Kyle Larson celebrates after winning the NASCAR Cup Series auto race at Auto Club Speedway Sunday, Feb. 27, 2022, in Fontana, Calif. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
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Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Track Type - 1.5 Mile D-Shaped Oval Intermediate
20° of Banking
We are now into week three of the season and as anticipated, we are already seeing changes and that is where we will start this week. NASCAR is now headed to it's fourth different track(including the Coliseum) and as they figure things out track time is going to be key. This is where the biggest change comes in as instead of the 15-minute group practices this week in Las Vegas, teams will all practice together in a 35-minute session before then breaking into two groups for single-car qualifying.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway has been on the schedule since 1998 and adopted a second race back in 2018. The track is a 1.5-mile D-shaped oval with 20 degrees of progressive banking and 1st in my quality pass metric when looking at mile and a half tracks. Whether that continues with the new car remains to be seen but Fontana saw its second-most quality passes over the last 10 races there so I am positive we see a good race in Sin City.
I have also put together a track position importance research tool for 2022 which pretty much looks at the correlation from starting position to finishing position. Las Vegas ranks #1 when looking at mile and a half tracks and #2 overall in terms of the importance of track position at the start of the race. This leads us into the breakdown of dominators and there have been at least two drivers to lead 50 or more laps in four straight with one driver to lead 100 or more in three straight. With just 267 laps, we have also not seen multiple drivers with 100+ in any of the last 10 races here at Vegas.
The key will be nailing down those dominators and practice and qualifying will certainly help with that. Before those sessions on Saturday, let's take a look at a few drivers who I am targeting early in the week.
Kyle Larson
How do we not start with Kyle Larson? With his win at Fontana last week, he is currently on a historic run winning five of the last seven Cup races overall going back to the Charlotte Road win in the playoffs. Even at his price, his 28 laps led and 12 place differential points got him to a 6x return and into the winning lineups. The price actually came down $300 on DraftKings this week as he returns to Vegas as the Pennzoil 400 defending winner. The track history here is also near the top of the series as he has Top 10's in seven of his last eight trips with four Top 5's and even last fall led 95 laps before finishing 10th. It's early but he is most definitely on my radar in practice/qualifying and is an early top dominator pick.
Joe Gibbs Racing(Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin)
This is a very interesting one to track this week for many reasons starting with the overheating issues we saw with the #18 and #11 last week. Despite those issues, they were able to finish 14th/15th respectively with Kyle doing it in Kyle fashion as he was, at one point, four laps down. They should benefit from the extended practice this week and if they get the issues figured out are in a great spot for fantasy sitting as the 5th, 6th, and 8th priced drivers on DraftKings as all three of their prices have dropped from last week.
All three of these drivers also have excellent track history here led by Truex who is tied with Joey Logano with a dazzling 6.2 average finish over the last 10 Vegas races. Hamlin won the playoff race here in the fall and has three straight Top 5's while Busch returns to his hometown track with 3rd place finishes in both races last year and Top 10's in seven of his last 10. Stay tuned for practice and qualifying as the PTS/$ value is off the charts should one of them become a top dominator this week.
Austin Cindric
It is hard to not be impressed with Cindric's start to the season replacing Keselowski in the #2 Team Penske car. He put himself in position to win that Daytona 500 running inside the Top 10(average run position of 6th) all day and then followed up that historic win by picking up the first Cup pole of his young career at Fontana last week. While he finished 12th, he once again had an average run inside the Top 10 and appears to have no issue running with the big boys. The price remains in the mid-range on both sites which feels like a buy-low should he qualify outside the Top 10 and better yet, outside the Top 15. Stay tuned.
Chase Briscoe/Chris Buescher
Here we have two Ford values I will be watching for in practice/qualifying this week. Briscoe was decent here in his rookie season finishing 21st and 14th and has seen his price dip below $7K on DraftKings this week while it took a big jump on FanDuel. For Buescher, his price has dropped on both sites from last week and by $1,200 on DraftKings. He has been consistent here at Vegas finishing Top 25 in nine straight races with Top 15's in three of his last four.
We will be looking for both these drivers to qualify outside the Top 20 and they would be near looks for me if qualifying outside the Top 25.
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