Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 51.88 DK - 54.65
You can't pay up everywhere today, but you're going to want to strongly consider paying up for Lillard. Point guard is a mess, first of all, and Lillard is just doing so much for the Trail Blazers that the DraftKings price in particular is looking ridiculous. Dame played 42 minutes in game two in spite of Portland getting run out of the gym, and put together a 42/10/4 line including 9/16 from three. That's just ridiculous, and he's truly having his way with Campazzo and whoever else the Nuggets try to throw at him. Not overthinking this one - Dame is an every lineup guy.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.37 DK - 30.19
As you'll see as time goes on, it's really tough to find savings tonight. While Schroder isn't exactly cheap, he probably qualifies as a cheap play on the night. He's also in a nice spot here, particularly if CP3 misses this one. The Lakers fed Schroder 16 shots in game 2, and he got to the line 6 times. I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation if he winds up squaring off against a defender like Cameron Payne here.
Monitor Chris Paul's situation very closely. He hasn't looked right since his "shoulder contusion," and there is a real possibility that Cameron Payne will be a must-play in cash games if Paul sits.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 49.63 DK - 51.84
With Paul hobbled, Booker is taking over even more than we expected he would in this pivotal series. He's playing 40+ minutes guaranteed, running the offense, and being wildly aggressive in getting to the basket. He tied a career-high with 17 free throw attempts in game two, and made every single one of them. He's the one guy that the Lakers don't have a perfect answer for defensively, and he should continue to get his.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.52 DK - 43.01
There's not a whole lot we can take away from game two in the Portland/Denver series, but one constant so far has been McCollum's ability to get efficient buckets. He shot 9/12 from the floor in game two, and mirrored his 21/6 line from game one across 38 minutes of action. Dame has had the ball in his hands a lot more than he did during the regular season, but McCollum has been so effective that we could see that shift going forward. There also just aren't a lot of options at the position, so we might be playing McCollum out of necessity as opposed to out of desire.
Also considered: Donte DiVincenzo, if you absolutely must have the savings.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 41.72 DK - 43.26
Small forward looks extremely tricky tonight, with a lot of question marks. We'll break down the rest of the position in a moment. For now, let's focus on Middleton. While it's true that almost every team in the NBA this postseason has seen shots funneled into the hands of superstars, Middleton has been steady for Milwaukee. Game two was such a blowout that it's hard to learn anything, but in game one he played 39 minutes in regulation and supplied 47.2 FanDuel points. He's at a nice mid-range price point, and given the lack of solid cheap options at the position today I'm happy to run him.
The rest:
Every single one of the available options after Middleton looks problematic to me. Let's have a brief look.
Mikal Bridges and Norman Powell are cheaper options, but Bridges randomly lost a bunch of minutes in game two, and Powell has really taken a back seat in the offense. Both come with a lot of risk, though I'd play Bridges if need be.
Jimmy Butler and LeBron James are great, and vital to their team's success, of course, but neither has delivered on his price so far. If I had to pick one I'd go with Butler, who at least showed flashes in game one even though his shot wasn't falling.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 26.22 DK - 25.25
Covington has not been great on these prices so far, but not a lot has to break his way if he's going to be out there for 35+ minute rotations. That's basically the whole sales pitch. If 4x points per dollar (which he's been getting so far), anything above and beyond is gravy. Power forward is terrible tonight, and he helps you get away from a bad position cheaply.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.52 DK - 43.27
MPJ is actually favorite break-out candidate for this slate of game 3s. He's averaged just a little worse than paying value so far, but it's really hard to imagine the game goes further away from him than it already has. First of all, there is just no way the Blazers will continue to let Jokic just cut them up for 75% shooting again. They have to try something, and if they start sending help more aggressively the Joker should be able to find Porter for some offense. And hell, even if he doesn't, Porter Jr. brings more upside by just playing the 6-7 more minutes per game that he should in a close contest.
You can't play every superstar, but if you can afford him, Giannis is obviously an incredible play with what he's been up to so far.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 59.02 DK - 61.55
Of the four centers playing today, I think you have two very solid options in Jokic and Ayton. They bring different things to the table, of course. Jokic has seen his already high usage skyrocket in the playoffs, with the Nuggets attempting to take full advantage of the mismatch he presents for the Trail Blazers. He's averaging 36 points and 12 rebounds so far, and we could absolutely see an uptick in his assists as well. What's even scarier is that there is probably minutes upside here as well, with Jokic playing less than the full run of minutes we had projected for him thanks to weird game scripts in both of the first games. If you can afford it, he's a pretty obvious play.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.44 DK - 37.66
Ayton is just rock solid on these prices. If he's going to play up to 42 minutes a game you're looking at an $8,000 player, and anything else is just an unreasonable discount. He's been far readier to handle AD in the post than anyone expected, and if he remains that essential defensively you can bet the Suns are ready to wear him out.
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