The crowd cheers after Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) scored during the first half of Game 2 in a second-round NBA playoff basketball series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Tuesday, May 5, 2015, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Tuesday in the NBA deals us a bunch of high-leverage matchups with the Thunder heading into Golden State, Boston taking on Toronto in an Eastern Conference slugfest, the Wizards and Sixers battling out and more. There are a ton of great games on tap and plenty for us to sink our DFS teeth into.
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Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.9 DK - 37.13
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.34 DK - 29.49
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 22.82 DK - 23.05
The Suns ruled out Devin Booker early Monday evening and named Tyler Ulis the starter. This kind of early injury reporting is a dream when it comes to projecting minutes and opportunity for a team. I suspect these three players will be highly-owned on the Tuesday slate of games all coming in at relatively advantageous price points and in a fantastic matchup.
Warren goes from a 26.5% full season usage rate all the way up to the 30.2% with Booker off the court. He’s a candidate to log mid-to-high 30’s minutes and is one of the few Suns we can “trust” on a night-to-night basis for DFS purposes. He’s incredibly scoring dependent, generating 66% of his fantasy scoring through putting the ball in the basket. But he should see plenty of opportunity in what will likely be an uptempo contest against the Lakers who run the fastest pace in the league.
Meanwhile, Jackson has landed in the starting lineup even with Booker around and sees the usage go from 25% to 28% with Booker out of the mix. His price is up to right around the $6K range which isn’t a complete slam dunk, but he should also log significant minutes with the Suns’ backcourt decimated by injuries.
And finally, there’s Ulis who will get the spot start. Isaiah Canaan’s been lost for the year with the horrific leg injury, Booker is on the shelf and the Suns don’t have much of anything in the way of primary ball handlers. Ulis isn’t all that great of shakes, but it’s hard to imagine him being punished in this matchup with the Lakers and he’s coming at near-minimum prices across the industry.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 46.99 DK - 49.16
In the premier matchup of the evening, the Warriors host the Thunder after losing the first meeting between the two teams back on November 22nd. The game actually turned into something of a blowout with the Thunder winning by 17 and the Warriors core starters seeing drastically reduced minutes. That’s an unlikely scenario to repeat tonight and Curry’s coming in as one of the better big-money payoffs on the slate. Curry’s putting together another fantastic season, averaging 27 points, five rebounds, and 6.5 assists. The Thunder are a top-five defensive team, so this isn’t a dream matchup
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 26.67 DK - 26.1
From a fantasy perspective, there’s a lot to like about Harrison. He’s a big (6’6) guard playing major minutes for the Grizzlies now that Tyreke Evans is out of the mix because of the looming trade deadline. Harrison has put together some terrific games in the short term, averaging 14 points, four rebounds and five assists in his last five games. Those numbers more than pay off these prices and he’s lining up with a fantastic matchup against a Hawk’s team ranked near the bottom of the league in defending opposing guards. It doesn’t feel great rostering Harrison in this price range, but point guard, in general, is weak on this slate.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 24.7 DK - 24.8
Hart has drawn the start point guard in each of the last two games, logging heavy minutes in both. Lonzo Ball is expected to miss yet another game and as much as we can trust the Lakers’ rotations (which isn’t saying much) Hart appears a safe-ish bet to stick with this kind of run. He’s double-doubled with points and rebounds in both of the last two games and tonight draws the very best matchup on the board against the Suns. Even with the moderate price increase, it still isn’t enough to outstrip his cash game value. As always, look out for Lakers’ news in terms of their starting lineup but I suspect Hart is a popular play on Tuesday.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 29.55
Oh man, this is one of those, “This hurts me worse than it hurts you” situations, I fully understand the pain it takes to roster a guy like Hardaway and I just need you to understand the level of hurt it takes me even to write him up. This s@#$ ain’t easy. But Hardaway is just about the perfect buy for DFS purposes. He’s sitting at low prices and coming off a three-game stretch of 5-33 (15%) shooting from the field. This is as bad as you’ll see an NBA player running and if history has taught us nothing else, it’s that NBA players regress to their historical means. Some guys like THJ live on the extremes of standard deviations, but that just means we can buy them at their lows. The minutes are still there and the shooting will come around. Roster him on the upside.
Strongly consider James Harden but there’s blowout risk with the Rockets favored by 10 over the Nets.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 25.89 DK - 26.37
He started for Aaron Gordon on Monday and will likely do the same on Tuesday against Cleveland. The Magic have already ruled their star (ish) power forward out for this game and after Monday's performance, it's likely Hezonja grabs another start. He went for 20 points, five rebounds and three assists in 32 minutes (a team high) and will benefit from facing a Cavaliers team ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. Cleveland doesn't have a lot of ways to go big, so Hezonja's minutes should be safe in this matchup and he has big upside if the three ball is falling.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.47 DK - 30.74
Remember that I already recommended T.J. Warren and Josh Jackson in the "Team Stack" category so with Carroll we are mostly picking up the scraps of the position. It isn't like I think he's a bad play or anything, but there's definitely more uncertainty around his production than those other guys. But if the Nets can keep the game close then Carroll has massive upside at these prices. He takes double-digit shots per game and averages more than four three-point attempts. When those are falling in a fast-paced game (with the threat of defensive stats out there) then he can pay these prices off easily.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27.51 DK - 27.21
Power forward on FanDuel is a rough shout tonight and you could be left kissing some frogs. Ibaka's price has dipped considerably in the short term but I think this is a safe zone to roster the guy considering the context. He's played fewer minutes in the last two games because of blowouts, but last time out against the Celtics he went 30 minutes. His line in that game was less than inspiring (8 points, 6 rebounds) but the run at $5K or less pricing is enough to roster him in cash games in a weak position.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.89 DK - 30.91
It's a little tricky getting exposure to the prime matchup of the night mostly because the pricing on core talent is correct. But on Melo we might be getting a little discount. His price is down just a bit in the short-term because of his struggles from the field. Over his last five games, he's shooting 35% from the field and 22% from three. It isn't for lack of trying, dude's been chucking like his typical Melo self (16 shots per game) but they just aren't landing. But he'll run into a solid shooting game and the pace of this one could compound on a good shooting performance.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 29.32 DK - 28.99
He *finally* got the start last game after coming back from injury and relinquishing his role to a bunch of scrubs and has-beens (can you tell I'm bitter about dude's opportunity?). And he proceeded to double-double his way to a fantastic game against the Knicks (12 points, 14 rebounds, crushing value). He'll get a similar opportunity with a much worse matchup on Tuesday against the Grizzlies. I thought Sunday's game was a value slam dunk for Dedmon. This one is a little closer because he has to front Gasol, deal with him on the offensive end and Memphis is just a bad DFS in general. And I still think Dedmon is the play at his price point.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.09 DK - 25.09
Alex Len was available to play last game and it didn't seem to matter all that much for the Suns. They ran Chandler 34 minutes against the Hornets and he snagged double-digit rebounds. I didn't include him in the team stack portion above because his fate isn't directly tied to Booker like those other guys. He's an independent decision. With Len around (and Chandler's general offensive deficiencies) he isn't a sure thing. But this is a fantastic matchup and the pace up in volume could see the rebounding numbers spike.
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NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
Im new how these MBA sheets work
Nba