Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/19/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 10600 DK 12800
Opponent - ATL (Gohara) Park - @ATL
FD - 45.34 DK - 29.93

There's no shortage of solid arms on tonight's slate, so if the fact that Scherzer is coming off a pair of shaky outings worries you -- including a rough one last week against these same Braves -- so be it. You've got other options. But the projection system thinks we'd be silly to shy away from the guy who's been one of the best pitchers in the game in recent years, and I tend to agree. Scherzer still ranks in the top five this season in ERA, FIP and Ks/9 this season, so the fact that he let his last start get away from him with four walks in the seventh inning is more than likely just an aberration. Meanwhile, the Braves remain a bottom-tier lineup. They rank 26th in wRC+ and 28th in team ISO vs. RHP this season, so the odds of them roughing up Scherzer for a second time are long. Don't believe us? Check with Vegas, where the Nats have opened up as a -215 favorite.

Zack Godley FD 9600 DK 11100
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @SD
FD - 38.15 DK - 25.1

Scherzer's our guy on FanDuel where he's coming about $1K cheaper than what he usually costs, but if you wanted to save a little bit on DraftKings, there's an argument to be made for Godley. He's nowhere near the established commodity Scherzer is, but in 2017, he's been pretty studly. He enters his 24th start of the season with a 3.00 ERA that's supported by a 3.30 FIP and 9.5 Ks/9 with a 55% ground ball rate. That's a nice mix, and it's all the more impressive when you consider that his home park is one of baseball's best offensive environments. He'll be moving to the other end of the park factor spectrum tonight, and while Petco isn't quite the offense killer it used to be, it still favors pitchers heavily. And speaking of pitcher-friendly variables, how about this Padres offense? Despite some unforeseen solid individual seasons (anybody ever heard of Jose Pirela before this year?), they still rank 28th in wRC+ and have the second highest K% (25.1%) vs. RHP. That's not enough to give Godley a ceiling on par with Scherzer, but he's in a good spot to return nice SP1 value tonight anyway.

Collin McHugh FD 7700 DK 8000
Opponent - CHW (Giolito) Park - @HOU
FD - 34.15 DK - 22.41

Ok, I doubt anybody is waking up in the morning all geeked to build some Collin McHugh lineups, but these are the kinds of situations we often find ourselves in late in the season, when September call-ups and teams rolling out any warm body they can find water down the field of prospective arms. That's partially what's happening here, because there's not an awful lot to get excited about off the bargain rack on this slate and those who are even a little bit exciting come with red flags from either the park or the matchup. Enter McHugh, who evokes all the adrenaline of an accounting lecture. I mean, he's fine. He's got a 3.61 ERA, a 4.19 FIP and 8.18 Ks/9 in nine starts this season, and his career numbers aren't that dissimilar. But probably the biggest thing he's got going for him is that he's facing the White Sox, who have some interesting young pieces, but aren't the kind of lineup that intimidates us -- or Vegas -- quite yet. McHugh and the Astros have opened up as a -215 favorite, equal with Scherzer and the Nats for biggest on the board, and the White Sox have one of the lowest implied run totals.

Catcher

Chris Iannetta FD 2600 DK 4000
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @SD
FD - 11.51 DK - 8.56

The park isn't ideal, and neither is the DK price, but we'll probably have a hard time looking anywhere else for our catcher on FanDuel. Travis Wood has been bombed by righties this season, giving up a .395 wOBA and .212 ISO, and Iannetta has been great vs. southpaws (.407/.214). If he's back in the No. 2 hole -- where he's made a bit of a home for himself lately -- he's looking like an every-lineup guy on FD.

Mike Zunino FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.49 DK - 7.83

Zunino is about a volatile as they come. With a 38 K% and a .256 ISO, he's the epitome of a boom-or-bust play, but the chances of goose egg are mitigated tonight, and that makes it a good time to give him a look. Martin Perez fans less than 5 per 9 IP vs. R this season, and while he doesn't give up loads of homers, 1.28 HR/9 and a 45% ground ball rate in the split isn't exactly intimidating. Meanwhile, Zunino has done major damage vs. LHP this season, posting a .395 wOBA and .325 ISO. He still strikes out a bunch, though, and his FanDuel price is probably more than we'd like to pay when Iannetta is significantly cheaper. But the value potential on DK puts him squarely in play.

