DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/9/21

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Pitchers

Jacob deGrom FD - P 12500 DK - SP 11700
Opponent - ARI (Riley Smith) Park - NYM
FD - 40.37 DK - 23.27

The stats are getting a little dumb here. He has 59 strikeouts in his first 35 innings, good for an absurd 48% K% and has a nearly 15:1 K:BB ratio. The ERA is sitting at 0.51 which is only slightly better than the 1.37 xFIP. He’s just the best pitcher in baseball right now which is really saying something considering the number of quality arms that are out there. He’s coming in as a -315 home favorite against the garbage-y Diamondbacks and will likely be chalk on this slate. There’s absolutely no reason at all to fade him here and deGrom deserves to be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate. It shouldn’t be close.

Kenta Maeda FD - P 7400 DK - SP 8300
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 36.1 DK - 19.09

Kenta Maeda is about 1.25 runs better on his xFIP than the 5.00 ERA meaning we are getting him at something of a discount thanks to early-season run bad. His BABIP allowed is 70 points higher than his career average and he’s running unlucky on the LOB% as well. The strikeouts aren’t where they’ve been the last couple of seasons, but the matchup against the Tigers is a good one. I like him here though think he’s a significant step below deGrom obviously.

Lucas Giolito (FD $9600 DK $9500) is also a good value and is so much cheaper than deGrom on FanDuel that some might go this direction.

Catcher/First Base

José Abreu FD - 1B 3800 DK - 1B 4700
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.64

Abreu has tuned up lefty pitching for his career with a 149 wRC+ and .926 OPS through his time in the majors. The matchup against Minor isn’t a perfect one, but he’s still in a good spot here to take advantage. the White Sox implied run line is pushing to around five runs and the platoon advantage really favors Abreu in this game.

Pete Alonso FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5000
Opponent - ARI (Riley Smith) Park - NYM
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.35

Alonso might never get back to the mid-.900s OPS guy we saw in his first season, but he also doesn’t really need to. He’s still a very good hitter and has made slight improvements since last year as well. The OPS is around .860 and he already has five home runs this season. The 12% walk rate shows some patience and he gets a great matchup against Riley Smith.

Second Base

Jeff McNeil FD - 2B 2900 DK - 2B 4300
Opponent - ARI (Riley Smith) Park - NYM
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.01

McNeil has been in the leadoff slot for the Mets over the last couple of games and could stick there going forward. He gets a great matchup against Smith in this one and that’s the reason we could be stacking the Mets bats along with deGrom. McNeil has been very tough to get out this season making contact almost 80% of the time. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he walks (11%) more than he strikes out (8%). At these prices, if he’s hitting in the leadoff slot then he has a high floor.

Nick Madrigal FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 2600
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.75

We wrote up Madrigal yesterday with the hope that he would stick near the top of the lineup and he got into the two-hole on Saturday. He’s one of the craziest stat line hitters you’ll ever see putting the ball in play 90% of the time on the season. That’s just nuts. He’s on the better side of his split against the lefty Minor and he should remain near the top of the lineup on the super cheap. The DraftKings price is way too low if this is going to be the opportunity.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 5000
Opponent - BAL (Dean Kremer) Park - BAL
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.43

He’s a little expensive on DraftKings, but I think you can pull the trigger on FanDuel. The position almost requires you to spend up on someone who can mash and that’s definitely the profile for Bogaerts. He has a .963 OPS on the season and is very tough to strike out at only 16%. He has six home runs in his first 130 plate appearances and the ball is in play a lot. Kremer has some K stuff but also struggles with control as well.

Tim Anderson FD - SS 3800 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.46

As I said, you are going to almost have to pay up here, but that’s fine because there is usually some savings at other positions. Anderson is a bit more volatile than Bogaerts with a 29% K rate and he never takes walks. But he does steal bases (six on the season) and has some pop in the bat with four home runs already. Stacking, him, Madrigal and Abreu make a lot of sense here against Minor and Madrigal with the savings helps make it possible.

Third Base

Eugenio Suárez FD - 3B 3100 DK - SS 4200
Opponent - CLE (Sam Hentges) Park - CLE
FD - 11.79 DK - 8.76

This is a little off-board compared to some of the other teams we’ve been stacking up until this point in the article, but you have to like Suarez in the matchup. He gets the lefty Hentges and this is the much better side of Suarez’s platoon. He’s really struggling this season, but for his career has a .872 OPS and .370 wOBA in this split. Look, the price is way down on this guy because he’s been terrible with the K-rate way up. But it’s still early and this is a spot to break out of it.

If you are looking to go a little cheaper, I don’t mind Brian Anderson (FD $2500 DK $3600) against the left Anderson. The Marlins aren’t any good, but he’s hitting around the middle of the lineup.

We talked about this yesterday, but Alex Bregman (FD $3700 DK $4800) is coming a little too cheap on both sites because of some of his early-season struggles.

Outfield

Aaron Judge FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 5000
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - NYY
FD - 13.91 DK - 10.29

Giancarlo Stanton FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 5700
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - NYY
FD - 14.13 DK - 10.45

We want to target these guys in matchups against low-K arms and that’ definitely the case with Joe Ross on Sunday. The latter is K-ing only seven batters per nine and doesn’t have the stuff to take multiple runs through the top of this Yankees’ order. Judge has an OPS in the low 800s right now but is actually showing a little more patience at the plate with a 13% walk rate. He also already has seven home runs.

Stanton, meanwhile, is murdering the ball this season with an OPS in the .900s through more than 120 plate appearances. His walk rate is down some, but the contact rate is solid, just putting the ball in play more with an excellent hard contact right. They are both coming too cheap on FanDuel.

On DraftKings, Yordan Alvarez (FD $3900 DK $4800) is coming just a little underpriced for what he offers. He isn’t in the mid$5K range like some of the other big bats, but he’s been just as good. And then, on the cheap, I don’t mind Kyle Tucker (FD $2600 DK $3300) hitting just below the middle of the Astros’ order.

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