New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino throws to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @SEA
FD - 37.12 DK - 24.3
On a slate that gives us Max Scherzer, Chris Archer, Jacob deGrom, Jake Arrieta and Robbie Ray vs. the Padres, nobody is a bigger favorite than Paxton. So, count Vegas among Paxton's believers, and we're right there with them. The projection system has him slightly off the Scherzer/Archer pace, but he's not far off, and coming at a relative discount, he stands a good chance to deliver the best value among the upper-tier of arms. The late-blooming lefty finally started delivering on his potential last season and he's only improved from there, registering 10.67 Ks/9 with a 1.26 ERA, 1.45 FIP and 2.98 xFIP in 2017. He missed most of May, but looked sharp in his return last time out, striking out six and allowing only three baserunners in 5.1 IP. He was limited to 74 pitches in that outing, and Seattle could be cautious with him, so there's risk of an abbreviated run here. But that's really the only thing we're worried about. The Twins don't strike out a lot vs. LHP, but otherwise, they're fine to pick on, with a .298 wOBA and 84 wRC+ on the season.
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @OAK
FD - 35.44 DK - 23.31
The late career re-birth of Marco Estrada has taken some getting used to. As recently as 2015, he barely missed a bat, striking out just 6.5 per 9 IP. That number climbed to the mid-8s last season, and through 12 starts in 2017, he's up to 10.2/9 while trimming his walks. He's still a fly ball guy, and he'll get burned by the occasional homer, but that's where Oakland Coliseum comes into play with this pick. The atmosphere in Oakland -- plus acres of foul territory -- make this one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. The A's have some legitimate punch, especially since the emergence of Yonder Alonso. They lead baseball in ISO vs. RHP, so playing Estrada comes with risk, but Oakland also strikes out a lot (24 K% vs. RHP), so if Estrada can keep the ball in the yard, there's some sneaky upside at a decent price here.
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