Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
Note that this article’s format changed when the playoffs started. Additionally, there won’t be a separate updates article. Check back to this article throughout the day and review the discussion in the comments below for updated information.
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Analysis
Brooms high! The most lopsided match-up of round one will almost assuredly come to a close here, and really, I am not too sad to see it go. The first round of the NBA playoffs has been incredibly tough to project from a daily fantasy perspective, and this series has been no exception. After two games where basically no players paid their price, a (relatively) close game 3 saw a handful of solid fantasy performances. With this being the 4th (and likely final) game of the series, we're projecting that Memphis will play their good guys (such as they are) as much as they can since there's nothing left to play for after this one. The Spurs? It's a little trickier. Let's get to it.
Top Value Plays
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 18.18 DK Proj. Pts - 19.1
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 24.76 DK Proj. Pts - 25.3
Memphis guard stack!! Woof. Farmar was kinda great in the last game, at least from a points per dollar perspective. If he's going to play 30+ minutes and handle the ball a decent amount, I maintain that he's a solid play here, and I can very likely see playing him (even in 50/50s and double-ups) if I need a savings at some position. As for Allen, that'll take a bit of 'splaining. Allen played a ton of minutes in the closest game in this series, but was not particularly effective, scoring just 14.5 fantasy points in 37 minutes of play. Not awesome. But there were signs of life, particularly that he got to the line for 6 FTA and shot 8 times. He missed all of them, I get it, but the Spurs are weakest defensively in the back court, and I could easily see him paying value in this one.
Honorable Memphis Mention: Matt Barnes. He was terrific in game 3, putting up a 17/11/4 line with 2 steals, paying better than 6x points per dollar on his FanDuel price. But I just don't see how you trust it. Of all the Memphis players, it's hardest to see Barnes getting the same minutes (42), or putting up the same production in a tough match-up with Kawhi Leonard. I think some of his rebounds bounce elsewhere as well. Still, Barnes has considerable upside on a $6k salary if he can get these minutes again.
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 20.62 DK Proj. Pts - 21.97
In the interest of fullest disclosure, I'm a heavy favorite to just not bother with any Spurs today. I'm prepared for Ginobili to get between 0 and 22 minutes, and anything inbetween. Still, if you're trying to project the most likely case, I'd guess something like the 21 minutes he played in game 1. And when he plays, Ginobili is probably a fantasy point per minute guy against this lousy Memphis team. He's cheap (on DK in particular), and he's still a good player. I'm just not sure I have the stomach for it.
The Kawhi in the room: Mr. Leonard. Yeah, what to do with this one? Kawhi eviscerated the Grizz in game three for a 60+ fantasy point performance, doing all the things he does. In a game that shouldn't stay close, though, will he reach those heights again in this series with any sort of certainty whatsoever? I say no, though again, one can never be sure. Still, on a relatively "big" playoff slate, I'll probably turn my attention to the guys who are playing more secure minutes.
Analysis
You want confusion? It's the 2016 NBA playoffs! Steph should return for this one, basically undoing everything we thought we knew about how minutes would play out based on how things went in the last 2 games in the series. Happily, we can't even turn to game 1 for any sort of guidance, because the Warriors blew the Rockets out and Curry left after 20 minutes. You psyched? I know I am.
I should throw out there - I do believe Houston will consider this a "must-win" and play their guys their maximum allowable minutes (basically what they played last game), so I'll be assuming that they'll get there's for the following picks. As for GSW, it's a heck of a lot murkier. Here goes.
Breakdown
I'll pass on Golden State's Big Three. Of them, only Draymond did anything resembling paying value in game 1 (the best comp we have for this game), and he was even struggling to pay value against the Warriors with Steph out. With Curry back, the other two big guys see a big hit in value since their prices have risen in his absence. As for Curry, he might go off, but it's hard to pull the trigger on a guy who will play limited minutes if the game is anything resembling a blowout.
It'll be different with more competitive match-ups in the next round, and it heck, it might be different if Houston hangs here and shows they can play with GSW when Curry is hobbled. But with plenty of value elsewhere, I'll pass for cash games. If I'm going for upside? I could see Klay putting up some numbers against Harden with Beverley chasing Curry around.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 19.57 DK Proj. Pts - 20.86
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 21.42 DK Proj. Pts - 23.02
If I'm looking for safety from the Warriors, I'll start with their small forward tandem. Their minutes have been relatively game script proof, and while neither of them has been very consistent from a fantasy perspective, they should be out there for solid minutes in a match-up with the NBA's most porous small forward defensive unit. I don't think either has spectacular upside, but on a team where most of the guys are overpriced relative to what they should do here, this is what we've got.
