New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino throws to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - NYM (Wheeler) Park - @NYM
FD - 31.65 DK - 20.93
We've got some nice arms on this slate, but once you move past the top tier or so, it gets sketchy pretty quick. Not that every arm in the middle class is weak, but whether it's a bad matchup or a bad park, there's something that has us skittish about most of the guys out there tonight. So while we don't totally love Lester here, we don't mind him at these prices. He's got K-per-inning stuff, and as far as the things that are most directly under his control, he's been pretty close to the same guy he was last year. The walks are up a tick, but his bigger problems appear to be related to BABIP, strand rate and HR:FB ratio, and he's due for some positive regression in all three. Righties are giving him some issues this season (.338 wOBA), but the longer track record is strong (.291 wOBA since the beginning of 2016), so while we're on alert, we're not overly concerned yet. Also, the Mets are below average against southpaws this season (90 wRC+), and Yoenis Cespedes, their biggest lefty killer, looks iffy after leaving Monday's game early. If Cespedes is back in there, we'll have to think twice about using Lester, but without him, this isn't a lineup we're afraid of.
Opponent - CHC (Lester) Park - @NYM
FD - 28.04 DK - 18.71
Or, just pivot to the other side of this matchup -- and for SP2 purposes, that's what I'd prefer, because the DK price is pretty inviting. Despite all the firepower lurking in the Cubs lineup, they have some very real and ongoing issues with RHP in 2017. After getting shut down by deGrom on Monday, they now rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ and wOBA vs. righties this season. To put that into context, that's better than the Padres and Phillies by only the slimmest possible margins. Now, we still don't think these struggles will continue indefinitely, and Wheeler isn't on the same level as deGrom, but he's good enough to prolong the Cubs' problems for another day. He's averaging 8 Ks/9 in 11 starts this season, which is fine, but he's walking too many guys to let us feel completely comfortable with him, even though he's been excellent at limiting homers. In sum, we don't want to pin our GPP hopes on him keeping pace with the Clayton Kershaws of the world, but he looks pretty solid in supporting role.
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