Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) during a baseball game at Fenway Park, Tuesday, May 4, 2021, in Boston. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
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Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 36.42 DK - 18.93
The pitching options aren’t amazing on this slate though there are some guys in reasonable spots all things considered. Peterson has moved between the bullpen and the starter’s role this season and has been reasonably effective, striking out more than 10 batters per nine and sporting an ERA and xFIP in the low 3’s. The walks are a bit of an issue, but he is a -280 home favorite against the Nationals, easily the best money line win odds on the slate. I like him on both sites, but especially FanDuel where we can roster big bats because of the lower price point.
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 37.63 DK - 19.83
The Braves are also solid home favorites today, coming in at -179 against the Marlins. The only reason Morton isn’t a bigger favorite here is he has to face off against Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ best pitcher. Otherwise, this is a great spot for Morton who is striking out batters at a 29% clip this season. The walks are a little on the high side but his 3.53 xFIP is much better than his 4.10 ERA and he’s run a little bad on his Hr/FB rate compared to his career numbers.
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.66
Only two teams have a run line over 5.0 on Friday’s slate but we are going to be able to stack some hitters from those squads for sure. The Mets are one them facing off against Josiah Gray and the Nationals. Alonso is having another excellent season with an .852 OPS thanks to 31 home runs and a strikeout rate less than 20%. He is a good price on FanDuel and I think we can pay up for him on DraftKings as well.
Opponent - CHC (Adrian Sampson) Park - CHC
FD - 13.7 DK - 10.39
Goldschmidt has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season with a 1.035 OPS, .440 wOBA, and 33 home runs. The 34-year-old has been amazing and it’s why the price is so high. But he’s got a good matchup against Adrian Sampson and with pitching not costing an arm and a leg there’s a path to actually paying up to play him.
Opponent - TEX (Dallas Keuchel) Park - TEX
FD - 13.49 DK - 10.23
Story hasn’t been quite the pickup the Red Sox thought they were getting in the off season and when he hasn’t been injured the strikeout rate is sitting at over 30%. But from a fantasy perspective, this is still a guy with 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases who’s been significantly better against lefties throughout his career. Even this season he has a .355 wOBA and .856 OPS in that split, both well above average numbers. He’s just been terrible against righties. I think we can play him here even at higher price points.
Opponent - MIL (Eric Lauer) Park - MIL
FD - 10.28 DK - 7.87
Marte is coming a bit cheaper on FanDuel if you are looking to save a bit there. He is tough to strikeout and has been walking more than 10% of the time this season. This isn’t an amazing matchup against Lauer, but for his career Marte is significantly better against lefty pitching. He as a 140 wRC+ and .864 OPS this season against lefties. I think we can run him out there.
Opponent - TEX (Dallas Keuchel) Park - TEX
FD - 14.26 DK - 10.83 With the Red Sox looking like the operative stack, Xander Bogaerts is going to make a lot of sense in cash games. He’s hitting in the middle of the order and is having a solid season even if the power numbers aren’t quite to where they’ve been in the past. He still has a mid-800s OPS thanks to a sub-20% K rate and a bit of a run hot time in the BABIP. Regardless, he’s better against lefties for his career and Keuchel isn’t able to generate Ks at all anymore.
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - KC
FD - 11.8 DK - 9.04
Baez has, for sure, struggled this season overall. But if you pin down what he’s done against lefties, it paints a rosier picture for what he might be able to do against Lynch here. He has an .804 OPS and 125 wRC+ in that split this season and for his career has been significantly better against southpaws as well. I like that we are getting him at a reduced salary on FanDuel and though I’ll be rostering Xander almost primarily in cash games, I do think Baez is an acceptable pivot.
Opponent - TEX (Dallas Keuchel) Park - TEX
FD - 13.89 DK - 10.49
While I don’t love rostering Devers against lefties, we can make the exception with Devers here simply because Keuchel is so bad. The latter has an 8.84 ERA through 56 innings this season and though he’s been unlucky, he’s also just kind of stunk as a baseline. So this is a fine spot to spend up on Devers even in the worst side of his split. He, along with some of the other Red Sox are in such a good spot that grabbing the top of their lineup is going to be key.
Opponent - LAA (Reid Detmers) Park - LAA
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.3
Bregman has been one of the better hitters in baseball this season and is a very tough out on a game to game basis. He’s walking (13.5%) more than he’s striking out (12%) which in this day and age of baseball is no easy task. And the power is starting to return to his 2019 numbers when it looked like the gains there were because of how the Astros might have been “seeing” what opposing pitchers were throwing. He’s an excellent cash game play almost every night because of the approach.
Opponent - TEX (Dallas Keuchel) Park - TEX
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.64
Opponent - TEX (Dallas Keuchel) Park - TEX
FD - 13.21 DK - 9.99
Finishing off the Red Sox stack with these two guys is looking like it will have a lot of upside on this slate with Pham slated for the leadoff slot in the Boston order. Pham is a better fantasy player than real life hitter and does have 15 home runs and seven stolen bases on the season. And his career numbers against lefties is borderline elite with a 16% walk rate, 136 wRC+ and .370 wOBA in that split over the years. The issue has been the Ks but that’s not a concern against Keuchel.
Meanwhile, JD Martinez hasn’t put up the numbers this season that we’ve been used to seeing in his career, but facing off against lefties is where we want to be with him. And this season, on that front, he’s still been one of the league’s best with a .927 OPS and 158 wRC+ against southpaws. The price is driven down because he’s struggling against righties. But that’s great news for us because it means we are getting him at a discount in this matchup.
Opponent - WSH (Josiah Gray) Park - WSH
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.07
As mentioned, I like the Mets as a stack on Friday and Nimmo offers a safer play because he’s excellent at getting on base. For his career he’s gotten on at a .383 clip though the number is down a bit this season because he’s running about 30 points low on his career BABIP. That tells most of the story and he’s still slated to hit in the leadoff spot for New York.
Consider Ryan McKenna (FD $2100 DK $2000)
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