Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
Chris Durell will be bringing you his weekly race breakdown, top trends, and pre-qualifying targets to help you cash on DraftKings and FanDuel. You can also grab a copy of his free DFS NASCAR Cheatsheet that includes a ton of stats and a customizable model.
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Kansas Speedway - Kansas City, KS
Track - 1.5 Mile D-Shaped Oval Intermediate
15° of Banking
This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway for the Digital Ally 400 this Saturday night. After racing on four different track types(Dover, Talladega, Richmond, Bristol) the Cup series goes back to another Mile and Half track and one which has hosted two races per season since 2011.
Not only will I be looking at track history and track type history this week, but I will also be looking back at the other races this season using the new 2019 rules package. For the most part, each week and track have been different setups but this will be the third race of the season with the full package(550 hp tapered spacer, rear spoiler, air ducts) so looking back at the Las Vegas and Texas races can definitely give us some info going into this weekends race.
Looking at the past six races here(from my sheet), there has been just one driver in each race to lead 100 or more laps and no more than four to lead 20 or more laps. I believe this will change this time around as we two drivers lead 86 and 88 laps in Vegas with five drivers leading 15 or more laps. In Texas, we saw two seven drivers lead 15+, six drivers lead 20+, and two drivers lead 50+ with no driver once again leading 100 laps.
With all that said, let's take a look at some track history, track type history, current form and then dig into the picks.
No driver has been better at Kansas over the last two years than Martin Truex Jr. who is the only driver to finish Top 5 in all four races and also led all drivers with 208 laps led. Truex also won both races here in 2017 and for his career has the fifth-best average finish(14.0) and second-most laps led(726).
Kevin Harvick finished Top 2 in all four stages here last year and while he finished 12th in the playoff race, he won the Spring race. He has also finished Top 10 in eight of his last 11 race here(worst finish-16th) with three wins and seven Top 5's. He has also led 20+ laps nine times, 50+ laps seven times and 668 total.
Kyle Busch has just one career win here(Spring 2016) but has been very consistent with Top 10's in eight straight with six Top 5 finishes. His teammate Erik Jones stands out as a nice value here this week as he finished Top 5 in both races here last year.
Chip Ganassi teammates Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch have both flashed upside here but Larson is the one I am targeting at a discount on both sites. Like Jones, he finished Top 5 here in both races last year and led 101 laps in the Spring race. He loves the top line and makes it work very well here at Kansas.
For the Hendrick Motorsports bunch, Jimmie Johnson leads the way with three career wins tying him with Harvick but he hasn't tallied a Top 10 since 2016 and has just three in his last eight races here. Chase Elliott won the playoff race here last year and has Top 5's in two of his last three. Alex Bowman has also been consistent with a 9th and 18th last year and has Top 10's in two of his last three races here.
Let's start off by looking at the drivers who have been consistent on the mile and half tracks since the start of the 2017 season. Leading the way is Martin Truex Jr. who has eight wins in that time but just one since his championship-winning race at Homestead in 2017. He has still been very consistent in that time with 12 Top 10's in his last 15 races on intermediates with 10 Top 5's.
Kevin Harvick has Top 10's in five straight intermediate track races and five wins, 17 Top 5's, and 23 Top 10's in his last 27 races on the mile and half tracks. He also leads all drivers in 2019 averaging 75.4 DK/75.3 FD points per race through three races on intermediate tracks(Vegas, Texas, Atlanta).
Kyle Busch doesn't have as many wins(3) as Truex and Harvick but has Top 10 finishes in 15 of his last 16 races on intermediate tracks.
Brad Keselowski has been up and down on intermediates but has flashed a ton of upside with three wins in the last eight mile and a half track races and four since the start of the 2017 season. His teammate, Joey Logano, has two wins in the last four intermediate races including his championship winning Homestead win. He has also tallied a Top 10 in 14 of his last 17 on the track type.
From a value perspective, I am looking Chris Buescher this week as he has finished Top 25 or better in 10 straight and 17 of his last 19 races on the intermediate tracks picking up place differential in 13 of them.
While he hasn't been the most consistent driver this season, it is hard to not start this section without Martin Truex Jr. and the #19 team. Truex has won two of the last three races including last week at Dover when he started from the back. His teammate, Kyle Busch, continues to lead the standings as he tallied his 11th straight Top 10 to start the season tying a NASCAR record. He also leads all drivers with three wins and is second to Brad Keselowski with 604 laps led.
Looking at the last six races, Chase Elliott is right there with Busch for consistency(7.8 average finish) having put together back to back Top 5's including a win at Talladega.
Clint Bowyer is the only other driver not named Kyle Busch with five or more Top 10's in the last six races including a runner-up at Texas which used the same rules package.
After Busch and Bowyer, three other drivers(Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano) have four Top 10's in the last six races. Hamlin leads the way, however, as he has a win and four Top 5's.
Kevin Harvick
He is #1 in my model this week as he returns to Kansas with a Top 10 in eight of his last 11 races here including three wins and seven podium finishes. Stewart-Haas was very strong in qualifying and will start first through fourth with Harvick on the pole. He also posted the fastest 10-lap average in both practices. As the fourth most expensive driver on DraftKings, Harvick is the driver to build around this week.
Kyle Busch
He is the most expensive driver on both sites but cannot be faded as he has been dominant all season. He has three wins and Top 10's in all 11 races(13 straight going back to Phoenix in the playoffs) and is dominating with an average of 80.7 DK/79.4 FD points per race(20 more DK and 10 more FD per race than any other driver). He has also been terrific here at Kansas with a Top 10 in eight straight including a win(2016) and six Top 5's.
Clint Bowyer
Bowyer is an excellent mid-tier value this week starting on the second row right behind teammate Kevin Harvick. Starting third makes him more of a GPP play on DraftKings, especially considering his one Top 10 in his last 11 Kansas races. He showed excellent speed in final practice ranking 3rd in both one-lap and 10-lap averages and with this race package finished 2nd at Texas and 14th at Las Vegas.
Chris Buescher
From a PTS/$ perspective, Buescher is my top value play this week as he leads all drivers in the sub $8K range(DK) with an average of 38.7 DK/61 FD points per race on intermediate tracks this season. Taking it further, he has Top 25 finishes five of his six races here at Kansas with three Top 20's and a Top 10. He also has a 19.7 average finish on intermediate tracks since the start of the 2017 season. Starting 27th this week, he is in play in all formats especially on FanDuel at just $6,700.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is an active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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