Wizards v/s Thunder 03/14/11
Welcome to a wild Saturday in the NBA! With only a handful of teams still playing for anything, and many teams simply shutting it down at a moment's notice, writing this article before we get a ton of news might be something of a fool's errand. Still, there are plenty of things we DO know about this slate already, so let's get to it!
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Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 32.49 DK - 33.16
The Pelicans are arguably the most motivated team in the NBA right now, and while it's sort of up for debate as to whether a team that really wants to win should play Rondo, that seems to be their plan at the moment. I'm writing this before Friday's game has tipped off, but in close games Rondo should be expected to play something of a 32+ minute rotation as long as the guy he's covering isn't absolutely torching him. While I suppose that's a possibility with Quinn Cook and the Warriors, it has to be considered less likely than most given match-ups. If you think Rondo gets the minutes, you can't ask for a whole lot more from the match-up. Both Davis and Holiday should have their hands full with Green and Thompson, and while Rondo won't necessarily be killing teams by putting up points the extra space should mean something to him. I think he's a high floor play with big time tournament upside to go with it.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 21.07 DK - 21.47
Frank the Tank drew the start against the Bucks and managed to stay out there for 32 minutes in a game where the Knicks blew the Heat out by 30. He didn't do a whole lot scoring wise, but did have the ball in his hands a ton and dished out 9 assists. If he starts again against Milwaukee I suspect he'll see similar minutes, and Tim Hardaway's likely absence here makes this play all the sweeter. Just a classic price and opportunity mismatch, and I'll be happy to take advantage of it.
Also considered: Trey Burke. Knicks stack anyone? I also think Westbrook sees a ton of ownership here just because there are inevitably going to be a lot of ways to pay down, but there isn't much to say about him other than the fact that he is still playing ungodly amounts of minutes for some reason.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 21.9 DK - 22.78
Hardaway Jr. hit the locker room at the end of the third quarter on Friday, and Dotson wound up putting up a 30/11 in 36 minutes of play. I suspect he'd be the primary beneficiary if Hardaway were to miss this game, and if so, you can expect something like 100% ownership of him here. Not much else to say than that.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 34.45 DK - 36.15
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 36.2 DK - 36.38
The DFS Gods cursed us by not putting the LAC/DEN game on the main slate, so we're left with precious few teams with anything to play for here. Holiday makes the cut on that criterion alone. He's probably a little overpriced, and Rondo taking so much time on ball really cuts into his upside. And Thompson is a good defender! But who else can you count on for this slate to play high 30s minutes at this position? Basically no one. With all the punts flying around here I think you can spend up to get the floor here. As for Thompson, he's under-priced in what should be a terrific match-up with the Pelicans, but will the Warriors really try here? That makes me want to do my best to only play him in big tournaments.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.07 DK - 24.77
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 22.72 DK - 23.97
It's scary to think how many Net I might have exposure to as the season comes to a close, but it's the world we're living in. With DeMarre Carroll already ruled out, Harris and Crabbe should both have pretty secure roles in a great match-up with the hapless Bulls. Both played around 30 minutes and topped 30 fantasy points against Milwaukee, and on these prices, that's an incredible bargain. With so many other teams in unpredictable situations thanks to their playoff positioning becoming more secure, there's actually a lot of security in playing a team that hasn't had anything to play for for months. With no reason to tank, Brooklyn seems to be trying their best. I like both of these guys in any format.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.47 DK - 38.02
I can only project minutes based on what teams have been doing recently and what they're saying. The Thunder aren't saying anything about minutes right now, and what we're seeing is Paul George playing 36-39 minute rotations. Do I think this is a good idea? Probably not. But it's the reality. Houston, meanwhile, has been giving their starters some rest with the 1 seed locked up in the West. Like Holiday, George is probably a little expensive in this match-up, but I love the security of the minutes and expect to be able to afford him handily. If he gets more run against the likes of Gerald Green and PJ Tucker rather than Trevor Ariza and Mbah a Moute, all the better.
Also considered: Kevin Durant, if you think Golden State goes for the throat here. They are locked into their seeding, but it's not clear yet that they are going to just rest on their laurels. I don't want to play him here in cash though with so little to play for.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 63.35 DK - 63.1
Here's a 100% ownership guy in all likelihood. You have punts, you have one big money player with anything to play for, and you have a super fast match-up with Golden State. Blowout risk isn't even a factor here, since if the Pelicans lose they're just done. Make sure Davis is in your cash game lineups for sure, though you actually can fade him for big tournaments if you want to go against the grain.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.06 DK - 27.95
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 26.59 DK - 27.2
Power forward is really, really tough tonight. I like Melo and Mirotic because like some of the other plays we've mentioned already their roles seem relatively secure. I like Mirotic in particular because he can be on the court with Davis if the Warriors decide to play small ball with them. He was excellent in 27 minutes in his last game, putting up 35 fantasy points, and could particularly see an expanded role if the Pelicans are playing catch-up thanks to his ability to stretch the floor. As for Melo, his minutes jumped to 36 against Golden State, which leads me to believe the plan is to play him at least 31-33 minutes per game right now. If he does, these prices are very affordable if you're looking for a high floor.
The rest of 'em: Aldridge played a lot of minutes last game and was insane, but this is a really high price against a good defense. Lauri Markkanen could be an interesting play if Bobby Portis misses this one after getting ejected on Friday. Draymond Green is a phenomenal play if you think he gets the minutes.
Are you sensing a theme here? Power forward is just riddled with question marks right now, and it's very difficult for me to give you any clear direction. There are more of these guys, too. If Jabari Parker, or John Henson, or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson get minutes they could all be great plays as well. I'm just not sure anyone could honestly tell you any of those has a high enough floor to suggest playing in a double up.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 34.67 DK - 35.04
Speaking of things I never thought I'd write, "Kyle O'Quinn looks like an awesome play at $6,700." The man is simply possessed out there right now, coming off a startling 14/14/3/2/1 drubbing of Hassan Whiteside in just 21 minutes against the Heat. He would have gone out for more had the game been close, and this match-up against John Henson is a heck of a lot softer than that one. You're obviously paying for it here, but with Kanter likely to sit again I suspect the Knicks will at least try to enjoy watching the one effective player they have left. It's funny with O'Quinn, though - as high upside as a guy as he is I think you can still fade him for big tournaments because everyone will be dreaming on the upside here.
Also considered: A few directions you could go here, but all have their flaws. Steven Adams is getting minutes but seems to be the forgotten man in the OKC offense. Jarrett Allen has kind of been popping off lately but seems to rotate between playing 31 and 19 minutes per game. Felicio's minutes seem to be on the rise, and a potential Bobby Portis absence could mean more minutes as well. Pau Gasol re-emerged like a retired wrestler to curb stomp LA, but can we possibly trust it!?
Fun slate, I guess? The real key here, as always, is to be in the chat leading up to lock. I suspect we'll find some value here, but as of right now it's looking a little bit rough if safety is your thing.
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