New York Mets pitcher Matt Harvey delivers the ball to the New York Yankees during the first inning of an interleague baseball game Saturday, April 25, 2015, at Yankee Stadium in New York. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
Welcome back to another TGIF edition of our daily fantasy baseball picks. There is one afternoon game with the Pirates in Chicago to face the Cubs leaving us with 14 games in a busy evening slate. The pitching is a bit thin at the top but plenty of value in the mid tier making it a great night to load up on the bats. Let's take a look.
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Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @NYM
FD - 36.33 DK - 20.08
Harvey has returned to form and has recorded three straight quality starts. In those three starts he has limited opponents to a .121 average and has only allowed two earned in 20 innings pitched. He is coming off an outing where he struck out eight Brewers in a great matchup but unfortunately the offense couldn't get him the win. He will again get a great matchup facing the Braves who rank 29th in team wOBA(.285) vs. right handed pitching and have been striking out 19.4% of the time. Harvey is safe in all formats.
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 37.75 DK - 20.19
Lance McCullers is an up and coming star in the majors but before he gets to that point he needs to harness his control. Outside of the absolutely horrible 6.15 BB/9 rate though, he has been near elite. He has brought his K rate up from 9.24 last season to a whopping 11.76 so far this year in six starts. He has increased the ground ball rate(46.5% to 59.3%) and while his 4.54 ERA is not great, the xFIP of 3.40 and BABIP of .384 suggests positive regression is coming. If he can limit the walks his high K upside can provide excellent value for DFS at his current price point under $9K on both sites. He will get a home matchup vs. the Reds who rank 26th in wOBA(.298) vs.right handed pitching while striking our 23.1% of the time.
Opponent - SD (Friedrich) Park - @SD
FD - 35.49 DK - 19.07
Joe Ross is another mid range option in a great spot o Friday night. He doesn't provide an elite K upside(7.41 K/9) but has pitched to a 3.01 ERA and has limited opponents to three earned runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts this season. He will get a terrific matchup in an elite pitchers park vs. a team in the Padres who rank dead last in wOBA(.278) and wRC+(75) vs. right handed pitching while strikign out over 24% of the time. He makes an excellent second pitcher option on DraftKings and also a nice option FanDuel with a high probability to pick up the win.
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.04 DK - 9.21
I wouldn't be using him in cash games as June has not been good to him but anytime he faces a lefty he is in play for GPP with his power upside. In fairly equal at bats he has hit close to 100 points better(.271) vs. southpaws with a 123 wRC+. He will be going up against Cincinnati and John Lamb and his low strikeout rate(4.71 K/9), high walk rate(3.64 BB/9) and awful 5.14 ERA so far in 2016. Lamb has also struggled mightily on the road giving up a .430 wOBA and is sitting with a 8.59 ERA.
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.93
Castillo is my top value catcher of the slate. His price is just too low for the matchup. He crushes left handed pitching(.474 wOBA/199 wRC+) and will see, probably the weakest southpaw he has faced all season. Adam Morgan has given up 27 earned runs including eight home runs in his last six starts for a horrid 7.52 ERA. He has struggled equally vs. left handed and right handed batters but has given up seven of his nine home runs to righties. Fire up Castillo in all formats.
Opponent - TOR (Sanchez) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.88 DK - 8.89
Davis will be happy to the Jays are coming to town starting Thursday as he tore them apart last week. He hit a home run(one against Sanchez) and had multiple RBI in all four games pushing his season totals to 16 HR, 39 RBI, and 47 runs scored. Davis strikes out over 30% of the time which take shim out of cash game consideration for me but with his enormous power upside is a fantastic play in tournaments.
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.47 DK - 7.91
He is a bit over priced on DraftKings but the projection system absolutely loves him on a PTS/$ basis over on FanDuel just over $3K. Smoak is a switch hitter and hits well from both sides but has much more power from the left side where he will hit on Friday vs. the Orioles and Mike Wright. He has been up and down this year due to his lower K rate (6.34 K/9) and high walk rate(3.39) which has got him into trouble on a few occasions. The Jays bats are really heating up and if Smoak remains in the five hole he will make a tremendous value at the first base position.
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.36 DK - 11.76
It's rare we get a top priced elite player right at the top of the PTS/$ value on the projection system. It makes sense though as Altuve contributes in all categories and is an absolute fantasy stud. He has the third best average in the majors at .346 and has added 10 HR, 38 RBI, 47 runs scored and 18 stolen bases. He obviously has success vs. both righties and lefties but is much better vs. southpaws with a .459 wOBA and 194 wRC+ this season. He is a great stand alone play or as a part of an Astros stack in tournaments.
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.79 DK - 7
Castro comes in at a value price on both sites and has been paying off his salary consistently since the calendar turned. He is hitting .302 in June with a 105 wRC+ and has added 2 HR's, 5 RBI, and 6 runs scored. He is a career .293 hitter vs. left handed pitching and has been hitting anywhere from third to sixth in the lineup. He makes a safe, low priced cash game option tonight.
Opponent - CIN (Lamb) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.75 DK - 10.45
You guessed. Another Astro hitter in a great spot on Friday night. Correa is similarly priced as Altuve on FanDuel but comes at a nice discount on DraftKings as the 7th priced shortstop tonight. He isn't going to be as safe as Altuve as the average is at a disappointing .257 due to the strikeout rate increasing to 25.4% this season. He does provide value across many categories with a nice combination of power(8 HR) and speed(8 SB) and while he has struggled vs. left handed pitchers this season(.220 avg) it is a small sample size and he is coming off a season where he hit .274 vs. southpaws. The matchup vs. John Lamb will be hard to fade.
