,800)
Another player who jumps off the page in terms of PTS/$ value is Chris Kirk is having a terrific start to the season. He comes in having made eight of his last nine cuts and has finished T16 or better in four of his last five including a T8 last week at the API. Over his last two events, he has gained strokes in every SG category and 11.6 total in that time. He also returns to the PLAYERS with some solid course history having made the cut in seven straight(WD in 2016) including three Top 15 finishes in '14, '15, and '17. All things considered, he is one of my top values this week and in play in all formats.
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