FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Tuesday, 1/28/20

In case you missed the news, the Lakers-Clippers game scheduled for Tuesday has been canceled. It remains an incredibly sad time in the NBA with the passing of Kobe Bryant with the effects of this tragedy likely felt for the rest of the season and beyond.

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Point Guard

Kyle Lowry FD - $7300 DK - $7200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 40.06 DK - 41.49
The Raptors walk into the best matchup on the slate against the Hawks who play the third-worst defense in the league and run the third-fastest pace. That’s a team built to stack against in DFS and we could be looking at just that scenario. Even though the Raptors are getting healthier there’s still plenty to like about the team from a fantasy perspective. The main piece is the concentration of minutes around the starters. Lowry’s played 35 or more minutes in each of the last three games and is averaging 19 points, four rebounds and four assists in that stretch. Those numbers won’t blow you away, but consider he’s also running bad from three (4-20) while also contributing some defensive stats and I think you have a higher floor play in a perfect matchup.

Kemba Walker FD - $8000 DK - $7800
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 41.73 DK - 43.18
Jayson Tatum has already been ruled out for Tuesday and that means we could be looking at another volume shooting game from Walker. Kemba has put up 24 and 23 shots respectively over the last two games with the Celtics dealing with some injury issues. He’s piled on 35 and 37 points with six steals combined. Without Tatum, it helps to play Walker more minutes to keep Boston with consistent scoring threats. Miami is a toucher matchup so this isn’t quite the layup we had in cash with Kemba over the last two games, but he’s still a high floor play because of the usage and ranks as a good DraftKings play.

Strongly consider Elfrid Payton (FD $6300 DK $6000) against the Hornets.

Shooting Guard

Fred Vanvleet FD - $7500 DK - $8200
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 41.78 DK - 41.94
He’s on the second Raptor on the list and believe me, he won’t be the last. Much like Lowry, dude plays about the most minutes in the league when he’s healthy and has run 39+ in each of the last three averaging 17 points and eight assists in that timeline. He’s coming a bit expensive but you are getting such a great minutes floor and matchup that I think stacking Lowry/FVV and Siakam (who we’ll get to in a minute) gives you about as safe a cash stack as you’ll find. VanVleet is still getting up more than 15 shots per game in the short-term and more than seven threes in that stretch. He’ll also pile on steals in certain games and the Hawks in a pace-up game are perfect for those.

Devonte' Graham FD - $6400 DK - $7400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 36.5 DK - 38.44 The Hornets have only played one game in the last week after their trip over the pond to France where they played the Bucks. Graham’s price has dropped some in the short-term with the scoring dipping some over his last three games. He’s a streaky shooter and not all that efficient from the field but the Hornets have also run into some slower/ defensively sound teams in the Bucks, Magic and Nuggets in their last three. That isn’t the case here against the Knicks who rank 26th in defensive efficiency. I think we are getting Graham at a value against a team that has particular issue guarding around the perimeter.

Strongly consider Jrue Holiday (FD $7300 DK $7900) against the Cavaliers but I’m a little worried about a blowout there.

Small Forward

Pascal Siakam FD - $7600 DK - $8000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 42.56 DK - 43.52
Any concerns about a minutes restriction after coming back from injury were laid to rest last game when he ran 37 against the Spurs on Sunday. He put up his best game in more than a month with 35 points, eight rebounds and three assists. And that was even with only recording a single steal. It was encouraging to see the shots really go into the stratosphere to, putting up 23 from the field including 11 threes. The price hasn’t fully adjusted for the projected uptick in minutes and the matchup. Siakam is likely a very chalky play on this slate.

Marcus Morris FD - $5800 DK - $6200
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 34.26 DK - 35.57
It seems we are consistently getting Morris at a “value” because of how he profiles from a fantasy perspective. Though he’s a SF/PF type he derives most of his fantasy scoring through putting the ball through the hoop. In fact 64% of his fantasy scoring comes from actual scoring on the court, a percentage that profiles much more like a true shooting guard than a big wing type. It’s something of an outlier at the position. So it helps that over the last month he’s been getting up more than 16 shots per game and playing about 35 minutes per. Charlotte is a bottom-feeding defense without much size on the wings meaning this is a good spot for Morris to pile on points.

If Ricky Rubio sat out I would like a slight bump on Kelly Oubre Jr. (FD $6800 DK $6900).

Power Forward

Zion Williamson FD - $6300 DK - $7200
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 39.69 DK - 41.09
Well, here we are. Zion made his debut last Wednesday in a statement run in the fourth quarter that profiled the prince that was promised for the Pelicans. He looked every bit the superstar. And the last two games have basically followed suit. The only concern with Zion, from a fantasy perspective, have been the minutes but against the Celtics on Sunday he ran 27, his most to date. In just 22 minutes per game in his first three, Williamson is averaging 19 points, eight rebounds, two assists and block+steal combined. If 27+ minutes are going to be the norm going forward then he’s coming too cheap on FanDuel specifically.

Daniel Theis FD - $5200 DK - $5700
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 30.37 DK - 28.92
With Enes Kanter and Jayson Tatum out over the last couple of games, the Celtics have need significantly more minutes from Theis at the five. And he’s delivered. He’s played 31 and 32 minutes in the last two with an average of 16 points, seven rebounds and some assists, blocks and steals thrown in as well. At a weaker power forward position on FanDuel he does make for a higher floor play against the Heat. The Celtics are just desperate for minutes out of a big and Theis is one of the few guys they can trust from that perspective. He’s getting a little pricey on DraftKings though.

Center

Deandre Ayton FD - $7700 DK - $8200
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 42.81 DK - 43.91
We said last time out that Ayton was coming too cheap for the minutes he stood to play in close games and that he’d been coming off a rough stretch from an opposing defense perspective. Then against the Grizzlies, he went out and played 40 minutes putting up a 17 point, 15 rebound, three steal, two block game that was among the better performances on the night. I’m fine going right back to him on Tuesday on both sites. The Mavericks brought in Wille Cauley-Stein to get some big minutes back after the loss of Dwight Powell but are still a team allowing slightly worse than league average production to opposing centers this season. And like I said, the real thing you’re buying with Ayton (with Baynes out) are center minutes almost unlike any other player in the league.

Marc Gasol FD - $5000 DK - $4900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 29.56 DK - 29.59
Let’s just finish off the Raptors here with a play at every position except for power forward (on FanDuel at least). Toronto has no issues running Gasol minutes in closer games but he will lose out in a blowout. That latter part is my only concern with the big guy today though it’s built somewhat into his price, especially on DraftKings. Atlanta is allowing 4% more scoring than league average to opposing centers and Gasol contributes enough across the stat line to not kill you at these prices. And there’s some chance he puts the scoring and rebounding together in one game for real upside. The two haven’t come in tandem over the last month or so, but he’s rebounded real well over the last two games with 21 boards total.

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