Indians at Orioles July 16, 2011
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Opponent - CHW (Lopez) Park - @CHW
FD - 39.41 DK - 25.83
Upon first glance of this slate, it doesn't take long to figure out who the top option is at pitcher. Even with a full slate on our hands, the pitching is pretty awful. There's a clear step down from the top dog and the field. Carlos Carrasco and the Indians will look to bounce back tonight after Danny Salazar pulled a Danny Salazar last night. Carrasco is far more consistent than Salazar and has the ability to go much deeper in games. He's been phenomenal on the season, sporting a combined .288 wOBA and a 10+ K/9. He faces off with the White Sox, who are bad. I don't care if they put up a million runs last night. This is an offense that has struck out +25+ of the time against righties and have posted a .297 wOBA since the break. The ballpark isn't great, but that's the only thing working Carrasco Carrasco in this spot. Vegas has the Sox projected for just under 3 runs and easily the lowest on the slate. In cash games, I can't find a reason to get cute.
This is McCullers first game off of the DL and 99% of the time, I would steer clear completely. This slate is just very weird. Both sites also have him priced down where you don't really need the typical Lance McCullers production. He's still a top 10-15 pitcher in baseball and threw 60 pitches in a simulated game a week ago. I expect around 80-90 and while that's typically a huge red flag, I think I'll take 90 Lance McCullers pitches against the Mariners than take a shot on any of these more expensive, riskier options. With that being said, McCullers is obviously far better in cash games where upside isn't as important. The Mariners aren't a bad offense by any means, but Safeco Field is one of the biggest parks in baseball and they have struggled there with a .299 wOBA. McCullers isn't in a perfect spot here, but nobody else is. Go ahead and take a shot and hope that he's fully healthy and ready to K some Mariners.
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.53 DK - 7.84
With Gary Sanchez suspended for this series against the Orioles, we'll look at Yasmani Grandal as our top catcher of the night. Grandal isn't nearly the hitter Sanchez is, but he's solid in his own right. He's also rarely over 15-20% owned and right in the middle of a top 3 lethal defense. Taijuan Walker isn't too bad of a pitcher, but he has struggled against lefties ever since coming to the majors. It's dropped to a .337, but still isn't where it needs to be. Grandal has held a .341 against righties and has always been extremely solid. He's definitely not a must and if you're looking to pay down, that's fine. You just have to acknowledge that Grandal is a bit safer than any guy you'll run into.
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 9.06 DK - 6.98
With a game in Coors Field, I typically ignore it. However, with catcher being so putrid, let's point out a great option. Nick Hundley may not be a name that rings any bells, but he was a pretty good hitter for the Rockies last year as ended with 10 homers in less than 1/2 of a season. He's actually very dominant against lefties, dating all the way back to 2014. He's posted a .421 wOBA against them and while it'll surely drop a little, he's definitely good against them and in Coors Field, has to be one of the top picks at the position for an HR. Kyle Freeland is nothing special, allowing a .340 wOBA and 13 homers in just over 100 innings. Hundley is a solid play tonight in both cash games and tournaments. Make sure he's cheap, as some other sites have him priced up.
Opponent - BOS (Fister) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.28
First base is actually a lot uglier than most nights. We have a bunch of solid tournament options, but no Joey Votto or Freddie Freeman in a dominant match-up. What we do have is Justin Smoak facing off with Doug Fister. Fister has obliterated righties with a .253 wOBA, but weighs it out with a .357 against lefties. Smoak on the other hand, a switch hitter, has sported a .367 wOBA against righties and has hit 37 homers. He could very well add to that number tonight and send one of those bum sinkers over the wall. The Blue Jays aren't a team I'll have much of as a whole, but Smoak is one of the best 1-offs of the slate, if not the best.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.2 DK - 8.44
Joey Gallo is another one of the fringe options who have a ton of upside, but you can't really rely on him in cash games. He has matched Smoak with 37 homers on the year, but has done it in nearly 100 less at-bats. He has proven himself as one of the premier power hitters in baseball and he has the ability to hit 2 in any match-up. He faces off with Julio Teheran, who is one of my favorite pitchers to target with power lefties. Teheran has struggled against lefties since coming to the majors and it doesn't look like it'll ever change. So far in 2017, Teheran has allowed a .339 wOBA and 16 homers in just 89 innings of work. SunTrust Park has played well for lefties and while it's not an upgrade from Arlington, it's about even. Gallo has one of the best shots on the slate to hit an HR and you can never go wrong with him against a homer-prone righty in a small ballpark.
Opponent - CHW (Lopez) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.61 DK - 11.13
Jose Ramirez is always bouncing around from position to position as the Indians need him and it ends up getting the sites a little funky. He's bounced between 2B and 3B all year, so just play him wherever he's at. The Indians offense figures to be one of the most popular, facing off with Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez is a young righty who is far from ready for the majors. He's only pitched 10 innings and while they've been bad, you can't conclude much from that. He was average in the minors and didn't stick out as a guy that need some starts. The rotation is just pitiful and they might as well give some youngsters a chance. Jose Ramirez is a dominant switch hitter who prefers righties (.393), but demolishes everyone. He's one of the hotter hitters in baseball and while it may drive his ownership up, I don't think it'll be out of hand. Ramirez is an elite play at whatever position he's eligible at.
