Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/15/17

Welcome back for another night of daily fantasy baseball. After a week full of split slates we get back to normal with a full 15 game schedule tonight including another game in Coors Field. Combine that extremely high run line with the fact we have Scherzer on the mound and we are once again faced with some tough decisions, especially in cash games. Let's jump in and take a look at some of the top plays.

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Pitchers

Max Scherzer FD 12400 DK 12900
Opponent - NYM (Matz) Park - @NYM
FD - 42.48 DK - 27.96

From a raw points perspective, Max Scherzer is the elite ace at the top tonight. He has been absolutely dominant lately winning four straight starts while holding opponents to two earned runs or less and striking out 10 or more batters in each. That brings his season-long strikeout rate up to 12.17 K/9, trailing only Chris Sale by less than half a strikeout per nine. The matchup could be better vs. the Mets who rank in the top half of the league vs. right-handed pitching but Scherzer is not your average righty. I don't expect him to have trouble with the Mets this time around like he did earlier in the season. The price has started to come back down on DraftKings and is below $13K for the first time in three games but has reached a season high on FanDuel making it a little harder to get him in there but either way, he is the top pitcher tonight and safe in all formats.

Luis Severino FD 9900 DK 11500
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @OAK
FD - 37.13 DK - 24.39

Look at the top PTS/$ plays at the pitcher position, we see Luis Severino right near the top and on FanDuel a case can be made for him in cash to upgrade the bats throughout your lineup. He has been very impressive this season with a 2.75 ERA and supporting 2.98 xFIP and has held opponents to two earned runs or less in five straight and six of his last seven starts. In the process, he has struck out seven or more batters six times while limiting the free passes and has finally been rewarded winning three of his last four. The Yankees are currently -140 favorites as they continue their series in Oakland where Severino gets a big park upgrade. The park isn;t the only thing to like about the matchup as the A's rank in the bottom third of the league in wOBA & wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching and are striking out just over 24% of the time. Severino is a safe play in all formats.
James Paxton FD 8700 DK 8800
Opponent - TEX (Ross) Park - @TEX
FD - 28.3 DK - 18.89

Whether you are looking for a nice SP2 on DraftKings or a GPP pivot on FanDuel, Paxton fits the profile tonight. He has struggled a bit in his last two starts giving up three and four earned runs to the Twins and Blue Jays but overall it has been having a very successful season for Paxton. He is one of just a handful of pitchers who is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings and has given up just two home runs all year(4.2% HR/FB rate). The issue lately has been the walks and with a career walk rate over a full run lower than what he is running currently, I see it turning around and Paxton getting back to elite status. The park factor is uninspiring tonight but the matchup is elite as the Rangers rank 28th in wOBA(.285), last in wRC+(71), and strike out more than any other team vs. left-handed pitching. Take advantage before his salary is once again back in the $9K range on both sites.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.62

While Buster Posey and Gary Sanchez sit at the top of the salary ranks on both sites at the catcher position, you can get very similar upside with Grandal tonight at a much lower cost. This gives him the PTS/$ edge and with some nice high-end pitchers available every dollar saved will be huge. While the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati is not Coors Field, it close to the next best thing and the matchup is a good one vs. Wojciechowski who comes in with a 5.61 xFIP after giving up 10 earned runs over his last 15 innings including four home runs. Grandal went 0 for 4 against him just six days ago but we do not focus on small sample sizes here at DFSR. Roll with Grandal in all formats.