For Houston:
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 23.94 DK Proj. Pts - 26.7
Beverley will play 33 minutes in this game unless it's completely out of hand, and while it might very well be just that, he's one of the Rockets' most important players in that he's the only one who can pretend to cover Curry. He won't be handling the ball much, but he rebounds the position very well, and should be in a decent position to catch and shoot with Harden being covered by a solid defender in Thompson. I suspect last game's performance (20 fantasy points) is his floor, and he has a ceiling near 30 fantasy points if this one stays close.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 51.84 DK Proj. Pts - 54.81
Harden is playing his minutes here unless the Rockets lose by 40, and if his role in last game is any indication, he has no plans to get eliminated from the playoffs without the ball in his hands. He exploded for 35/8/9 (including the game winner) in game 3 even with the very capable Thompson covering him, and they'll need him again if the Rockets are to keep this one close.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 34.19 DK Proj. Pts - 34.81
It's been interesting to watch Dwight in this series. Most pundits projected the Warriors trying to counter Dwight with their natural 5s, but they've gone the other direction - trying to chase him off the court with small ball. The Rockets haven't budged, and Dwight has been very solid from a fantasy perspective in each of the last 2 games as a result. It looks like the Rockets are locked into this strategy at the moment (he played 33 minutes in each of the last 2 games), and he should be able to use his size advantage to gobble up rebounds as long as GSW doesn't pivot and go bigger.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 23.06 DK Proj. Pts - 24.12
Motiejunas was fantastic in game 3, going off for 14 and 13 with a handful of other stats to go with it. Since this was the only game where the Rockets were competitive, it stands to reason that D-Mo will get additional run here. This comes with one huge caveat, though - Curry's return could lead to the Dubs running the Rockets out of the gym with some breakneck small-ball stuff. Motiejunas could be an odd man out in that scenario, lending more minutes back to Corey Brewer. Us? We're guessing that the Rockets stick with what works, but this selection comes with a lot of risk, even for a cheap play.
Analysis
I'm exhausted. Are you exhausted? Just when you think you know a single damned thing about a series, it goes and flips on its head. The thing you'll like most about this series is that, even with the Avery Bradley injury, it has to be considered the most even match-up by a mile on the slate today. And since last game was nice and close until Boston pulled away in the 4th, we should have some idea how to project the minutes here.
Top Value Plays
On the Hawks:
Everyone. Is that helpful? For real, though - our lineup optimizer thinks you can make a very good case for all 5 Hawks starters, AND Dennis Schroder! This is on account of the Hawks bumping the starters minutes come playoff times, the fact that the Celtics have lost their best defensive player, and the fact that they play one of the fastest paces in the league. I'll give you my tiers, though.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 38.63 DK Proj. Pts - 39.29
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 28.98
Both Baze and Horford paid their prices and then some in a competitive game 3, and while both sustained minor injuries, they both filled it up across the board. I love their match-ups, too. The Celtics are playing some weak defensive lineups down low (to exactly nobody's surprise - they were terrible there all season) and Horford's been eating them alive on the boards and on the defensive end. Bazemore, meanwhile, has taken full advantage of the either Jae Crowder at 50% or when the C's have tried to hide a weak defensive player like Isaiah Thomas on him. Love both of these guys.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 19.68 DK Proj. Pts - 22.75
Korver's been fantastic in 2 straight games, and Avery Bradley's absence directly benefits him more than any other Hawk. He's paid 5 and 8x points per dollar in his last 2 games, and I see that trend continuing tonight.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.97 DK Proj. Pts - 34.07
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.55 DK Proj. Pts - 37.33
I like Teague a lot from a basketball perspective in this series, but he's gotten a little expensive. As for Millsap, I'm a little concerned here. Even with so many other guys on the team battling little injuries, he's actually less a part of the offense than he was during the regular season. He's shooting less and rebounding less in spite of playing more minutes. So, I can't quite figure it out. It wouldn't shock me if we saw a huge game from him in one of these games, but I'm going to temper my enthusiasm until I see it come to fruition once.
The Celtics: For their own reasons, you can also start tons and tons of Celtics today as well. They're prices haven't adjusted for injury concerns and roll changes either, and there's a lot of value to be had. I'll tier them for you.
The bigs who played huge minutes:
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 25.5 DK Proj. Pts - 26.15
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.96 DK Proj. Pts - 27.72
Olynyk is hurt, Zeller isn't playing any minutes, and Jared Sullinger has mysteriously fallen further out of favor. So, Jerebko and Johnson picked up the slack. And did so in a BIG way. They each paid 27+ fantasy points on 30+ minutes, and given that this was the Celtics best game (by far) in the series, it stands to reason that coach Stevens will stick with what works. I'd be fine with either in any format.
The guys who run the offense
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.76 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.12 DK Proj. Pts - 41.57
Turner and Thomas combined for 59 of the Celtics 111 points in game 3, and given who they are playing with right now, I don't see why they won't continue to run the show. They are by far the best shot creators on the team given that Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko, Marcus Smart, and a hobbled Jae Crowder will be their running mates. Both have solid match-ups with Korver and Teague, and should handle the ball (and do it well) a bunch in game 4.
