Toronto Blue Jays' Bo Bichette, right, watches his solo home run off New York Yankees pitcher Luis Cessa during the fifth inning of a spring training exhibition baseball game in Tampa, Fla., Wednesday, March 24, 2021. It was Bichettes' second home run of the game. Catching is New York Yankees' Gary Sanchez. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
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Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 32.99 DK - 17.25
The strikeout stuff isn’t anything to write home about for the lefty Ryu, especially considering what some other starting pitchers have done with that stat this season. But he still has very good control and a 4:1 K:BB ratio. His solid 3.79 xFIP is thanks to a nearly 50% groundball rate, a big reason he’s able to keep the runs down and the ball in the park. The Orioles are below-average offense on the season and strike out around 24% of the time. This is a rough main slate for starting pitching with very little in the way of ace-level talent taking the mound. Ryu looks like a solid option.
Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - WSH
FD - 31.35 DK - 16.09
Walker’s been a nice surprise for the Mets this season, posting a 2.12 ERA and striking out more then 9.5 batters per nine control still isn’t perfect and the 3.58 xFIP points to plenty of good luck on his side. Some of that has come in the form of a lower .246 BABIP which is likely set to come up over the course of the rest of the season. He’s a slight, -132 favorite on the road against the Nationals but the run line at eight is one of the lowest on the board. The story here is that the pitching on the afternoon slate is just pretty bad so we need to take what we can get.
Consider Nathan Eovaldi (FD $8900 DK $8300) against the Royals
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - HOU
FD - 12.23 DK - 9.38
Gurriel is having a great season at the plate with an OPS sitting right around .900 thanks to a lot of patience and some power as well. He’s walking (11%) more than he’s striking out (9%) and has 10 home runs on the season. That all lines up great facing Dallas Keuchel who’s peripherals are abysmal striking out only 5.26 batters per nine. Sure, he generates a lot of groundballs still, but the xFIP is in the 4’s. This is a good spot for the Astros.
After Gurriel, the options are pretty thin at 1B unless some changes open up in expected orders. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (FD $4600 DK $6300) is in a great spot against Harvey but is so, so expensive at this point. That being said, with pitching not costing all that much you can probably do it.
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 13.99 DK - 10.6
The Blue Jays get one of the best matchups on the slate against Matt Harvey who is still kicking around the majors, but maybe not for all that much longer. He’s got a whopping 7.76 ERA though that’s some run bad, the 4.79 xFIP is simply terrible. Semien in the leadoff spot with George Springer out has been solid for the Jays with an OPS in the mid-800s and he already has 16 home runs on the season. The FanDuel price is still a little too cheap here which is kind of amazing.
Cavan Biggio (FD $3300 DK $4400) qualifies here as well but is just a little lower in the order.
If Kike Hernández (FD $3000 DK $3600) is hitting leadoff against the lefty Minor then this is a smash spot for him. He’s been great against lefties for his career but it’s just not totally clear if the Red Sox are going to keep him in this spot. If he’s there he’s a play on both sites, but especially DraftKings.
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 16.34 DK - 12.54
This is the worse side of Bichette’s split, but that’s okay because Matt Harvey stinks. Hitting in the second slot, Bichette is expensive but the fantasy profile is about as good as you’ll see. He has 14home runs and nine stolen bases on the season already. He’s headed for a possible 30-20 season and that translates well at these price points even if the OPS isn’t all the way there.
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 13.57 DK - 10.28
We wrote him up yesterday and much of the same thought process applies here. He’s an elite offensive talent playing a premium position and though the salary is high, the matchup is just a good one. Minor has been able to strike guys out this season but the 4.03 xFIP is average and Bogaerts is just too good. He already has 13 home runs on the season and is very tough to strikeout at 19%. He walks much more against southpaws at 11% and has a 132 career wRC+ in that split.
Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - NYY
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.48
This is more of a price play decision and Urshela has been hitting around the middle of the lineup for the Yankees. He’s mostly platoon neutral for his career but is coming too cheap on DraftKings especially. He’s been solid this season with an OPS in the mid-700s and bits of power. We are mostly looking for a couple of ways to save money and this is a position to do that.
Matt Chapman (FD $3000 DK $4800) in the same game isn’t a terrible option considering the rest of the position.
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 13.97 DK - 10.5
We know that he’s one of the true lefty killers in baseball with some eye-popping numbers in that platoon. Over the course of his career, he has a .962 OPS, .400 wOBA, and 153 wRC+ against lefties. The sample size is a big one as well considering how long he’s been playing. The Red Sox have the highest opening run line on the main slate and considering we aren’t going to pay much for pitching, it isn’t going to be tough fitting these guys into the mix.
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.75
He hit cleanup on Saturday with Teoscar Hernandez out of the lineup on the paternity list and that should stick again for Sunday. He’s basically an all-or-nothing guy for his career. He has 13 home runs this season, but that’s basically it with the OPS only sitting in the mid-700s range. He’s coming cheap on both sites for where he’s sitting in the lineup against Matt Harvey. You have to like the value you’re getting with the move up in the order.
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