DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/5/19

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Mother nature has been a nightmare for fantasy owners this week but we actually have a pretty weather-free slate here. The only games we need to keep an eye on are Pittsburgh, Philly, New York and Baltimore. All of those cities have rain in the forecast but none are expected to be too serious. With that in mind, let's get to some of our plays. 

Pitchers

Kenta Maeda FD - P 8600 DK - SP 8700
Opponent - SD (Nick Margevicius) Park - SD
FD - 34.55 DK - 18.74

While Maeda's 4.41 ERA and 1.50 WHIP are distressing signals, he's hard not to like in this game. The peripherals indicate that he has some positive regression headed his way, with Maeda posting a 3.17 FIP for his career while generating a 26 percent K rate. That alone makes him an attractive option below $9,000 on both sites but the matchup is simply superb. Not only does San Diego rank 26th in runs per game, they also rank 25th in xwOBA and 27th in xBA. That's why they're projected for only 3.5 runs here, with Maeda being a -140 favorite. 

Zach Eflin FD - P 7600 DK - SP 8800
Opponent - WSH (Anibal Sanchez) Park - PHI
FD - 31.84 DK - 16.54

Outside of one nightmarish start against the Marlins (of all teams), Eflin has been superb this season. In fact, Eflin hasn't allowed more than three runs in any other start while posting a 3.34 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The only thing lacking with Eflin is the strikeouts but a team like the Nationals could really help him in that category. Not only does Washington own the second worst K rate in the majors, they'll also be without Juan Soto and Trea Turner for at least the next week. That's why Vegas has Eflin projected as a -180 favorite in this matchup, with the Nationals projected to score fewer than four runs. 

Also considered: Rick Porcello is coming off his best start of the season and faces a White Sox team here who ranks 25th in K rate. 

Catcher/First Base

Joey Votto FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 3700
Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - CIN
FD - 12.01 DK - 9

Votto has been a huge disappointment the last two seasons but this price is simply getting too low. This is a guy who hovered in the $5,000's just two years ago and we have to believe he's fully healthy. Any player with a .217 career ISO and .425 OBP is worth a shot in this price range, even with his epic struggles. He's typically been better against righties too, with Votto posting a .948 OPS and .438 OBP against right-handed ptchers since the beginning of 2017. Jeff Samardzija pitching in a hitter's park like Great American Ballpark is a huge boost as well, as he's traditionally been worse against lefties and on the road. 

Rowdy Tellez FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - TEX (Drew Smyly) Park - TEX
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.02

It appeared to be a strange move when Toronto shipped off Kendrys Morales to Oakland but Tellez clearly gave them some motivation to make that move. What we really like about him is his recent form, with Tellez posting a .967 OPS across his last 11 games. That pairs beautifully with his .344 wOBA and .237 ISO, as he clearly has a great hitting profile. Getting to face Drew Smyly is quite the fortunate circumstance too, as his 7.80 ERA and 1.93 WHIP back up his nightmarish .427 xwOBA. 

If you're in need of a catcher, Yasmani Grandal pops up highly in our projections against gas can Jason Vargas.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD - 2B 3800 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - LAA (Matt Harvey) Park - LAA
FD - 13.44 DK - 10.41

A recent slump from Altuve has lowered his price to this tasty number but recent results indicate a bounceback is right around the corner. In fact, Altuve has doubled in three of his last four games, as that snapped an ugly BABIP fueled 3-for-33 stretch. The power has been impressive all season, with Altuve posting a .256 ISO this season. That becomes very intriguing against a gas can like Matt Harvey, who owns a 6.54 ERA and .388 xwOBA. 

Robinson Cano FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 4000
Opponent - MIL (Zach Davies) Park - MIL
FD - 9.87 DK - 7.56

Cano did miss a few games because of a minor hand injury but his numbers prior to that indicate that he's well on his way back to full health. Coming into Saturday, Cano was 15-for-37 at the plate over his previous 12 games, which equates to a 1.045 OPS. That's all you can ask for, especially considering that Cano gets the platoon advantage in this matchup. Over the last three years, Cano has posted an .865 OPS against right-handers and should have success in a hitter's haven like Miller Park. Don't get spooked with Zach Davies' low ERA - his 4.95 xFIP is much more indicative of his skill set, which includes a sub 6 K/9 and a bad walk rate as well. 

