Indiana Pacers guard Malcolm Brogdon (7) dribbles the ball up the court against the Golden State Warriors during the first half of an NBA basketball game in San Francisco, Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2021. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
This is one of the craziest sports weekends I've ever seen. We have opening weekend in MLB, big games in the NBA, Final Four matchups in men's and women's NCAA, and various obscure sports that can cater to anyone! That includes UFC, PGA, ATP, WTP, and my personal favorite, AFL. This is all about NBA, though, and I'm undoubtedly the most zoned into basketball with all my season-long fantasy leagues winding down to an end. There's a lot to inhale when it comes to this Friday slate, so let's go ahead and break it down!
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Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 39.11 DK - 40.11
Morant has been a bit too inconsistent for someone of his ability, but this price is silly. Especially on FanDuel, with Morant performing like a $9,000 player at times this season. That was certainly the case in his most recent outing, collecting 36 points, seven assists, and three steals in one of his best performances of the season. Games like those show just how special he can be, and it makes it hard to understand why he remains so cheap behind a 37-point average. What makes it even more bizarre is this majestic matchup, with the T'Wolves surrendering the fifth-most fantasy point to opposing PGs this season.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 38.19 DK - 39.52
Brogdon has seen his numbers dip a little bit over the last month or so but not enough for his price to dip this much. We're still talking about a guy who's averaging 39 DraftKings points per game for the season, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games in total. It's crazy that he's been doing that sort of damage consistently and has seen his price drop so much. The matchup makes that price reduction even crazier, with the Hornets owning a 23rd OPRK against opposing point guards this season. That's been on full display in the first two meetings, with Malcolm in the Middle averaging 43 DK points per game.
If Donovan Mitchell is out again, look at Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 40.13 DK - 41.04
With Kyle Lowry out for the next week, FVV should be taking over as the primary point guard in Toronto. In this role earlier in the season, VanVleet played nearly 40 minutes a night and attempted just shy of 20 shots per game. That's really no surprise when you see that he leads the team with a 28 percent usage rate with Lowry off the floor, averaging 1.2 DK points per minute. All of that makes it hard to believe that he's hovering around $8K on both sites, especially with FVV tallying 52 fantasy points in the first game without him on Wednesday. The matchup with Golden State is simply the icing on the cake, with the Warriors ranked 23rd in points allowed.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.51 DK - 32.96
I believe Haliburton has been in this article every game he's played this week, and that says something about this mispricing. These DFS sites continue to keep him around $6K, and it's impossible to understand why. He averaged 30 DK points per game before his injury a month ago, which is right on par with his 30-point average over his last six fixtures. His role has slowly been increasing, too, entering the starting lineup last week while playing 34 minutes a night in that span. The Lakers might look like a tough matchup when looking at the statistics, but they've been one of the worst teams in the NBA since losing their two superstars.
Joe Ingles will be an excellent pick if Mitchell is out too.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 35.9 DK - 35.64
Can we give OG some credit? This guy has quietly had a breakout year for the Raptors, and it's being overlooked because of how bad his team is. That's on full display when you see his 31-point average for the season, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in seven-straight outings. That has him in the best stretch of his career, and he's likely to see more minutes, shots, and ball-handling opportunities with Lowry off the floor once again. What's also going to keep him in this game is that he needs to cover Stephen Curry, guaranteeing him 35-40 minutes of play. We saw that when he played over 37 minutes in their first meeting, and we already discussed how good of a matchup it can be in the VanVleet write-up earlier on.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.91 DK - 30.1
If you haven't seen this guy play, go check out his hair-doo. This dude has an absolutely majestic mullet, and that alone makes him worth a shot in your lineup. Obviously, we're not going to trust him because of his hair, but we will ride him for his game. The reason he's become a fantasy-relevant player is all the injures in OKC, with Al Horford, Darius Bazley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Luguentz Dort all expected to sit here. That's a ton of usage and minutes out of the lineup, leaving Williams with a starting job. In his seven starts this season, K-Will is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game in 32 minutes a night. Good luck finding that from another sub-$5K player.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has had two monster games in a row and is obviously in play against a putrid Pelicans defense.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 48.91 DK - 51.31
Picking power forwards was not easy on this slate, so we're going to go with the most reliable option on the board. That happens to be Baby Sabonis, with the big man having a career year. In fact, he's averaging 20.2 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 6.2 assists en route to a 47-point average on DraftKings. That alone makes him a good option below five figures, but he also happens to have the best matchup possible. Charlotte currently ranks 18th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing PFs. That's pretty obvious when you see that Sabonis is averaging 50 DK points per game in their two meetings this year.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 24.74 DK - 23.72
McDaniels has been in and out of the lineup throughout the season, but it's hard for Minnesota to mess with his minutes how he's playing right now. The rookie has now scored at least 21 fantasy points in five straight fixtures, playing at least 33 minutes in each of his last four games. That most recent four-game spurt has led to a 29-point average in that span which is a truly absurd stretch from a sub-$5K player. It's not like Memphis is necessarily a scary matchup either, with the Grizzlies sitting 16th in total defense. As long as he plays the 36 minutes he's matched recently, we love him in this price range.
Everyone talks about Moses Brown in OKC's frontcourt, but Isaiah Roby has been awesome in the absence of Darius Bazley and Al Horford as well.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 45.15 DK - 44.73
Capela just had one of the best games of his career on Thursday. The Swiss center generated 28 points, 17 rebounds, and five blocks en route to a ridiculous 61 DraftKings points. He's shown that sort of ability all season, and it's scary that he posted a game like that with his price dropping a bit recently. The best part about using him here might be the matchup, though, with the Pelicans sitting 28th in defensive efficiency and 25th in points allowed. They've also been playing at a much faster pace over recent weeks, and that's huge for a guy that gains his value through rebounds and hustle statistics.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.21 DK - 38.72
The Lakers are terrible without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but it gives Harrell some time to thrive. Many people were worried about Andre Drummond taking away minutes, but it sounds like he'll sit here too. That means Harrell should resume the monster role he had prior, leading the team with a 29 percent usage rate with those guys off the floor. Harrell is also producing 1.34 DK points per minute in that playing time too, which is an unbelievably good total from a guy who's seen his minutes bump recently. All of that has led to him averaging just shy of 40 fantasy points per game across his last 12 outings. Not to mention, the Kings have the worst defensive efficiency rating in basketball.
James Wiseman is still around $5K on both sites, and that's too cheap for a youngster as talented as he.
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