First Base

Joey Votto FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - STL (Flaherty) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.26 DK - 10.73

This one's pretty simple. Jack Flaherty had a great run in 25 minor league starts this season, but he's 21 years old and making just his fourth start, and Joey Votto is one of the best hitters on the planet. The stats we could roll out in support of Votto's greatness are virtually limitless, but for today, we'll limit it to this: he's got a .429 wOBA, a .260 ISO, and he's walked nearly twice as many times as he's struck out vs. RHP this season. Meanwhile, Flaherty is yet to impress at the big-league level, and his low-ish ground ball rates make him extra vulnerable in the Great American Smallpark. Of course, it's going to be tough to pay Votto's DK price if you're also paying top dollar at SP, but if you find a way to fit him in, we think it'd be wise.

Danny Valencia FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.02

Like we were saying re: Perez earlier, not a ton of HRs allowed, but that's fine. At these prices we don't need bombs to keep us in cash contention. And while Valencia's numbers have tapered off some in 2017, there's nothing wrong with a punt play who's sporting a .350 wOBA and .193 ISO vs. LHP.

Consider: Paul Goldschmidt. Votto got the edge based on the park advantage, but the matchup for Goldy is a great one.

Second Base

Ian Kinsler FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - OAK (Gossett) Park - @DET
FD - 11.3 DK - 9.07

To be honest, you guys, 2B is looking pretty rough tonight. It's not that there aren't guys we like -- there just aren't guys we like at prices we like, and if we're paying up on offense, we've got other positions we'd rather spend on. So, we're moving down the food chain here in search of value. Kinsler's maybe not an obvious place to start, because he's been kinda trash vs. RHP this season. The good news is Daniel Gossett hasn't been any better. The Oakland rookie comes in with a 5.02 ERA, a 4.73 FIP and a .210 ISO allowed vs. R this season. As for Kinsler, it's kinda hard to explain exactly why he's fallen so hard. He's pulling the ball less, and he's traded some line drives in favor of more fly balls, but he's also making more hard contact. And while a .310 xwOBA isn't great, it's a heck of a lot better than his .287 actual wOBA in the split, so there's some bad luck at play here, too. But really, this pick is all about a weak opposing starter and Kinsler's spot atop a lineup that's expected to score 5+ runs tonight.

Rougned Odor FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - SEA (Leake) Park - @SEA
FD - 8.7 DK - 7.01

But if you're going for value, why not just go all the way? Like we've talked about before with Odor, his 14% pop-up rate and 24 K% means nearly 40 percent of his at-bats are resulting in automatic outs, and that's obviously troublesome. He's also in a pretty ugly funk right now (two hits in last nine games), so if you're the kind of player who bets on hot/cold streaks, be warned. But we're willing to ignore all of the above once his price dips this low, because punt plays who are closing in 30 HRs, holding a .232 split ISO and can swipe a bag are a pretty rare find.

Shortstop

Paul DeJong FD 2900 DK 4700
Opponent - CIN (Stephens) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.37

Check out that price disparity between the two sites and it's pretty clear on which site we're recommending you get your cash game exposure here. DeJong has become the latest under-the-radar Cardinals prospect to exceed expectations in the majors, slamming 22 HRs in less than 400 at-bats in his rookie season. And while he's at his best against LHP, his numbers against righties are more than solid (.341 wOBA, .223 ISO).  ut the upside on FanDuel is too good to pass up.

Tim Beckham FD 3500 DK 4100
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.43

We're not really loving any of the other value options at SS tonight, so we're leaning more toward the middle tier, because even though Pomeranz has been tough on righties over the last couple of years, we see upside with Beckham. Obviously, most of that has to do with his excellence since coming over from Tampa at the trading deadline. Since then, he's posting a .376 wOBA and .279 ISO vs. LHP. And while Camden Yard is known best for its short porch in right, it's also a top-10 park for HR factors for righties.

