New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino throws to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - LAA (Shoemaker) Park - @SEA
FD - 35.05 DK - 22.99
We've got an awful lot of upper-tier arms going tonight, but none of them -- Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, et. al -- have a better xFIP since the start of 2016 than Paxton (or, if you prefer SIERA, he's second only to Sale). Any way you want to slice up the data, it tells us one thing: Paxton is pitching like a late-blooming stud in the making. He was considered a pretty decent prospect when he made his first MLB appearance back in 2013, but he's taken it to another level lately. And if you'll allow some mild narrative flourish, there's one here to believe in. He started tinkering with a lower arm slot after finding himself back in Triple-A last year, and since then, he's been nails. The control issues that plagued him are gone (1.76 BB/9 since then), and perhaps even more importantly, he found a couple of extra ticks on his fastball, which averaged nearly 97 mph last season and is sitting just below 96 in 2017. The only reservation we have about him tonight is the fact that the Angels don't strike out much (at all). Their 16.7% K-rate vs. LHP is the third-best in baseball, so Paxton's probably a long shot to hit double-digit Ks. Still, he's had at least seven in 7 of his last 8 starts, so something approaching a K per inning is still a distinct possibility, and the Angels have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board, so we're expecting him to be in the hunt for a quality start and a win.
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @SD
FD - 30.73 DK - 20.19
This one's more of an SP2 pick for DK, because even though the price is right on FanDuel, too, if you go with Chatwood there, you're probably going to have to crush it with all your bats to keep pace on a slate loaded with good pitching. Also, on a 15-gamer, there's less of a need to go off the board to find low-ish ownership rates. That said, it's rarely a terrible idea to pick on the Padres in Petco, and the projection system is pretty high on Chatwood from a value perspective. Obviously, we're going to focus on what Chatwood has done away from Coors Field here, and his road numbers aren't bad. The 3.05 career ERA isn't fully supported by the xFIP, but there's nothing wrong with a .305 wOBA allowed. The 4.00 FIP/4.34 xFIP is a product of the fact that Chatwood doesn't strike guys out, but the Padres should help some there. They lead the league with a 26.3% K rate vs. RHP this season, and they're just 24th in wRC+, so the matchup is right. The one thing they do well is hit for power, but Chatwood (0.60 career HRs/9 outside of Coors) plus Petco should be able to keep that in check.
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