Cleveland Cavaliers' Kevin Love, left, is double-teamed by Minnesota Timberwolves' Anthony Tolliver and Jeff Teague, right, in the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Oct. 19, 2018, in Minneapolis. Love led the Cavaliers with 25 points. The Timberwolves won, 131-123. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
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Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.19 DK - 26.68
Have you seen these rotations out of Simons recently? Just outrageous minutes, including 41 in regulation last game. With CJ McCollum limited in practice on Wednesday, it looks for all the world like he'll miss another couple of games. He needs every single one of those minutes to pay these prices as long as he's playing alongside Melo and Lillard, but the floor just seems super high, and when you get a price and opportunity mismatch like this on a three game slate you should probably pursue it.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 48.4 DK - 49.19
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 48.55 DK - 50.64
A key decision on FanDuel tonight might come down to picking between high priced point guards. On DraftKings Lillard is startlingly more expensive, and not really in consideration for me. On FanDuel it's a bit closer. Lillard has the better match-up and is getting an obvious usage bump with CJ sidelined, but he's more expensive. Kyrie's got a tough match-up with the Lakers, but they are worse against point guards than pretty much any other position. This game has the potential to get out of hand, but given Davis' uncertain status of this writing it could be closer than it would be with both superstars healthy.
Right now, I'm leaning toward Lillard on FanDuel and Irving on DraftKings.
If you have the money, Luka Doncic is still lurking as well. He's a great value and was good against Portland last week, but I'm just not sure this is where we're spending up tonight just yet.
Also considered: Cleveland's young back-court duo are great plays against a bad Washington team, and I wouldn't fault anyone for running them in any format. Honestly point guard is so deep that you might want to prioritize plays at other positions and see how much you have left over at the end.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.42 DK - 24.83
If McCollum misses again, it sure looks like we'll get 35+ minute rotations from Trent off the bench. While Trent is far from a sure thing for the 49.5 fantasy points he scored against the Thunder, this type of opportunity is just far too much to ignore on a three game slate. I'm happy to play Trent in any format you can imagine tonight.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.84 DK - 41.33
The Nets are getting healthier, which is generally bad for Dinwiddie, who has profited greatly from the injuries to Kyrie and Levert. With Kyrie currently listed as probable, there is a good chance we'll see Dinwiddie in the reduced role we saw him in during Kyrie's short return. But is that really that bad a deal at this FanDuel price? He's still starting and playing 36 minute rotations in close games, and that gives him enough of a floor that I think we're sort of priced in here.
Shooting guard is just absurdly shallow today, which means we might have to make a few concessions. Washington's minutes are crazy, Cleveland doesn't have anyone that qualifies at SG on FD, and Dallas and the Lakers spread their SG minutes all over.
The one possible exception is Bradley Beal, and if you believe that his minutes will return at least then he makes a fine alternative to Dinwiddie.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 56.48 DK - 59.51
There are a number of factors pointing to a big LeBron game here, not the least of which being Davis' questionable status on the second half of a back to back after returning from injury. With Davis off the floor LeBron's numbers just go bananas, with his usage sitting at 36.9% and his assists rate at 45.5%. Yes, he assists almost half of his teammate's baskets when he's on the floor but Davis isn't. The nets are tougher defensively than they have been in the past with the addition of some solid wing defenders, but LeBron is one of those singular physical talents that makes traditional defense vs. position metrics less useful. With all the cheap value out there, it's hard to imagine fading LeBron.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.68 DK - 31.11
With a crazy Cleveland-Washington game and a potentially rough game script in the Brooklyn-Lakers game, our system is really leaning into this banged up Portland team. Melo's averaged better than 14 shots on a game with McCollum out over these last three games, and that's just a lot of usage for a $6,200 player. The minutes seem absolutely secure, and I'm banking on huge minutes in a game with a one point spread.
Also considered: Cedi Osman.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 38.11 DK - 41.82
The big question mark with the Cavs guys is always the blowout risk. As one of the worst teams in the league, it's a daily question for them. The good news? They're somehow playing a team that's just as bad as they are today! Love is priced like a guy whose minutes are coming and going, but in close games he will play a 34-36 minute rotation. Getting those minutes against a Wizards team that's allowed the sixth most fantasy points per minute against opposing power forwards just looks like a great deal, and a bad position you're just going to play Love in cash games tonight.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 25.66
After Love, things get quite a bit trickier. With Powell already ruled out of this game, Kleber's already solid rotation looks even more secure. And yes, he hasn't really been doing a ton with those minutes, but I actually like him in this match-up against a defensively indifferent Carmelo Anthony. Kleber won't create his own shot, but he can drain open looks, and those should be available here.
Also considered: Jarrett Allen if you think the game stays close enough for him to get his full run.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 37.33 DK - 38.7
I see no alternative for Thompson on FanDuel, especially at this laugh-out-loud sub $6,000 price tag against the hapless Wizards. The Wizards have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and like Love, Thompson's price is depressed by Cleveland's inability to stay in games. Just look at any game where Thompson has played 33+ minutes and you'll see that grabbing him in nearly the best match-up is a no-brainer, especially when you consider the other options on this slate.
Also considered: Hassan Whiteside, but at least at this point he's the odd man out given that you can't play 5 Trail Blazers all together.
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