Jurickson Profar is super cheap on both sites and has too much potential to be in this price range. 

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 4700
Opponent - SEA (Erik Swanson) Park - CLE
FD - 14.12 DK - 10.77

Lindor's average has struggled to come around but his power is hard to argue with. In 12 games played this season, Lindor has four dingers and that alone makes him tough to fade in this price range. What's really fascinating about him here is his matchup though, with Erik Swanson posting a 6.62 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so far this season. While Lindor has traditionally been better from the right side, his .823 OPS from the left side this season indicates that he's more comfortable seeing a right-handed pitcher right now.

Corey Seager FD - SS 3000 DK - SS 3800
Opponent - SD (Nick Margevicius) Park - SD
FD - 10.01 DK - 7.63

Seager's numbers this season would not make anyone want to use him but we need to look at the bigger picture. This is simply one of the best pure hitters in the majors and he'll inevitably turn it around. Prior to last year's injury-riddled season, Seager had an ISO north of .200 and an OPS approaching .900 for his career. He's typically been better against right-handers too, posting an .885 OPS against righties for his career. Margevicius is a guy who's due for some negative regression too, as his 4.34 xFIP and 20.5 percent K rate doesn't match up with his 3.23 ERA.

Third Base

Alex Bregman FD - 3B 4100 DK - 3B 4800
Opponent - LAA (Matt Harvey) Park - LAA
FD - 13.74 DK - 10.35

Bregman got off to a slow start this season but it's crystal clear that he's out of it now. In fact, Bregman has four homers in his last four games, as he dingered twice on Saturday night. Getting arguably the hottest hitter in the league is tempting enough against anyone, let alone against a guy like Harvey, who owns a .384 xwOBA this season. This hot stretch is no surprise when you consider the fact that Bregman is one of the team leaders with an xwOBA just shy of .400.

Jose Ramirez FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B 4200
Opponent - SEA (Erik Swanson) Park - CLE
FD - 13.52 DK - 10.24

Ramirez is in the same boat as Lindor and these two make for a great two-man stack. Recommending a guy with a batting average below the Mendoza Line is always a tricky proposition but we're talking about a player who finished top-three in total fantasy points last season. That's the sort of upside that this guy presents, as he should have success against a pitcher who owns a .367 xwOBA. Not to mention, Ramirez has always been better hitting from the left side and he'll get that advantage here. 

Justin Turner enters this matchup in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak, and is an interesting alternative to the above guys for big tournaments.

Outfield

Ryan Braun FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - MIL
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.05

Lorenzo Cain FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 4600
Opponent - NYM (Jason Vargas) Park - MIL
FD - 12.88 DK - 10.03

One has to wonder if these guys will even play after their marathon 18-inning game on Saturday but they're tough to fade in this matchup. Let's start with Braun, as he collected six hits in that win on Saturday, including the walk-off winner. That's obviously ridiculous but what we really like about these two is the fact that they get the platoon advantage against Jason Vargas. The southpaw currently owns a 21:13 K:BB rate while posting a 5.75 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. His .394 xwOBA might even be worse and a full-on stack with all of the Brewers righties is in play in a ballpark like Miller Park. 

Randal Grichuk FD - OF 3100 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - TEX (Drew Smyly) Park - TEX
FD - 11.97 DK - 9.04

Grichuk is arguably the Blue Jays best hitter and he appears to be getting hot at the right time. Over his last six games, Grichuk is 11-for-28 at the plate, with three of those being extra-base hits. That sort of sparkling form is what every hitter wants to be doing headed into Texas, with Globe Life Park ranking as the second-best hitting park in the majors based on park factors. Getting the platoon advantage against Drew Smyly is simply the icing on the cake, as his .427 xwOBA is one of the worst marks in the league. 

Jesse Winker FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 4700
Opponent - SF (Jeff Samardzija) Park - CIN
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.18

Winker's average has been lacking, to say the least but he's actually developed into a significant power threat. Not only does he lead the Reds with eight homers so far this season, Winker is posting a .272 ISO. That's simply elite power and it should be no surprise considering he gets to hit in Great American Smallpark. Facing Jeff Samardzija makes him a good bet to homer here too, with the right-hander posting an xFIP north of 6.00 over the last two seasons.

Nomar Mazara is one of our highest projected outfielders as it's always beneficial to hit in Globe Life Park with the platoon advantage in your favor. 

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