New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino throws to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CIN
FD - 35.66 DK - 23.51
I get it if you can't get too excited about the average K rate and elite ground ball rate that Keuchel gives us tonight. While I do tend to lean Keuchel in cash games, I love the upside that Martinez offers us and will have plenty of exposure in GPP formats. He may also provide us with an ownership discount considering he is coming off his worst start of the season where he gave up seven earned runs to the Cubs. This doesn't concern me too much as CarMart has been solid all season(3.57 ERA/3.59 xFIP) and prior to that start, had held opponents to three or fewer earned runs in eight straight and 10 of his previous 11 starts. The strikeouts are what we are after and for the season CarMart is striking out 9.5 batters per nine while the Reds K 21% of the time vs. right-handed pitching.
Things get a little dicey after Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Martinez, and even Tyler Anderson. If you are all about the risk, consider Jake Arrieta who is back and making his first start since the start of September and is expected to be on a 75-80 pitch count in a good matchup vs. the Brewers who K a ton. James Paxton made his return on a limited pitch count last week and while it was a shaky start, he will be stretched out more tonight vs. the Rangers and the Mariners currently sit as -150 favorites at home. The other pitcher on my radar tonight is Tanner Roark who is a -130 favorite on the road in Atlanta. He has been very consistent lately allowing three or fewer earned runs in eight straight starts and has struck out seven or more in four of his last five starts.
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Tonight's SP sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O4gM-wFjxwNq3-gR3cUWKxzzQ44EsLrGzugIHCfeFkI/edit?usp=sharing