DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 7/5/21

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Pitchers

Brandon Woodruff FD - P 11400 DK - SP 10400
Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM
FD - 36.32 DK - 20.76

After laying an egg in Coors back in mid-June, Woodruff has gotten back to his dominant self allowing just one earned run in each of his last two starts while striking out 17 batters. They were both plus matchups(ARI. CHC) but the good news is that they get another one tonight as they go into one of the best pitchers parks in Citi Field. He faces an inconsistent Mets team that has scored the third-fewest runs since the start of June while striking out 25% of the time. I know top pitchers have been shaky since the whole "stick stuff" ban but Woodruff is one pitcher it seems to have not affected. Either way, he is in a great spot and my top pitcher in all formats.

Joe Musgrove FD - P 9600 DK - SP 8700
Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - SD
FD - 35.86 DK - 19.44

I completely understand if you want to fade or at least be underweight on Woodruff and if that is the case, Joe Musgrove has a projection very close to Woodruff but comes with a much lower price tag. While he is coming off a dud against the Reds(5 ER), he has been consistent all year entering the night with a 2.63 ERA/3.29 xFIP and the upside we seen in 2020(33% K rate) has carried over into this season(30%). He faces a Nats team that has been struggling in the short term losing four straight and will be without Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber on Monday. Musgrove has huge win expectation as a -210 favorite and is one of our top PTS/$ plays on the mound.

Catcher/First Base

Salvador Perez FD 3200 DK 5000
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 12.47 DK - 9.48
Ryan O'Hearn FD 2600 DK 3200
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.08

This is one of the first articles I have written in a long time where one of the Top 5 offenses in baseball wasn't also the top projected team on the slate. That honor goes to the Kansas City Royals tonight in a great spot vs. Gutierrez who has given up 6+ hits in four of his last five starts and has given up seven home runs over his last four.

Let's start with the AL All-Star starting catcher in Perez who is having a monster first half hitting .280 with 20 home runs and 50 RBI, all of which lead all catchers. The price is up there for a catcher but if you can find the savings elsewhere, he has a ton of upside in this matchup.

We have two options at first base with the Royals but I lean O'Hearn over Santana as he correlates with Perez as a middle of the order(4-5) stack and comes cheaper than Santana. His numbers on the season(.235 avg/.301 wOBA) may not jump off the page but he has been consistent in the short term with hits in six of his last seven games and most of all, at his price, gives us a ton of room to fit top pitching and some top bats.

Also Consider: Freddie Freeman(ATL) as our top projected play at the position but he comes at a high price so likely GPP only or Gavin Sheets(CHW) as a punt play for salary savings as he comes in with hits in five of seven games since getting called up. 

Second Base

Luis Arraez FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Dylan Cease) Park - CHW
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.7

There are better options in terms of raw points(Albies, B.Lowe to name a few) but they are very expensive which has me going the value route at the position tonight. It starts with Luis Arraez who is hitting .310 with a .358 wOBA since returning from injury back in mid-June. He has also been hitting leadoff the majority of the time and despite a tougher matchup is still in play as a top value for cash games if he remains in that leadoff spot.

Eli White FD 2200 DK 2600
Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - DET
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.43

If you are looking to save even more in the middle infield on FanDuel, Eli White is 2B eligible and near min price. He has been playing well lately hitting .288 with a .348 wOBA and 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks but what stands out the most is that he is projected to hit leadoff tonight in a plus matchup vs. Wily Peralta. Be sure to check lineups before lock but if that holds, he will easily be a top PTS/$ play in the system.

Shortstop

Javier Báez FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - PHI (Matt Moore) Park - PHI
FD - 15.19 DK - 11.58

The Vegas total in the Cubs game shot up overnight to a slate-high 11 runs thanks to a 15+ mph wind blowing straight out at Wrigley and that alone makes the Cubs a top team to target. On top of that, they get a plus matchup vs. a struggling Matt Moore(5.79 ERA/5.44 xFIP/1.67 WHIP), and pretty much the whole team comes underpriced. It starts with Baez whose struggles at the plate(.225 avg) are well documented but where he stands out is the power department as he enters the night with 18 home runs and 50 RBI. All things considered, he is my top play at the position in all formats.

Also Consider: Fernando Tatis Jr.(SDP) or Xander Bogaerts(BOS) if you have the salary to pay up as both are elite plays almost every night and now both get plus matchups. If you are looking for more savings, consider Amed Rosario(CLE) who is hitting second for Cleveland and has plus splits vs. lefties(.338 wOBA/111 wRC+)

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - PHI (Matt Moore) Park - PHI
FD - 14.26 DK - 10.69

The Cubs value continues at third base with Kris Bryant who is having a nice bounce-back season after a disaster in 2020 where he hit just .206 over 34 games. He has brought the K rate down below 25% and the walk rate back up over 10% which has led to a steady .355 OBP and .272 average but with his talent there is a lot of room left to get back to his peak performance. More good news for tonight as Bryant has also crushed lefty pitching to the tune of a .490 wOBA, 215 wRC+, and .426 ISO this season. He is a  great play in all formats.

Austin Riley FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - PIT (Chase De Jong) Park - PIT
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.61

Third base isn't a position we need to pay up at tonight and sticking in that second tier we have another mid-range value in Austin Riley. He is in the midst of a breakout in his third season hitting .273 with 14 home runs, 39 RBI, and 40 runs scored. The big difference this season is the progression in approach against right-handed pitching and he has been 29% better than league average in the split in terms of wRC+. At these prices, in this plus matchup, he is in play in all formats.

Outfield

Joey Gallo FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - DET (Wily Peralta) Park - DET
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.23

It would be a crime to not start the outfield section with Joey Gallo who is still somehow under $5K on DraftKings. He checks all the boxes starting with from as he has been amazing since mid-June with a .313 average, .491 wOBA, and 216 wRC+ and is never short on power with nine homers in that time as well. On to of the power numbers we have come to expect from Gallo, he has also been much more patient lately walking over 20% of the time in that same 3-4 week sample size. Not a must playa on FanDuel where the price has adjusted but on DraftKings, he is a core play in all formats with his current price that is bound to hit $5K very soon.

Andrew Benintendi FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.81

Back to the Royals in the outfield as they get one of the best matchups on the slate. Benintendi spent nearly three weeks on the IL due to a rib injury but returned yesterday and while he went 0 for 3, the price is down on both sites despite him projected to be back in the two-hole in the lineup. If targeting Royals, Benny is a great addition that is both cheap and hitting at the top of the lineup in a great matchup. Lock and load in all formats.

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