Third Base

Rafael Devers FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.31 DK - 8.06

Devers has cooled off some since lighting up the league upon arrival and has slid down to seventh in the order lately. That's obviously less than ideal, but we'll take it since we should still be getting four shots in one of baseball's best parks for lefty power. Gausman has been a much better pitcher in the second half of 2017, but that's mostly due to improvement vs. righties. Against lefties, he's still yielding a .363 wOBA since the All-Star break -- identical to his first half number. Meanwhile, Devers has actually been better vs. southpaws so far, but the sample size is still way too small to put any stock into that. Overall, he's got a very respectable .347 wOBA and .189 ISO through his first 196 PAs, which is about all you can ask for at this price point.

Matt Chapman FD 2600 DK 3000
Opponent - DET (Bell) Park - @DET
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.68
Speaking of bottom-of-the order value, we'd be a lot more excited about Chapman if he were to climb back into the No. 5 slot, but even in the bottom third, we're fine with it in this matchup and at these prices. Chad Bell is a 28-year-old rookie who climbed into the rotation when Verlander departed, and though we haven't seen much of him, what he's shown in 54.2 IP this season makes us happy to grab righties against him. He's giving up a .403 wOBA and .224 ISO in the split, and has yet to complete five full innings, which means we should be getting a taste of baseball's worst bullpen, as well. Chapman has actually been better vs. RHP this season, but even though he strikes out a ton, we're fine with his .182 ISO vs. lefties in the right matchup, and this one qualifies.

Outfield

Nelson Cruz FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @SEA
FD - 14.46 DK - 10.82
Mitch Haniger FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @SEA
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.22

Ok. Lots of Seattle righties in this article. And while the projection system loves picking on Martin Perez, I'm not sure it's optimal to play all of your Mariners in one cash game lineup. Don't get me wrong, Perez isn't good or anything. He's not. He's bad. But I'd prefer to diversify in cash and if you really want to load up on Seattle, save the stack for tournaments. Whatever you choose, we think both Cruz and Haniger deserve some consideration. Playing Cruz against a lefty is always a popular move, and even though his numbers are down quite a bit in the split this season, we still see him as a solid play against Perez (.365 wOBA and 5.07 FIP vs. righties). Haniger's reputation is still in the process of being formed, and even though he only has 83 PAs vs. LHP this season, we see plenty to be excited about in what he's done so far -- .352 wOBA, .231 ISO.

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3800 DK 5500
Opponent - NYM (Lugo) Park - @MIA
FD - 13.76 DK - 10.33

You guys know Stanton has 55 HRs this season? I mean, it's not a big secret, right? Somebody might want to alert the people in charge of FD pricing, because they've got him tiered with the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury. That just doesn't make sense. Seth Lugo isn't terrible or anything, and he's probably quite a bit better than his 5+ ERA would have you believe, but we're still talking about a pretty average arm here. And I know FD typically adjusts prices based more on recent performance and Stanton was in a bit of a slide before breaking out with a homer, three runs and four RBIs on Monday, but still. This is the game's most elite home run hitter and they've got him slotted in the middle class, so we're gonna have to take some shots and it's not (all) about price enforcement. Stanton has a .391 wOBA and .326 ISO vs. RHP this season, and Lugo's .179 ISO allowed vs. R doesn't discourage us.

Howie Kendrick FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Gohara) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.24 DK - 9.2

Braves rookie Luiz Gohara looked sharp in his second career last week, holding the Nats to six hits and one earned run while fanning six in 6 IP. Maybe he turns in a repeat performance tonight, but that's a risk we're willing to live with, because Kendrick has been (kinda quietly) excellent against southpaws this season with a .388 wOBA and .195 ISO. Batting order will play a pretty big role in this one; Kendrick has bounced a little between 2nd and 6th vs. LHP lately. He's still in play if he's hitting lower in the order, but if he gets bumped down in favor of Jayson Werth, we might just take Werth at a deeper discount instead.

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