Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, center, attempts a shot as Portland Trail Blazers' Anfernee Simons (1) and Damian Lillard, right, defend during an NBA basketball game in Dallas, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2019. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 58.31 DK - 62.69
I've been on the wrong side of Luka chalk before, my friends, and let me tell you: it's not a place you want to be. The most exciting 20 year old ever continued his sophmore tour de force against the Thunder, compiling a 35/10/7 line over the course of 40 minutes. Last week he dropped 70 fantasy points against the Warriors in 30 minutes. Tonight he'll go up against the Nets, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. We're not even worried about blowout risk here, as if the Mavs manage to blow other teams out it's almost always because of Luka himself. The $10,800 salary is just a joke, and Luka is very likely the big money payoff you're looking for here.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 34.05 DK - 34.37
With Teague currently listed as doubtful, we could be looking at another night of incredible chalk for Shabazz Napier. He was a 90%+ start in cash games last night, and had paid these prices by halftime. If Teague returns for some reason you likely won't want to play him, but given that this match-up is like 10x better than the Bucks spot last night he could be nearly unanimously owned in this one.
Also considered: Kyle Lowry, who is looking rock solid on a $7,800 price tag on FanDuel.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 33.54 DK - 35.66
On a larger slate I'd like to be getting away with something, but the outrageous floor on Hield seems like it's worth talking about. His rotation and usage are among the most secure in the entire game, as evidenced by his last game against the Clippers, where the Kings lost by 18 but Hield still played 36 minutes and got 17 shots in the air. He paid value against one of the toughest defenses in the league, and now he'll get to take his shot at Memphis, who has allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. I love Hield if this slate doesn't turn into a stars and scrubs extravaganza.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 30.36 DK - 31.29
Like Hield, Lee brings an incredible floor to the table on account of his current opportunity. His normal rotation is around 36 minutes, but he also played 33 minutes in a 20 point loss to the Mavericks. He's topped 31 fantasy points in each of his last four games. The Dubs are pretty hapless at the moment, but the beleaguered Timberwolves are just 3.5 point favorites on account of likely missing Wiggins and Towns once again. The Wolves are light on defensive and offensive options right now, and I think Lee brings a lot to your cash game lineup.
Garrett Temple is too cheap right now, and is a cash game option even though he's been sort of up and down performance wise.
Lou Williams is not listed on the injury report, and looks like a terrific option against the Pistons. Blowout risk would be the only thing standing in the way of playing him at $5,200 on FanDuel.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 33.32 DK - 33.56
With D'Angelo Russell already ruled out of this game, Burks is something like a mandatory cash game play for me. He played 33 minutes in regulation against the Spurs and led all Warriors with 20 shots. It's a simple price and opportunity mismatch, and in a great spot against the Timberwolves just play Burks in cash and don't overthink it.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 44.45 DK - 45.8
With a lot of value likely coming together on this slate, I think George is looking mighty fine in the upper mid-range. George has gotten far too cheap on FanDuel thanks in large part to a stretch of bad shooting, and if you've followed us for any period of time you'll know that this is exactly the type of situation we like to capitalize on. Players at George's age don't simply get worse at shooting - they either get injured, or get unlucky. With no murmurs of injury, I'm going with unlucky. He's a career 43.2% shooter that's gone 23 for his last 80 from the field, and he still paid value in two of those games. There's some blowout risk against a Pistons team that's still missing Blake, but I'm still a believer here.
Also considered: There is a ton of mid-range and cheap value at this position today, but I'm pretty into Bojan Bogdanovic.
Please run Jarrett Culver if Wiggins is out again. His minutes and usage are through the roof with Wiggins shelved, and he's still far too cheap.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.05 DK - 28.35
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.74 DK - 28.91
You can't play every single guy from this game, but like, imagine if you could. Covington and Chriss are both far too cheap, and both get an excellent match-up going the other way. Chriss in particular looks absurd, as he has put up 30+ fantasy points in each of his last two games, and one of those was one where he lost most of his minutes to a blowout and was on the floor for just 16 minutes. With Willie Cauley-Stein not traveling with the team here, I just don't see how you can get away with not having Chriss here.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 39.82 DK - 43.53
We've played Love more than most this season, so I mostly just wanted to brag about that for a little while. The key to playing Love profitably is not just running him out there regardless of the match-up, but instead capitalizing when he has two things going in his favor. First is a soft match-up, and the Hornets are most definitely that. They've allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing fours this season. The next is a tight spread. Since the Cavs are bad, Love and the other starters are somewhat prone to miss their minutes. Given that they are just 2 point dogs here, Love gets the green light from me in all formats.
With Blake and Markieff Morris ruled out Christian Wood could be an interesting punt option.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 37.57 DK - 37.38
I hate to bore you with plays all from the same game, but it really is worth highlighting this one. Value is value, am I right? Dieng has been excellent with Towns out, and while Towns has been ramping up his work in practice it looks like he'll miss this one as well. The Dubs have been terrible against opposing centers this season, and given that WCS will miss this one I can't imagine that will help matters much. While Dieng could draw Green at the 5, this will just open things up for more skill offensive players elsewhere. This one is shaping up to be an easy 5x-6x points per dollar.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 52.98 DK - 52.59
While I don't think this is necessarily the cash game pay-off option you're looking for, I do think there is a great case to be made for Drummond more generally today. The Pistons big man has drawn a lot of DFS attention since Blake went down, and with good reason - he's a veritable double double machine with 20/20 upside. Why run him against a stout Clippers defense, though? Well, while the Clippers defense is very long and oppressive against wings, they are by far at their worst against opposing centers. They have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to opposing centers this year, which is the only position where they are below average. While Drummond is a big candidate to lose minutes if the Pistons trail, he'll be the main reason they stay competitive if the game goes that way.
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