Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic, left, of Serbia, looks to pass the ball as Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, in Denver. The Nuggets won 127-120. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Happy Sunday, everyone! After back to back 10+ game slates, we've got a much more modest three gamer on tap for today. An early look at this slate has it looking just a little bit weird. Each game features at least one good defense, and the tightest spread on the day is eight points. Not exactly a recipe for a safe slate. But you don't come hear to listen to me complain - let's get to the picks and find some diamonds in the rough.
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Toronto is favored by 9.5 in a game with a 219 total.
We start off with a real woofer. This game has the lowest total and the highest spread. It features two teams that play their guys consistent minutes, making it so that the players on each team are relatively fairly priced. Both teams play a top 10 defensive efficiency, and Orlando plays a bottom 4 pace. There really isn't much to say here. My ideal lineups tonight feature something like zero players from this game unless we get some significant injury news before lineup lock. If we don't you're basically only playing these guys to fill the back end of your cash games, and even then I'm really only hoping to play the Toronto side given how the Magic have been deploying their guys recently.
Denver is favored by 9 in a game with a 232 total.
The Clippers/Nuggets game has by far the highest total on the slate, features two teams that are currently in the playoffs, and even has a little fresh opportunity mixed in. In other words, it's the exact opposite of the Magic/Raptors game. Let's get into the top plays here.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 36.21 DK - 35.05
We'll start with Millsap, who has returned from injury with an absolute vengeance. He's had double digit rebounds in all three games, including 13 in his last two. Perhaps even more importantly, he shot 30 times over his last two contests as well. If Millsap is going to play a more prominent role in the offense going forward, he's quite simply under-priced, and grabbing him on a short slate at a terrible position is a good time to take the gamble.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.25 DK - 28.13
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.78 DK - 33.98
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 54.79 DK - 56.63
It looks for all the world like you're playing four Nuggets today, and these are the next three in line as far as our lineup optimizer is concerned. All three have been steady sources of 5x points per dollar when they play their full minutes, and while it's no sure thing in a game with a nine point spread it's hard to worry about game scripts on a day where all three games have basically the same spread. I think you can probably play Malik Beasley as well if he starts again, but our system seems him as the fifth best Nugget tonight.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.91 DK - 23.13
Shamet joined the starting lineup against Memphis, and played 32 minutes of pretty brutal basketball, coming nowhere near close to paying off these prices. Still, he's a very cheap play on what is essentially a two game slate, so I think it's tough to get away from him here. He still got the ball in the air 9 times, and that should be worth $4,300 here. Shooting guard is also pretty shallow today, so I think we can run him with a fairly clear conscience.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 32.52 DK - 31.19
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.6 DK - 34.75
The bench brothers! Quick and dirty math will tell you that our system isn't in love with these plays, but I wanted to bring them to your attention regardless. Yes, they have played a lot of minutes at times recently, but those minutes have been far from consistent. I think both of these guys are playable, but Lou-Will in particular could be a little expensive here.
San Antonio is favored 8 by in a game with a 221.5 total.
If we're fading the Toronto/Orlando game altogether, we're probably going to have to key in on this one even if it's not a game we'd normally target on a bigger slate. The Knicks are legitimately anybody's guess at the moment, but let's start there.
We saw big minutes upticks from Damyean Dotson, DeAndre Jordan, and Emmanuel Mudiay, but how much can we trust it? The Knicks have demonstrated all the sensibility of a craps player at 4 AM, and while it's all well and good for those who guess right from night to night, any value we try to seek from them is speculative at best. I'd say Jordan is my favorite play here just based on how center looks and his absurd rebounding upside against an undersized Spurs front court, but like I said, I could see it going either way.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 42.69 DK - 42.11
We've talked about how rough power forward looks tonight, which brings us to Aldridge. He was listed as probably for Friday's game with an illness, and ultimately turned in an underwhelming 6/8/3 line against a tough Raptors' front court. I'd guess he's feeling better for this one, though, and we're seeing a much better price on Aldridge than we'd seen earlier this season. Lamarcus is still playing 35 minutes a game in close contests, and he should be well rested enough to punish the Knicks lackluster interior defense.
After Aldridge, you'll probably see solid ownership on DeMar DeRozan as a solid high floor option. I'll tell you, though, I'm not sure that there isn't a better shooting guard option on the same team in Marco Belinelli. Belinelli has played 27, 28, and 32 minutes in his last three games, and he's essentially the minimum price here. It's obvious that the Spurs need his offense, too - he led them in shots against the Raptors. He's especially solid on FanDuel where you can drop your lowest score.
So, there you had it. It's a mostly terrible slate, but even on a small slate there is value to be had. And as always, there are some serious mistakes your opponents could make here as well. Best of luck to you if you decide to give it a go!
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DeAndre Jordan was listed as doubtful yesterday and still has that same designation today. You guys should be aware of these things.