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 5.35 DK - 4.12
It will be very interesting to see how the general public treats this Yankees @ Gausman match-up. If you look at just the stats, the Yankees should put up 30 runs. He's given up a combined .368 wOBA and has been walking nearly 3 batters per 9 innings. If you look at what's really going on, it's not that clear. Since Gausman has started throwing his change more, he's allowed more than 4 runs just once in 5 games. Previous to that, it was nearly every time he touched the ball. Gausman is nowhere near a good pitcher, but he's better than he was a few months ago. He will continue to struggle through the rest of the season. Though, with reverse splits, I love Starlin Castro. He hits both sides of the mound well and has the HR power, but doesn't swing for the fences every time. He's safe in cash games and has the upside necessary to deliver in tournaments. The Yanks as a whole are one of the riskier tournaments on the board with the most upside. Gausman is truly a book or bust pitcher. Don't be hesitant to take a shot because he's been lucky for a couple games.
Opponent - CHW (Lopez) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.52 DK - 10.85
Shortstop is the ugliest position outside of the typical catcher spot. We do have a solid option in Francisco Lindor, but he's expensive and pretty prohibitive if you want to stack an expensive team. However, he may very well be worth it. He's posted a .346 wOBA on the season and has some of the highest HR upside at the position, as well as stolen base potential. He faces off with Reynaldo Lopez, who's a 23-year-old righty that walked over 4 batters per 9 in AAA. He's not a great pitcher just yet and he's fully expected to struggle here, as evident by the Vegas 5.81 implied total. Lindor is the top option at SS and it'll just come down to whether or not he fits your roster construction.
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.92
Jose Reyes isn't a guy I have rostered much at all this season, but SS isn't great and you can't help but notice how he is hitting the baseball. He currently holds a 7-game hitting streak and has 11 hits in those games. He has an 1 HR and 3 doubles in the stretch as well. While we hate to rely on a recent hot streak, there isn't much at the position and we see a very strong match-up here. Nick Pivetta has given up a .386 combined wOBA and has a huge stolen base issue. While Citi Field isn't a great ballpark for power, it plays into Reyes' speed with the deep power alleys. He's very cheap on FanDuel and you can play him while paying up for a few more bats. All in all, SS is pretty wide open and you can go a lot of different ways. In tournaments, a lot of people will just grab whatever SS is on their favorite stack, which is another great way to go.
Opponent - TOR (Biagini) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.99 DK - 9.37
Third base always has a lot of options, which is fun in tournaments. Rafael Devers is my favorite of the bunch, coming in against Joe Biagini and the Blue Jays. Biagini is a very average pitcher, but he struggles against lefties. In just under 100 innings, he's allowed a .338 wOBA and a 35% hard contact rate. He moves into Fenway Park and Vegas fully expects him to struggle. Rafael Devers has been amazing to start the season and it's certainly not a fluke. He's posted a .399 combined wOBA and it's +.410 in Fenway Park. He's fairly priced on both sites and is right in the middle of a lineup projected to put up nearly 6 runs. Devers is a quality option in all formats.
Opponent - SEA (Leake) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.07 DK - 9.58
Alex Bregman is a pretty weird hitter if we're being honest. It seems like he goes from being purely bad to great in a matter of months and right back again. Maybe he was just going through some injury issues earlier in the season, but they are definitely gone at this point. Since the all-star break, Bregman has sported a .433 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He is moving into the spacious Safeco Field, but his homers will go out anywhere. With that being said, he's far from power reliant in this lineup. He will have a couple RBI opportunities and has as much upside as anyone at the position. He faces off with Mike Leake, who is very, very average. He's allowed a .326 wOBA on the season and shouldn't last very long against these Astros. They're projected to put up 5.54 runs and Bregman should play a key part.
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @MIA
FD - 14.31 DK - 10.75
Giancarlo Stanton is on pace to hit well over 60 home runs. He's currently at 53 and it seems like he's spitting balls out of the park on a nightly basis. I'm not sure why pitchers are giving him anything to hit, but I guess unwritten rules are more important than their numbers and in turn their careers. Either way, he's seeing pitches in the zone. He's held a .483 wOBA against lefties on the season and has 13 homers against them in less than 110 at-bats. Unbelievable. He faces Gio Gonzalez tonight, who's a soft-rising lefty with solid off-speed K pitches. He's hit him well in the last and I see no reason to avoid Stanton. Gio is at best a slightly above average pitcher. He's facing off with the only thing that may be able to stop Hurricane Irma.
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.16
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.18 DK - 8.39
We've yet to touch on the Cubs, but also didn't mention Gerrit Cole. He's a very good pitcher overall, but he struggles against lefties and has been no better as of recent. He's given up a .344 wOBA on the season and should have some serious HR issues in this ballpark. The Cubs lefties are all in play and I don't hate the team stack at all. They can put up double digit runs in the blink of an eye and are often relatively low-owned due to pricing. Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist have both hit righties to a 341+ wOBA and the similarities end there. Zobrist is a bit safer in cash games and you can almost guarantee he will get involved with a run or two. Schwarber may produce a run or two by himself.
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @NYM
FD - 4.33 DK - 3.34
If you need a spot to pay down, Hyun-soo Kim is a phenomenal way to go in the OF. First of all, make sure he's in the order. He does typically play against righties, but not always. Kim is a very good hitter against righties and does provide value to an MLB lineup. In just over 300 plate appearances dating back to last year, he's held a .347 wOBA against righties with a 34.5% hard contact rate. It's weird to say that he's facing Matt Harvey and for it to be a good thing. It just doesn't feel right. Either way, Harvey will be pitching here and I'm not expecting too much. He's coming off the DL for the first time in months and is expected to go no more than 80 pitches. He's had serious troubles against lefties throughout the season (.347) and an even bigger one with the long ball. Camden Yards is one of the best hitting parks in the league and you can definitely expect some runs. All in all, the Phillies are a great team to grab a 1-off from.
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View Comments
Hyun Soo-Kim is playing for the Phillies and is not at Camden Yards. You might need to update that info to Citi Field.
Yep, changed all except that one. thanks for the catch. Sorry 'bout that.