Derek Norris FD 2500 DK 2800
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @DET
FD - 7.85 DK - 6.11

If you are looking to punt the position consider the Norris vs. Norris matchup. No, not Chuck Norris. We all know who would win that matchup. Derek Norris is not going to provide much upside and hits down in the order but is a much better hitter vs. left-handed pitching and helps you get to Scherzer and Severino while not limiting the upside throughout the rest of your lineup. He isn't a safe option at all in cash games but worth a spot in tournaments tonight.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - MIN (Turley) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.4

The first base position is absolutely loaded once again and EE is sitting right near the top of both of the raw points projections tonight. He gets one of the top matchups at the position going up against young Nik Turley making his second career start after giving up eight hits and four earned runs to the Giants in his debut. The Indians come with a much more powerful offense that includes Encarnacion who has heated up in June as he is hitting .310 with a .412 wOBA and 160 wRC+. He has also gone back to his early days when he hit lefties better as he carries a .370 wOBA and 131 wRC+ into tonight's matchup vs. another southpaw. His best value is most definitely on FanDuel where is the 14th most expensive option at the position.

Eric Thames FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - SD (Diaz) Park - @MIL
FD - 13.65 DK - 10.67

The system has been back on Thames lately and it's great timing as he has home runs in back to back games bringing his total to 17 for the season. The power is for real! He hits in a great park where the Brewers will return to tonight to start a series with Padres. Like Encarnacion, Thames will face a young pitcher making his second career start. The difference is that Diaz started the year out of the bullpen and has stunk up the show, to put it bluntly. Through 22 games(26 IP), he has given up 25 hits, five of them for home runs(15.6% HR/FB rate) and has posted a 19:16 strikeout to walk ratio. With a 25% K rate, Thames isn't the most consistent option but he has a ton of upside with a .404 wOBA and 147 wRC+ and even if Diaz only goes a few innings, the Padres bullpen is among the worst in the league with a 4.90 ERA and 15% HR/FB rate against.

Second Base

Robinson Cano FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Ross) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.45

It is always a good sign when we see a hitter who sits Top 3 in both raw points and PTS/$. Tonight this is Robinson Cano of the Mariners who comes in scorching hot with hits in eight straight and has recorded a .378 wOBA and 141 wRC+ since the start of May. After many thought the power faded with a dip to 14 and 21 home runs in his first two seasons with the Mariners, he put up an elite season in 2017 with 39 home runs, 103 RBI and 107 runs scored. He has only hit 11  home runs so far in 2017 but has seen the flyball rate only drop 3% while maintaining a mid 30% hard hit rate so we can expect those numbers to come around. Tonight he gets a matchup vs. Tyson Ross making his return to the big leagues after shoulder surgery in 2016. Through four rehab/extended spring training starts, he has really struggled with a 7.71 ERA while striking out just over five batters per nine. Cano is the top play at the position and safe in all formats.

Jose Pirela FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.04 DK - 7.39

This is a classic case of "get it while it's hot" with Jose Pirela. He has been a career minor leaguer with the Yankees and Padres but is making the most of his opportunity this time around. He comes into tonight with hits in seven of his nine games with six multi-hit efforts and two home runs. That equates to a ridiculous .520 wOBA and 230 wRC+ and while this is not sustainable, the price is right especially on FanDuel where Scherzer's salary has reached a season high. Another thing he has going for him is the opportunity as the manager was quick to get him in the leadoff spot and leave him there.

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Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Turley) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.88

Try not to get too caught up in the average as Francisco Lindor is one of the up and coming superstars at the position. Almost every other metric is right in line with what we saw last season(wOBA, wRC+, OBP, K rate, BB rate) and he has actually started to hit for more power. After posting a flyball rate below 30% last season, he is currently over 43% in 2017 and has already hit 12 home runs after hitting just 15 all of last season and 12 in 2015. The one number that sticks out to me is the BABIP of .259 which is 60 points lower than his career average pointing to the fact he is getting unlucky and it makes sense as he has also increased his hard contact rate(33%). Be patient with Lindor as the average will come back to form and in the meantime, enjoy the power upside he has developed, especially against left-handed pitching where he holds a .373 wOBA and 133 wRC+.

