Wizards v/s Thunder 03/14/11
We've got a big Friday coming in the NBA and that means we've also got a lot of big thoughts on players going into the evening. Here we'll take a deeper look at a player (or players) at each position and try to find the truth in the matchups and recent performances. Let's take a look at five thoughts for Friday in the NBA.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 56.45 DK - 60.23
Westbrook’s recent return to Triple-Double Russ has appeared to come at the price of OKC’s ability to actually win games. Over the last six games, Westbrook has averaged a 27/11.5/9 line on 38 minutes and the Thunder have gone 1-5 with the lone win a stunner against the Warriors. They’ve also suffered embarrassing blowout losses to the Magic and Mavericks in the last two. The question here isn’t whether last season’s stat sheet-filling Westbrook can show up but rather should he be taking on this role? It’s going to be a core question going forward for the Thunder. For DFS purposes, as long as he’s going full-on Russ then he is still coming in at something of a value on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Funny enough, the style of play has led to the Thunder falling behind, leading to Coach Billy Donovan needing to run Russ more to play catchup. It’s something like the NBA version of a negative feedback loop. When Westbrook has 20 or more shots in a game the Thunder are 1-8. Less? 7-4. And sure, 20 shots in a game is a somewhat arbitrary starting point, but it does speak to a potentially larger problem for the Thunder.
Tonight he’ll get a bottom-third defensive efficiency team in the Timberwolves who could throw Jimmy Butler his way if Jeff Teague is in the lineup. Otherwise, he’d be seeing some combination of Tyus Jones and Butler. It will be interesting to see if OKC makes any fundamental changes to their approach which would negate some of Westbrook’s fantasy upside, but for now, I think we feel comfortable buying on his recent performance.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 41.5 DK - 42.75
On the one hand, we have a pretty big sample size of what Bradley Beal’s game looks like when John Wall is off the court. Over the last two seasons, Beal goes from a 26.2 usage (per NBAwowy) with Wall on to a 32 usage with Wall off. That’s an incredible bump in touches over a big sample size. Beal becomes the primary scoring threat for the Wiz sans their starting point guard. On the other hand, we have the last two games. The first an 8/2/6 line on 2-11 shooting and the second 21/4/1 line that left him well below value. There’s some context to both performances though. In the first, he was blanketed by Jimmy Butler and struggled to gain separation at all on the offensive end. Without Wall in the mix, the Timberwolves were also happy to bring help on screens and dare the Wiz to have whatever PG was on the court shoot.
Meanwhile, against Philly, he took a shot to the face that sent him to the locker room and later fouled out (not easy for a guard to do in only 23 minutes). While you can’t completely ignore the short term, I think we are still getting solid value on Beal here. His price has barely moved in the last two games and though he does get a stout defender in Avery Bradley, this game should stay close and high 30’s minutes are completely in play. It's also worth noting that Beal's rebounding and assists take healthy upticks with Wall off the court. Considering how scoring dependent Beal's been relative to his fantasy output, even the slightest uptick in other rate stats helps increase his fantasy floor.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 35.07 DK - 35.87
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 19.31 DK - 19.02
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 8.79 DK - 9.21
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 16.06 DK - 16.52
On Sunday David Fizdale sat Marc Gasol during crunch time in a brutal loss to the Nets and on Monday the former was getting his resume together. The Grizzlies brought in J.B Bickerstaff as the interim head coach and he promptly shook up the starting lineup going with a Tyreke Evans/ Ben Mclemore backcourt combo with Dillon Brooks at the three (admittedly, the latter was already playing there). They lost to the Spurs but from a DFS perspective, there’s a lot to like about this move. Evans was already having an excellent season off the bench as one of the Grizzlies’ primary scoring threats and is now running the point guard with Mike Conley on the shelf and Mario Chalmers out. Even if Chalmers comes back I expect Evans to stick in the starting lineup and for a guy who qualifies as a SG/SF on DraftKings, this kind of usage rate and minutes floor is exactly what we’re looking for.
Mclemore took his season high in shots (10) and is running incredibly bad from three this season (19% compared to a 35% career average). If he sticks in the starting lineup (I think he will if Parsons remains out) then we could be buying very low if the shot comes around for a game. He is completely scoring dependent and ranks only as a low tier GPP play, but certain game scripts (and shooting performances) could boost his minutes with the first team.
Finally, Brooks has the highest minutes’ floor of these three and makes for something of a punt play on both sites. I prefer Evans and Mclemore to exceed value if they can keep the game close against the Spurs on the home-and-home with Evans likely coming in as something of a chalkier play even with the matchup.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 52.98 DK - 52.85
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 53.19 DK - 55.03
There are a lot of reasons to hate the idea of playing Anthony Davis tonight. His standard deviation is so much higher than anyone else in his tier of average fantasy scoring because the guy has the overwhelming propensity to leave games early. Usually, it’s because a strong breeze blows across the court, he staggers a little and is “questionable to return”. On Wednesday he actually survived a dive into the crowd (which never happens) only to get promptly ejected about two minutes later for arguing foul calls. A brutal reminder that nothing is ever safe with Davis. And yet here were again considering the guy. It’s a constant theme because the volatility around his court time often leads to massive price dips in the short term.
Davis is now at his lowest FanDuel salary of the season ($10,400) and facing a Utah team greatly hampered on the defensive end with Rudy Gobert out of the lineup. When he’s on the court, few players have Davis’s upside. Even with all of the “leaving the game early” crap, he’s still sporting the 6th highest fantasy points per game in the league and will draw either a Jonas Jerebko or Derrick Favors matchup (both of whom he should dominate). The pace is slower here, but the price is tough to ignore even with the nightly sweat of whether he’ll actually finish the game.
Meanwhile, much of the same case can be made for Cousins. He's at his lowest FanDuel salary since the first game of the year and a string of Pelicans' blowouts (both for and against) have seen the minutes drop precipitously in the short term. But of slightly greater concern is the drop in fantasy points per minute over the last seven games. In that span, he's averaged 1.3 FP/ min (FD scoring) down from 1.57 since the start of the season. And that drop lines up almost directly with Rajon Rondo returning to the starting lineup. It's probably a little too early to know if Rondo's presence will continue its negative effect on Boogie's fantasy output, but that is surely another contributor to his drop in price.
In this matchup, you get the best of all worlds. You have two teams dead set on running their starters the vast majority of minutes in a game that Vegas projects to be both high-scoring (211 O/U) and close (OKC -5.5). Among the players averaging more than 25 or more FanDuel points on the season, this game features five of the most consistent minutes/ game guys in the league (Westbrook, George, Towns, Wiggins, and Gibson). In fact, as mentioned above with Westbrook, there's some case to be made to fading him in favor of some of the other OKC guys like George who's put up some monster totals in OKC wins this season. If we see any short-term shift in Russ's play then, from a fantasy perspective, PG and Melo have a lot to gain.
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