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Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 40.92 DK - 41.1
CP3's price is down a little bit after a tough three game stretch that saw him lose minutes in a couple games and then run into the buzz-saw defense of the Clippers, but this match-up should be a nice opportunity for him to get back on track. The grit and grind Grizzlies of old are long gone, and the new look Grizz pair the league's 6th fastest pace with the league's 5th worst defensive efficiency. Vegas has the Thunder has 6.5 point favorites here, and the if Paul plays his full run of minutes he's a heavy favorite to pay his price and then some.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.58 DK - 31.78
Murray has rounded into a fantasy points per minute beast thanks to his incredible contributions on the defensive end, and his floor is among the highest at this price point thanks to his ability to contribute across the board. With 34.7 fantasy points per game over his last 7 games, he's just flat out under-priced right now, and I'll happily grab him in a league average match-up with the Mavs in any format.
Also considered: Jalen Brunson, if Doncic is out once again. Given that there is some chance for Luka to come back here I didn't want to write him up entirely though.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.13 DK - 41.54
I'm not shy about getting Wiggy with it with Towns out, and this price on FanDuel is just a mystery to me. Wiggins has averaged just under 40 FanDuel points a game on the season, and that includes games where he was splitting Alpha duties with Towns. The Kings are in disarray right now, and the 10-19 Timberwolves are just 4 point dogs here. I have a hard time believing Wiggins doesn't get his in spite of Sacramento's depressingly slow pace.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 23.99 DK - 24.42
Temple is playing absurd minutes right now, and this FanDuel price is a little bit offensive. He's playing 34 minute rotations with 39 minute upside in the right match-up, and he has really been clicking with Dinwiddie recently. He's coming off a game where he almost touched 10x points per dollar on this FD price, and his catch and shoot game should match up nicely with the Knicks' lackadaisical defense that has sported the third worst defensive efficiency on the season.
Also considered: Donovan Mitchell against Portland.
Carmelo Anthony FD - $6200 DK - $5800
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 32.67 DK - 32.33
It's an age old DFS conundrum: which do we value more, a cheap price, or a bad match-up? Melo surprised many by storming back from injury with 37.8 fantasy points on 37 minutes, and if he's going to really join CJ and Dame in the high 30s minutes rotation club this price will crest up to $7k in short order. Utah, meanwhile, isn't quite as bad a match-up as it used to be, as they're playing a league average pace with the 9th best defensive efficiency. I just think the price is too cheap to be concerned by them.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 27.84 DK - 29.4
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 23.43 DK - 23.93
The cheap small forward gang. Both of these guys have great match-ups going up against one another, and which you prefer likely depends on which site you're on. Harris is far too cheap on FanDuel, and possibly "just right" on DraftKings. Knox, meanwhile, has put together some huge 8x+ points per dollar performances recently, and had a few stinkers as well. I should probably reframe my earlier argument - let's lock in Harris for cash games and speculate on Knox for big tournaments assuming he's starting again.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.96 DK - 41.03
Randle has settled in as the number one option in New York, and he's coming off of a game where he absolutely eviscerated the Washington front court. The Nets have been notoriously bad against opposing bigs over the last couple of years, and if Randle has really gone from being the 14 shot a game guy he was earlier this season to being a 17-20 shot a game guy (the way he has recently) then he's probably 10% too cheap on both sites.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.72 DK - 31.59
Someone at the FanDuel offices had too much eggnog with some of these prices. We haven't seen disparities like these between FD and DK prices in quite some time, and this just looks like a dramatic overreaction to Blake's recently downturn. Remember, Blake wasn't hurt, he had the flu, and in spite of that he still came close to paying his price in a very tough match-up with the 76ers on Monday. With 3 more days to rest I think he returns at full strength here. And we haven't even gotten to the match-up! The Wiz have been flirting with being the holy grail team all season, frequently pairing the league's fastest pace with the league's worst defense. It's going to be hard to talk me off running him out there on FD.
Also considered: Jarrett Allen, who put a bruising on the Knicks in their last match-up.
Center at a glance
If Karl-Anthony Towns misses again, Gorgui Dieng is just hanging out as a far too cheap option on both sites. I'll probably play him and not think too hard about it.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 50.49 DK - 50.78
If Towns returns, I'll happily jam Andre Drummond into this truly hapless Wizards front court. I've been amazed by their inability to defend the five this year, allowing just .4 fewer fantasy points to opposing centers than the aforementioned Nets. Drummond flat out embarrassed the Wiz with 24 rebounds in their previous meeting this year, looking like the one kid on the freshman team that is just 7 inches taller than everyone else. Hell, I imagine a lot of people will just take him as their primary pay-off even if Towns misses and Dieng is available for cheap.
Ian Mahinmi is a great big tournament target, which is to say he can be incredible or absolutely awful or pop off for 8x points per dollar.
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