Opponent - BOS (Elias) Park - @BOS
FD - 7.43 DK - 6.46
This pick hinges on his spot in the batting order as he has alternated between the top and bottom of the lineup for most of the season. He could still be considered on FanDuel in the mid $2K range but is over priced non DraftKings and should be avoided with better options in the same range. The OBP has been disappointing this year in large part to his low 3.5% walk rate which should get a boost tonight facing Roenis Elias who has a 3.5 BB/9 rate for his career and will be making his first start of the season.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.49 DK - 7.42
Turner is a guy I feel safe with in cash games but feel he lacks the upside for tournaments as the Dodgers struggle to score runs. He hits in the two or three hole for the Dodgers giving him added value for run scoring potential. He is coming into this matchup on a bit of a roll with hits in three straight and four of his last five games with three multi hit efforts and has shown some power as well with three long balls in his last eight games. He is one of the projection systems top plays at third base on a PTS/$ basis.
Opponent - MIN (Dean) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.08
He is definitely not the hitter he once was but he can still provide value for the DFS game if you pick and choose your spots carefully. The projection system feels tonight is one of those prime times to get your money in on A Rod. His high strikeout rate of 29.% and low walk rate of 5.6% matches up well against Pat Dean who walks close to three batters per nine innings and strikes out less than seven. If you are going to play A Rod you need to get him in your lineup when he faces a lefty like tonight as he is close to 40 points better vs. southpaws this season.
Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.74 DK - 9.11
Opponent - ATL (Gant) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.91
The Mets are one of the biggest favorites on the slate with Matt Harvey on the mound and the offense facing an inexperienced pitcher making his 2nd big league start. He started the season off in the bullpen for the Braves and struggled to a 6.17 ERA after giving up eight earned runs in just 11.2 innings. He has high K upside(10.8 K/9) but had a terrible 3.86 BB/9 rate. He went 4.1 innings in his first start vs. the Cubs giving up four hits and two earned runs while walking four. Cespedes and Granderson both make excellent targets who come with power upside. Cespedes has hit 16 HR with an elite 152 wRC+ and 41.8% hard hit ball rate while Granderson has struggled with his average(.223) but has added 12 long balls and a 40.1% hard hit ball rate. With other great stacking options in games with higher totals the Mets could be your sneaky GPP stack of the day at very low ownership.
Opponent - BAL (Wright) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.26
Saunders has provided a nice power boost from the left side of the plate for the Jays in 2016. He is finally healthy(knock on wood) and producing the numbers that everyone has expected from the Canadian throughout his injury plagued career with the Mariners. He has 11 home runs, 23 RBI and 32 runs scored this year with an elite 156 wRC+ and has been the regular cleanup hitter. He will be relied on a bit more in the coming series as Jose Bautista was lifted from the game on Thursday night after crashing into the right field wall injuring his toe. No word on the length of his absence until after the results of the X-Rays. Saunders price is getting a little high for cash games, especially on DraftKings, but makes an excellent tournament choice in a top of the order Blue Jays stack.
Opponent - PHI (Morgan) Park - @PHI
FD - 7.68 DK - 6.53
Since joining the D Backs in mid may, Bourn has seen mixed results with a .256 average but has been getting on base with an above average .330 OBP. He has been at his best when facing left handed pitchers as he is hitting .320 against them vs. a .226 mark against righties. He has also spent time at the leadoff spot vs. left handed pitchers and should only be considered on DraftKings if he is indeed back at the top of the order on Friday. At a low $2K price tag on FanDuel he can used as a punt play no matter where he hits in the order.
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View Comments
Next time you guys stack Boston I'm taking the opposing pitcher on a losing streak
right there with you pinky. although they suggested vmart and i wnet everyone else and payed dearly. tigers fan here as well. cortizone got conforto and vmart boosted
I'm pretty sure you're suppose to do the opposite of what this site says. I continuously keep coming back here for help although it's never helped me. Not 1 stinking time. It's like they knew the bo six were gonna struggle. Making money off people by giving them the wrong info is wack.
Go back and look at yesterday's write-up. Vmart, papi, miggy, castellanos, villar, Bryce, ajones and grandy all went yard. All mentioned in the picks article for the price of free99
You fools! Someone told you to stack the top scoring team in baseball against Tyler Wilson and you believed it????
Seriously, things like this happen in baseball and if you need someone to think for you and tell you that the Red Sox had a good match up yesterday, then maybe you should save your money.
Remember guys, the numbers may say one thing and suggest a player is good. But the pitchers and hitters are all human and big leaguers. A pitcher can't get rocked every time he pitches and batters can't have a great offensive night every night. The Reds Sox looked great on paper, but it just didn't happen. That's baseball and the life of DFS. On to today.
Baseball is volatile. I go in thinking this is the team in the best matchups and everything statistical to back it up, they still have to do what I think they are going to do.
I think u guys make awesome suggestions. Really turned my game around. Appreciate all the hard work. And of course ur optimizer is right on the money
6/16/16.....the day in which my investment in the optimizer paid for itself. Thankyou gentlemen and the ladies who let you do fantasy sports for a living. 24th out of 50,000!