Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
It was already looking like a weird day for DFS—Ubaldo made an appearance in our picks column, for goodness' sake—and that was before we turned our attention to the weather.
It's still early, and much could change, but the uncertainty is maybe the ugliest part of all these forecasts. Of the nine games scheduled for Thursday, there are only three where weather is of no concern (White Sox/A's, Dodgers/Giants, Cubs/Diamondbacks). Nothing will turn you into a fan of indoor baseball more efficiently than DFS.
Monitor the other six games closely, and if you're playing an all-day slate, be cautious. Or don't. One of the quirks of iffy weather is that it creates some really interesting risk/reward scenarios if you choose to live dangerously with your tournament lineups.
Lineups, whatnot
We've already got the lineups for the Phillies and Reds, and it might be close to lock by the time the others start trickling in, so keep an eye out for breaking news. Projecting lineups blindly can be tricky at this time of week, and especially this early in the season.
To wit: Scott Schebler is batting leadoff for Cincinnati today following a walk-off double in his first start for the Reds on Wednesday. That's great news for DFSers (and Schebler and his loved ones, too, I suppose). He's coming at a steep discount ($2,200 on FanDuel) and has big upside. He struck out a ton in the minors, but also displayed good pop, which is always nice at Great American Ballpark, where the wind is expected to be blowing out today.
Also of note: Billy Hamilton and Brandon Phillips are sitting today, as is Cesar Hernandez for the Phillies.
Chicago Cubs
Holy cow. The projection system is drooling over this one. The Cubs have a lineup loaded with high-upside lefties, Rubby de la Rosa gets pounded by lefties, and everybody seems to go bananas at Chase Field, one of the best all-around hitters parks in baseball. Anthony Rizzo looks like the foundational piece here, and he can be built off of in either direction using combinations of Dexter Fowler, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant and Miguel Montero. It should be noted that de la Rosa has long been considered a high-upside arm and has flashed electric stuff here and there in his career. Nonetheless, for tournament purposes, we like pretty much all the Cubs' lefties in this one.
Washington Nationals
This one's in danger due to the weather, but if the clouds break, the Nats' righties could bring lots of value tonight. Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth are both well past their primes, but still putting up good numbers against southpaw pitching, Anthony Rendon has an OPS north of .800 against lefties in his career, and Wilson Ramos has also been a nice source of offense in the favorable split. And they're all coming really cheap. Another extreme value: Michael Taylor ($2,200 on FanDuel). He hit leadoff last night and should be back at the top of the order tonight now that Ben Revere has landed on the DL.
Stephenson is a former first-round pick with big-time strikeout potential and devastating stuff ... when he can locate it. The reason he's coming at bargain basement prices is that he's struggled with command at every level in the minors and got slaughtered in Spring Training this season. He's also throwing in a yard that plays like a beer league softball park and for whatever their faults, the Phillies lineup doesn't whiff a ton. Still, at these prices, why not? We might feel differently on another slate, but picking a pitcher today is like the DFS equivalent of self mutilation.
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 15.28 DK - 11.96
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 16.1 DK - 12.54
Opponent - ARI (De La Rosa) Park - @ARI
FD - 15.01 DK - 11.92
As of our most recent projections update, these guys are showing up in nearly every lineup our optimizer produces on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Rizzo has the highest expected output, but Schwarber is just a tick behind and at a better price. All three make nice options in any format, though Schwarber comes with slightly more risk due to his high K rate.
For lineups where you're not stacking Cubs and/or including Zobrist, our system likes Kipnis as a go-to building block. He's a great high-floor cash game play against mediocre righty Joe Kelly, with decent upside to boot. And on FanDuel, the price is especially nice ($2,900).
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
I live in Baltimore expecting on and off showers the rest of the day I would personally stay away from the game completely a pretty good chance it will be rained out.
Any other late slate pitcher recs? Don't trust Ubaldo or the weather on the east coast. Already have Wood going.
Honestly, I don't trust anything about that slate. I'm not playing it.
Hey Doug, quick question. Playing around with the optimizer it spits out a lot of lineups with between 1k and 2k salary left over. Would you recommend still playing a lineup with that much salary left over?
When you are saying this, are you putting constraints on it to eliminate games?
Yes. For "Full Day" slates it doesn't happen. But, for example, today's fanduel afternoon slate with 5 games it was happening with some of the lineups which is why I ask (not so much since you guys have been changing things). On 2-3-4 game slates would you recommend playing lineups with that much salary left over?
Right. We haven't shifted too much stuff around today except updating as batting lineups have been updated. That's why I asked, even with the just the early slate. That's why I wondering if you have taken out some games.
The salary left over piece is really slate dependent. The super short slates without a good pitcher this will happen. It's hard to answer the question in a vacuum.
I see the optimizer has pitchers in the same game? Isn't this
Counterproductive? Optimizer has been great for the most part so I am curious. Thanks
Right. This won't usually happen because among many other things, the projections are influenced some by betting line. Therefore a bump for one pitcher has an inverse effect on the other. That being said, today is about as bad a pitching day as you'll get.
It's limiting from the chances of winning a tournament. But from a cash game perspective it can work. Today is weird.
BTW.. I appreciate having a forum/ think tank for DFS. Thanks for doing this.
Yeah love the discussion. The comments have really helped us with our projections because they will point things out from time-to-time that have us question inputs, methods and simply see a mistake if there's been a glitch.
New to the MLB fantasy. What's the best place to get stats? Where can you find out who the good teams are and who are the bad ones?
Does the MLB EBook explain a lot of the basics. Tried to cash last night using your projections and lost.
FanGraphs is great for digging deep, but it might be a little overwhelming depending on your familiarity with advanced stats. It's not geared specifically toward DFS or even fantasy really, but there's a wealth of data there and it's a good resource. I'd recommend starting here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/
Doug, you said that you like to run the top 4 lineups in cash contests. Is that all 4 in a multi entry or spread between 4 contests? I usually play all single entry double ups but maybe i should be running different lineups in the same contest. Thanks and keep up the good work.
Gordy,
At times if the values are somewhat overlapping or close, then yes I will do that. It's not a tried and true system but I think diversifying with small changes here and there is a good baseball strategy
Man oh man. I was going heavy on the Washington game but the radar looks pretty nasty. Same for Astros/Yanks...what to do?
According to weather.com the rain in NY seems to taper a bit. Currently I'm running lineups that include
LAD/SD, NYY/HOU, CWS/ OAK
Doug why not CHC/ARI? That game has many players in the optimizer.
Was referring to just the early slate of games. Sorry. The Cubs are basically a must stack for me if playing the night slate.