Aledmys Diaz FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 8.73 DK - 6.96

Diaz isn't going to flash the upside of other shortstops but has been one of the most consistent options in the low to mid range of salary. He comes into tonight with hits in four straight and 10 of his last 12 games with four doubles and two home runs. The only knock is that he just doesn't walk(4.4%) which has resulted in the manager moving him down the lineup to the six hole. Combine the hot streak with the great matchup and projected low ownership and you have a salary relief option who is safe in all formats.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 4500 DK 5200
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @COL
FD - 14.06 DK - 10.73

Arenado once again sits atop the overall raw points projections in the system and by a pretty wide margin. He is once again playing at home in Coors Field and is coming off a huge night where he picked three doubles and drove in four runs en route to a 10-9 Rockies victory. Tonight, while not facing a lefty, gets a matchup vs. Jeff Samardzija who has struggled in 2017 and while the underlying numbers suggest he will bounce back, it won't be in Coors vs. the Rockies. He has faced them twice this year and just like Matt Moore has gotten beaten up both times for a combined 11 earned runs in back to back starts in April. It is very unlikely you will be able to fit both Arenado and Scherzer into a cash lineup and feel comfortable about it but he makes a very high upside GPP play tonight.

Kris Bryant FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - PIT (Williams) Park - @PIT
FD - 12.89 DK - 9.93

If you are not paying up for Arenado or Lamb, the projection system actually prefers Kris Bryant from a PTS/$ standpoint. Chances are you will also be able to get the defending National League MVP at an ownership discount thanks to the overall struggles of the Cubs offense. While the average, RBI and runs scored have dropped off for Bryant, he has sustained a very similar wOBA(.394) and wRC+(144) as last season and with 15 home runs already is on pace for another 30+ season. He hits in the top third of the lineup and gets a matchup vs. righty Trevor Williams who has an average pitch repertoire and doesn't miss many bats with a low 5.9 K/9 rate on the season. Look for the Cubs to roll on Friday night led by their best player.
Yunel Escobar FD 3100 DK 3300
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @LAA
FD - 8.59 DK - 6.79

On the value end of things, we have Yunel Escobar who has been a very serviceable option for the Angels. He spent some time on the DL but has been very consistent since returning at the start of June, recording a .311 average and getting on base at a .380 clip. The power has not fully come back yet but he is getting the full opportunity as he is now the everyday cleanup hitter while the Angels try to survive without Mike Trout. The good news is that he gets a plus matchup tonight vs. Ian Kennedy who has looked terrible lately giving up four or more earned runs in six straight starts with eight home runs. If you are rolling a ton of Scherzer tonight, Escobar makes a nice option with consistency that won't break the bank.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon FD 4800 DK 5400
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @COL
FD - 12.96 DK - 10.72

Back to Coors Field kick off the outfield picks tonight. Blackmon has been the spark plug that ignites the offense from the leadoff spot and has some fantastic numbers that rival those from last season when he really broke out. He comes into tonight's action with an elite .325/.373/.603 slash line and while he is striking out more, he appears to have added some additional power. The fly ball rate is up over 40% while the hard contact rate has also come up from last season which has resulted in 15 home runs through mid-June and identical RBI and run totals with 53. Like I mentioned with Arenado, the Rockies get an elite matchup vs. the Shark who they have beaten up this season on I don't see that changing tonight in Coors Field.
Dexter Fowler FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.34 DK - 8.21
Stephen Piscotty FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.99

If both are back in the top third of the lineup tonight, they make an excellent outfield stacking combination that come at a premium PTS/$ value. They combined for three hits last night including a home run and three runs batted in and get an even better matchup tonight. The Cards will get a park boost traveling to Baltimore to take on the O's and they get to face Kevin Gausman who has been nothing short of a dumpster fire this season. He is coming off a start where he allowed seven earned runs to the Yankees while striking out no one and walking six and that wasn't even his worst start of the season. That says a lot right there, doesn't it?  He has also given up at least one home run in five of his last six starts. Both Fowler and Piscotty have struggled to hit for average so far in 2017 but provide upside in other areas. Piscotty has been slightly better getting on base(.369 OBP) while Fowler has shown more upside with nine doubles, four triples and nine home runs coming into tonight. Provided they are back the two/three hole tonight, both are safe in all formats.

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