Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov, right, of Russia, is congratulated by center Steven Stamkos after scoring against the Los Angeles Kings during the first period of an NHL hockey game, Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Michael Owen Baker)
Welcome back to a jam-packed Saturday and the last day of hockey before the Christmas break. Today starts off with two afternoon games with the Red Wings visiting the Bruins and the Jets visiting the Islanders but for the purpose of this article, I will be turning my attention to the 13-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET tonight. There are seven teams(ARI, MTL, WSH, MIN, PHI, FLA, BUF) playing on a back to back, two teams(CBJ, STL) playing a third game in four nights and four teams(PHI, ANH, BOS, CBJ) who are playing their fourth game of the week. Let's jump in and see if we can exploit any of these matchups as I will be breaking down my top plays at each position.
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Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 17.84 DK - 4.46
Fire up Vasilevskiy as your #1 goalie tonight in all formats. He leads the league with 22 wins on the season and sits third in GAA(2.20) and Save %(.931) and while there are no odds out at the time of writing this, the Bolts will likely be big favorites at home vs. the Wild playing on a back to back on the road. He not only comes with a nice floor with the leagues #1 offense and #4 defense in front of him, but also presents some upside as he faces over 30 shots per game.
Opponent - ANA
Proj Pts FD - 16.25 DK - 3.85
Murray is at home and the Penguins are very likely to be big favorites tonight but Murray very hard to call a safe play. He has been shaky all season with a .908 save % and has gone 2-2 since his return from injury but is in a great spot tonight and is my top pivot off Vasilevskiy in GPP's. He will face a Ducks team that is playing their fourth game of the week and ranks 29th overall in offense this season. The good news with Murray is that he has been much better on home ice with a 7-2-1 record and .929 save %.
Also Consider: Marc-Andre Fleury(VEG) as a GPP play vs. the Caps playing on a back to back on the road.
Opponent - ANA
Proj Pts FD - 13.63 DK - 4.07
The Ducks are a team I will be picking on heavily tonight for a couple reasons. They are one of the four teams I mentioned that could be fatigued as this will be their fourth game of the week and sixth straight road game. They have gone 2-3 on the road trip but struggled a bit defensively giving up 17 goals(3.4 per game) and now get a date with the reigning back to back Stanley Cup Champion Penguins who have been much better on home ice this season(11-5-1). Malkin continues to come cheaper than his superstar teammate Sidney Crosby and has been outperforming him lately with points in nine of his last 10 games with 40 shots on goal. He is an excellent core piece to a cash game lineup and can be stacked with his linemates for value or with Kessel and Crosby for a big upside GPP stack.
Stack with: Patric Hornqvist, Carl Hagelin, Phil Kessel(PP), Sidney Crosby(PP)
Opponent - VAN
Proj Pts FD - 13.86 DK - 4.01
Schenn hasn't provided the same shot volume and floor as Malkin but has shown the same, if not more, upside this season skating alongside superstar Vladimir Tarasenko. With seven goals and 10 points over his last 10 games, he now has 40 on the season and is well on his way to setting career-highs across the board. A lot of it has to do with the opportunity as he has gone from a sub 18 minutes per game player to an average of just under 19.5 minutes per game this season. Tonight he gets a plus matchup as well facing a Canucks team that has dropped seven of their last eight games while giving up 41 goals(5.1 per game). On Draftkings, I prefer Malkin in the same price range but on FanDuel, Schenn is a great play at a $1,100 discount.
Stack with: Vladimir Tarasenko, Dmitrij Jaskin, Alexander Steen(PP)
Opponent - EDM
Proj Pts FD - 10.72 DK - 3.01
Danault is a near fade for me on FanDuel as his price is getting a little too high for my liking but on DraftKings after hovering around the $5K mark, has dropped once again back into the mid $4K range. While the safety is not there as he has just 17 shots in his last 10 games(70 on the season), he has been providing some upside with points in seven of his last nine games(going into Friday night). At these prices, I will consdier him as a salary relief play in all formats and a nice value stack in GPP's with his linemates.
Stack with: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrew Shaw
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 19.02 DK - 5.54
On smaller slates, I am hesitant to pay all the way up for the Kucherov but tonight with 13 games on the main slate and tons of value I feel it is a near must to get some exposure. With points in 10 of his last 11 games, he has started to pull away with the league points lead as he now sits with 50 on the season. Digging even deeper, he has multi-point games in four straight and how has a whopping 18 on the season and not only has elite upside but also provides a nice floor averaging 3.7 shots on goal per game. Find a way to get him in your lineups tonight.
Stack with: Steven Stamkos, Vladislav Namestnikov
Opponent - ARI
Proj Pts FD - 11.39 DK - 3.42
Even on a big slate, the Avs top line is going to be popular again but will be a tough fade as they are not only playing at a high level but also get a prime matchup. They are the road favorites tonight as they travel to the desert to take on the Coyotes who have dropped 10 of their last 11 games(going into Friday night) and rank second to last in defense allowing 3.44 goals per game. Rantanen was drafted 10th overall in 2015 and is coming off a decent rookie season where he tallied 20 goals and 38 points and is well on his way to blowing those numbers out of the water as he has already tallied 10 goals and 30 points in under half the games. He comes in with a five-game point streak and has at least one point in eight of his last 10 games while averaging just under three shots per game. Fire him up in all formats, especially on DraftKings at a salary under $5K.
Stack with: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog
Opponent - BUF
Proj Pts FD - 10.53 DK - 3.1
Williams is widely known as "Mr. Game 7" across the hockey world for his heroics in the playoffs but if you are looking for a value play tonight, he is firmly in play here. He comes in with points in three of his last four games and has 24 on the season and tonight gets an elite matchup vs. the Sabres who are playing on a back to back and rank 28th overall on defense. The Canes have shuffled their even-strength lines around lately but he continues to skate on a powerplay line with Skinner and Staal and makes a nice salary relief play in all formats.
PP Stack with: Jeff Skinner, Jordan Staal, Derek Ryan
DEFENSEMEN
Opponent - VAN
Proj Pts FD - 11.64 DK - 3.22
With a ton of top plays at the forward position tonight, I will once again be turning to value on defense and it starts with Colton Parayko. Not only is he getting a ton of opportunity this season skating over 25 minutes per game lately, he has been hitting value more times than not with 21 blocks and 21 shots over his last 10 games. He has also flashed some offensive upside with points in three of his last four games and now has 20 on the season. The matchup is also a plus tonight facing a struggling Canucks team and he is providing almost identical value as his teammate Pietrangelo right now but at a big discount on both sites.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 9.62 DK - 2.99
Digging even deeper, we find a player who has been trending up and crushing value lately for the Vegas Golden Knights. In his third season as a pro, he has already set career highs in assists(14) and points(19) and over his last 10 games has tallied eight points with 31 shots on goal for an average of 3.6 DraftKings/13.0 FanDuel points per game. He is doing this while skating on the Knights third pairing but the key here is that he is getting just shy of three minutes per game on the powerplay and leads the defense core with seven powerplay points on the season. At these prices and on home ice, Miller is safe in all formats.
Also Consider: Victor Hedman(TB) if you are looking to pay up at the position or Noah Hanifin(CAR) for another punt play at home vs. a weak Sabres defense
Hockey is back and with it comes our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.
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View Comments
Thoughts on Cam Ward for cheap?
Decent play for sure at those prices and a -230 fav
NHL sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1w00errZWmu6cFNwpECDH5xR9HOvZ2um9K6-clieuD50/edit?usp=sharing