The also rans: Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart. I love the minutes, but am very spooked by what we've seen from these guys so far. The eyeball test says Crowder isn't 100%, and Smart is always going to be a hit or miss offensive player. Given that he's been missing more recently, and that everything is on the line, it'll be tough to trust him here.
Analysis
I've got my broom ready for this one as well, but it's far less of a sure thing than the San Antonio/Memphis situation. The nice thing here is that things have remained relatively stable from a minutes and opportunity perspective all series long. So let's get to it, shall we?
Top Value Plays
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 37.86 DK Proj. Pts - 39.33
A guy our lineup optimizer has loved all series long for one reason - Jackson was one of the most minutes restricted players of the regular season, and has increased his minute projections by about 20% in the playoffs. His price is catching up to some degree, but with everything on the line, expect Jackson to play high 30s minutes once again at 5x points per dollar production in a plus match-up with Kyrie Irving.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 32.29 DK Proj. Pts - 33.88
The beacon of points per minute safety this playoffs, which is kind of like being the safest unwatched drink in a frat house. But hey! Tobias has scored 27-30 fantasy points per game with fairly similar low double-double type lines, and while I prefer him quite a bit more on DraftKings where we have more price security, I could see trotting him out there on FanDuel as well.
Also considered: Andre Drummond, but I don't totally trust it. He should be destroying the Cavs on the boards, but hasn't had that explosive game just yet. And Detroit seems scared to give him the ball due to his awful free throw shooting. Still, I could see an explosion coming.
The Cavs:
Well, basically all of them.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 39.14 DK Proj. Pts - 41.88
Love has been the big daily fantasy basketball surprise this playoff, posting no game below 4x points per dollar on this FanDuel price, and beating 5x points per dollar twice. The Cavs have played him a lot at the 5, and he's been dominant on the boards and on offense. Should be another big game for him here.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 52.08 DK Proj. Pts - 54.13
Arguably the safest big money play of the day, just because I guess there's some chance the Rockets get so blown out they can't justify playing Harden anymore. The Cavs need 1 game to close this out, and LeBron has played at least 40 minutes in each of the first 3. He hasn't been phenomenal on these prices, but I'm rolling with him anyway on account of all the time on the court he'll get.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 23.14 DK Proj. Pts - 26.12
The Pistons have dared Smith to beat them, and he's done all that he's been asked to do. JR has back to back 25+ fantasy point nights, and like many guys in the playoffs, is seeing a big increase in minutes. This match-up with the Pistons is a great one for him because their shooting guard (KCP) is not a guy that necessarily punishes opposing defenders by getting to the rim. He can stick around with Caldwell-Pope on the perimeter, which earns him more looks on the offensive end. A high floor, potentially high ceiling day for him once again.
Also considered: Kyrie Irving. He's more of a boom or bust guy on these prices, but he boomed all over the Pistons for 51 fantasy points in game 1, and has a great match-up with the offense-first Reggie Jackson.
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View Comments
Hated the optimal lineup last night but I went with it anyway and I was PLUM surprised. Nice work guys. (Gentleman handshake).
The optimal has been horrible since the playoffs started.
Yesterday's full day lineup finished in the top 1% of GPPs
Sweeee!!
15th place fan duel $2.00 last night!..$$$
Don't know what you're talking about, at least on fanduel last night I finished third in a dollar mini and top 60 in the free contest. Was busy yesterday, wish I'd put actual money into bball last night and not baseball lol
Is anyone else having problems saving lineups in optimizer pro? option is not there for me anymore..
Hands down best site for dfs.
Thank & keep up the goid work boys.
Yeah, opt cashed out in double ups and 50/50 for me last night on FD. Though it dI'd struggle first few days of playoffs. I cashed previous night or two as well using lineup 2 or 3 instead.
May have tinker a bit today As im not Feeling Allen OR igoudala Who are showing up In top few.
You guys think we could close to a duplicate performance out of jerebko?
The "all day" lineup is what I used actually and it was really solid
Olynyk anyone? Thoughts..
SMH after yesterday......................248.2....................one the greatest episodes of rancid basketball on record.
I know what these multi-millionaire players need that will help them to play better..............................more money............right?
anyway............the coffers are near empty so we roll out the big guns for todays massacre........................
Thomas
Jackson
harden
turner
crowder
morris
jerebko
harris
howard
thoughts?
Use the optimal Jim it's been great since the lower seeds have been home
sorry Nicholas......................don't know how
Crowder is not nearly playing at 100%, and it shows, I got burned last time out, but not this time.
Another great night. Optimizer plus plug n plays. Cashed 17 of 25 lineups in the 2$ gpp