Michael Pineda delivers a pitch in the first inning.
Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @LAD
FD - 42.99 DK - 28.26
It's our first truly full day of baseball, and 15 games (including 12 on the late slate) means plenty of options. Though you've got nice choices at various price points, we think it's borderline imperative that you get some exposure to Hill, and tourneys are the ideal place to do that. The late-blooming 37-year-old is harder to trust in cash games, because he's about as fragile as they come. The Dodgers rarely let him work deeper than the sixth, and this early in the season the hook is likely to be extra-quick. That limits his probability for earning a win and/or a quality start, but otherwise, the upside is virtually limitless. Since his Sept. 2015 re-birth, Hill is whiffing better than 10.5 per 9, and despite the odds that they sunk your Kenta Maeda lineups last night, the Padres remain a lineup we like to target. They've got the lowest implied run total on the board and if Hill's curveball is diving, expect a healthy number of swings and misses.
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @TB
FD - 34.85 DK - 22.96
Pineda is the prototypical tournament play, and it's never a bad idea to play both sides when he's on the hill. He's an elite strikeout guy and does a fine job of limiting walks. But control and command aren't quite the same thing, and Pineda is prone to leaving a few fat ones over the middle of the zone a few times per outing. When you throw as hard as he does and give up more than your share of fly balls, that's not a great combo. It's one of the primary reasons for the gross disparity between his actual results (4.82 ERA) and his underlying numbers (3.30 xFIP) last season. The strikeouts should be there in this one, as the Rays had the third-highest K% vs. RHP in baseball last season, and if Tropicana Field can help limit the damage of Pineda's expected mistakes, he has a chance of being the best play of the day. Or he could get blasted for three bombs in the first two innings and be an utter bust. Odds of each outcome are relatively significant.
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @MIN
FD - 31.33 DK - 20.76
If you're playing all-day slates and looking to get a little more off the well-beaten path, consider Kennedy, because he excites precisely no one. He's the kind of guy who's been around long enough, and been just above average long enough, that we're all just kind of tired of him. We've all been seduced at one time or another, and likely burned in enough of those instances to develop a Pavlovian avoidance mechanism. But's while that instinct is wholly understandable, it's also sort of dumb -- or at best irrational -- because Kennedy can still be useful when deployed wisely. He gives up fly balls and homers at a disconcerting clip, but he also still knows how to miss bats. He's fanned at least 8 per 9 in each of the last six seasons, and only seven teams in MLB struck out more often against RHP than the Twins last season. Granted, last year's full-season team K-rate is less-than-granular data, and the Twins will roll out a lineup thick with lefties today. Still, there's enough upside here to make Kennedy worth a few flyers in your tournament lineups.
CONSIDER: James Paxton, in a boom-or-bust spot at the Astros.
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