George Springer de los Astros de Houston pega un jonrón en el sexto inning ante los Orioles de Baltimore, el miércoles 3 de junio de 2015. (AP Foto/Bob Levey)
Welcome to the daily MLB updates and news article. We'll try and update it right up to line-up locks with as much information as comes across our desks. Let's get to it!
Last night's picks can be found here, so you can wrap your mind around what you need to be looking at before lineups lock today.
By the way - we keep our projection system updated with all of the batting lineup changes as they occur throughout the day right up until lineup lock. Every day. If you want access to that system so you can cut out a lot of the research element, click the button below!
We have another day with excellent weather conditions across the board. There looks to be some fairly strong winds blowing in towards home plate in Texas and Los Angeles(Dodgers) and some possible strong winds blowing out to right field in Oakland. It is something to monitor throughout the day but nothing to be that concerned about.
There is only one afternoon game today but it features two of the top four offensive teams so far in 2016. If you are going to play an all day slate on DraftKings we recommend stacking the Cubs as they come at a better price with similar upside. Both pitchers have been decent to start the year but the Rockies are still priced up from their recent series at home. They carry nowhere near the upside on the road as they do in Coors. Not to say they can't produce runs anywhere but the risk/reward just isn't there for me at these prices.
Texas Rangers
So far in the 2016 season the Rangers look to have one of the scariest lineups in the American League. They have scored 48 runs and are solid from top to bottom in their order. They have guys at the top with speed who can get on base and plenty of power behind them to drive them in with some added pop near the bottom of their lineup with emerging talent, Roughned Odor who has four doubles in his last four games. Then there is the pitching matchup today. The Rangers will face Vance Worley who isn't known for striking out many guys(seen his K/9 drop since his first full season back in 2011). Only Ian Desmond and Prince Fielder have faced Worley more than five times with Fielder going 4-9 with HR and Desmond 3-14 with two HR's. Look for the Rangers to jump all over the Orioles in what could be a one of the highest scoring games on the slate.
Houston Astros
It has been a slow start for the Astros who have lost all three series to open the season. After beating the defending champion Royals in game 1 of their most recent series, their bats were shut down while losing the next three games. There is nothing better to help a team get out of a slump than a matchup vs. Mike Pelfrey who just doesn't put a lot of fear into anybody. He doesn't strike anybody out(5.12 K/9 for his career) which is a good sign for the Astros who have struckout at a 27.8% clip to start the season(3rd worst). Look for the Astros to hand their ace, Dallas Keuchel, some run support today as they look to take game 1 from the Tigers in Houston.
Opponent - ATL (Perez) Park - @MIA
FD - 35.87 DK - 19.23
Until the Braves prove they can score runs and win a game I will continue to target starting pitching against them. Chen comes with a very affordable price tag and makes a great cash game play with average strikeout upside. He can give the long ball but that doesn't scare me in this matchup as the Braves have only hit three dingers on the season and lack power throughout their lineup. Should be a high floor cash game play with upside(due to opponent) for GPP formats.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.64 DK - 9.21
Rendon is showing up in every optimal lineup on FanDuel today. He hits in an elite spot in the Nats lineup right ahead of Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmeran which presents a ton of value.
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.95 DK - 11.07
Opponent - DET (Pelfrey) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.31 DK - 11.21
Targeting Mike Pelfrey is usually a winning strategy. He will be in tough today vs. the Astros tremendous combination of power and speed. Springer and Correa hit back to back in the heart of the order and offer a ton of upside in almost every category.
One other note: There are big differences between DraftKings and FanDuel pricing so the optimal lineups are looking quite different.
These are players that show up in each of the top 10 lineups as produced by our lineup optimizer. This doesn't necessarily mean that they're "safe," it just means that their projected weighted-mean point total is a solid building block for a great lineup foundation today.
Good luck out there today! If you want access to all of our numbers, get started with a free trial below of our lineup optimizer, on us!
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View Comments
Optimizer murdered me yesterday didn't cash any of my 50/50's for the night slate! Playing the 10pm short slate tonight hoping for a big bounce back !
Can't bring myself to roster Chen. I'd rather roll with Volquez.
I never thought I'd see the day when my pitcher scored 87 points, and I STILL didn't cash in lol. But today is the day boys! I can feel it!
Thoughts on Garrett Richards today against the struggling Twins? He should get the run support too.
For those using the optimizer here is a tip from what I have tried recently with some success. I normally run three LU's in a night.
1. Straight up optimizer just to compare to my other LU's. Baseball has so much variance that it is tough for an optimizer to be consistent IMO. Basketball we can predict minutes which directly correlates to fantasy points. Baseball is not like this.
2. In my second LU I will take my favorite pitchers and lock them in along with a few hitters or on certain days a team stack . This changes how the optimizer works and allows you to tailor it to your preferences.
3. While my first and second lineups are usually pretty close to the same chalky plays, I try to be contrarian in my 3rd lineup. I will stack a team against a good pitcher or a team I feel will be under owned or over looked.
I have found in my own personal experience that locking and eliminating players in the optimizer works best in baseball. The filters are there for a reason and bring huge value to the product.
Good luck tonight everyone.
Thanks for the tips !! I'm sure baseball will get easier the more familiar we are with the players
Perfect explanation, exactly what I do too. Helps me break even or at least get some entry money back by mixing it up if it's a bad night. On Chen... throw him in a $1 or $2 tourney.... he blows up you are there and if not it cost u a buck.
I need some wisdom.....what are some thoughts on Carlos Martinez today? Appreciate any help.
STL is a huge favorite -185 with only 7.5 as the O/U. I think Martinez is pretty safe, IMO.
He was close to making the article today for me. Great matchup and a big favorite at home. Control can be an issue but has a high K rate. He struggles against lefties but if he can avoid the fat part of the bat's of Votto and Bruce he should be fine today.
Jim, are you looking at a cash game or GPP? I'm playing GPPs on FD, and I'd rather either pay up for Greinke or save with Ross.
But I've also taken a series of serious beatings this week, so take that for what (little) it's worth.
Those looking to save some salary at Catcher: Salvador Perez is only 2800 on DK vs. Rich Hill for some reason. Also, the 2 Rangers options at C ate 2100 and 2000. Low ceiling on those 2, but a few days ago I took a chance on a 2000 catcher (T. Brown) and he put up about 30 fp. Granted that was at Coors but Vance Worley has thw potential to turn any stadium into Coors on any given night.
Im stacking cards bats tim Melville went to hs here in stl he will have a huge melt down tonight and the reds bullpen is overworked
GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!