Indians at Orioles July 16, 2011
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Opponent - TOR (Undecided) Park - @TOR
FD - 35.17 DK - 23.19
We've got a pretty nice menu of pitchers to choose from tonight, including nine on the 14-game slate who average more than 9 Ks/9 since the beginning of last year. Hopefully, that'll help divert some attention away from Carrasco, because we think the Indians' starter could be a great under-the-radar option -- which is weird to a say for a guy with the best xFIP on the slate over the last year-plus among qualified guys. We think a lot of people will be scared away by the Rogers Centre and by the fact that it looks like the Blue Jays could be getting healthier tonight. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki are expected back any day now, and that can only help a Toronto offense that has been one of the worst in baseball vs. RHP this season (26th in wRC+). But when it comes to Carrasco, we're not overly concerned. Most of the top options tonight are also going to be in hitter-friendly parks, and not many (probably only Scherzer) are as steady as Carrasco. He's turned in quality starts in five straight (and missed one in the opener by one out) en route to a 2.18 ERA and 3.05 xFIP on the season. He hasn't flashed double-digit K upside yet this year, but we know it's there; in fact, he struck out 14 Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre less than a year ago. We're not calling for a repeat of that performance, but we do think he can be a part of GPP-winning lineups tonight.
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @NYM
FD - 29.83 DK - 19.6
For the budget-conscious SP shopper, the options are also plentiful. Charlie Morton's actually our favorite guy in this price range, but since we wrote him up with the cash game picks, we'll pivot to Wheeler here. Julio Urias is another possibility, and the only trouble with him is the fact that loose command often leads to short outings -- which could be exacerbated by the Pirates' patient approach. Wheeler has had similar problems, but he's got a better matchup for those purposes, because the Giants don't work the count. They're in the bottom third of the league in pitches seen per PA, and 27th in BB% vs. RHP. Aside from that, they're pacing toward the Triple Crown of Trash Offenses right now, ranking dead last in wRC+, tied for last in wOBA and dead last in ISO vs. righties this season. Wheeler's first month back in the bigs hasn't been exactly smooth, but he's shown glimpses of the stuff that made him a well-regarded prospect (8.54 Ks/9, 3.74 xFIP) and after facing the Nationals in his last two outings, the Giants lineup should look like a bunch of Quad-A dudes.
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