Boston Celtics' Jae Crowder, right, reacts after hitting a three-point basket during the fourth quarter in Game 1 of a first-round NBA basketball playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks Saturday, April 16, 2016, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
A painfully short slate today, and one game is almost certainly going to be a blowout. The other one has tons of minutes uncertainty thanks to a 37 minute player going down in game 1. It's the NBA playoffs, DFS edition! Let's do work.
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Analysis
After an incredibly tight game 1, the Celtics lose the guy who plays the most minutes for them in close games. With Avery Bradley on the bench, the Celtics will need to need to replace his defense primariy, and his offense secondarily. This should mean more minutes for Marcus Smart, Evan Turner, and Jae Crowder - all of whom will be chalk plays today. There is uncertainty around exactly how it will shake out, though, because the last time Bradley sat the Celtics were in a gimme against the Lakers. With more on the line, it's tough to predict exactly how all of this will shake out.
With the incredible blowout potential of the only other game on the slate, my guess is that our lineup optimizer is going to be spitting out a lot of BOS/ATL stacks with a sprinkling of cheap dudes from SAS/MEM.
Top Plays
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 26.27 DK Proj. Pts - 28.01
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 27.76 DK Proj. Pts - 28.59
The only two guys on the slate who will have an almost guaranteed uptick in minutes today, leading to slightly off prices. Both paid better than 5x on these FanDuel prices in game one, and both should see an expanded role out of the shooting guard position today. There's not really a whole lot else to break down, here - there are minutes available in what ought to be a close game, and these guys will get them. Moving on.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.19 DK Proj. Pts - 30.77
More minutes will be headed Crowder's way as well, and he also turned in a very solid game 1 performance. He could have had an absolutely huge night, too, had he not gone ice cold from the field (just 5 of 16 shooting). Given the small forward options in the other game, it's hard not to imagine grabbing both SFs from this one.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.12 DK Proj. Pts - 41.57
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.97 DK Proj. Pts - 37.16
I'm not sure how you don't just stack these point guards, given the mess that's going on in San Antonio tonight. Both were very effective on a points per dollar basis in game 1, and they turned in nearly identical fantasy totals. Avery Bradley's absence actually helps both of them, too. He won't be around to pester Teague (though Teague wasn't bothered by the C's game 1 defense, clearly), and Thomas might gobble 1 or 2 of the minutes left by the substantial hole left by Bradley's absence.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 27.33 DK Proj. Pts - 28.98
Bazemore is a very interesting play to me based on what I saw at the end of game 1. Not just his lovely 6x points per dollar performance, no. The Celtics were playing with trying to hide Isaiah Thomas on him on the defensive end, which makes me think that Brad Stevens wants to see if Bazemore can beat him. He responded, shooting better than 50% from the field, and grabbing 8 rebounds in the process. I'll double down on Baze on Tuesday.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 42.7 DK Proj. Pts - 44.52
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 38.63 DK Proj. Pts - 39.29
The Hawks big men have looked very comfortable against the Celtics all season, and given the fact that they played 37 minutes each in the game 1 victory, it stands to reason that coach Bud hopes to hammer on his one big advantage in this series - big man play. Horford in particular looks like a great value, here - he went 24 and 12 on the back of 17 shots from the field, and it's very clear that the Hawks game-planned to attack the Celtics undersized Jared Sullinger/Amir Johnson combo.
Don't sleep on Kyle Korver, either. He shot just 1-10 from the field in game 1, and might get some extra looks with Avery Bradley gone here. If he spends significant time lined up against Evan Turner, this could be a breakout game.
Analysis
Game 1 was, as predicted, one of the more lopsided playoff basketball games I've seen in a while. Why should that change for game 2? I'm a little freaked out trying to even project any totals here, to be honest. The Spurs destroyed the Grizz, yes, but they did it in very weird and methodical fashion. No one played more than 29 minutes, and no one was really very good as compared to their daily fantasy basketball prices.
Why is this weird? Well, usually when there's a blowout like this, it means some star player destroyed the other team. This was just a team-wide butt-kicking, and if you played basically any Spur you wound up disappointed.
And really, the same holds triple for all the Memphis guys. They sucked, played fewer minutes, and generally did nothing all game. Projecting this one, as I said, is no fun. I'm going to do my absolute best to stack the Hawks/Celtics game for double-ups, but we'll still have to grudgingly slip some of these guys in.
Top Plays
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 17.71 DK Proj. Pts - 17.95
and
Xavier Munford
Grizzlies scrubs day! Munford has played an average of 30 minutes in the last 4 Grizzlies games, and has paid around 5x or better in each of those games. He's sort of a terrible basketball player, but he stands to get a lot of run in another inevitable blowout. And I mean, it's not like he's playing that much worse than guys like Jordan Farmar. And then there's Jarell Martin - he's actually shown some promise this season, and plays more minutes when the Grizzlies are busy getting blown out. On a day without many cheap options at all, these might be nice ways to plug up a few holes and build around real players from the Cs/Hawks game. Have I mentioned that the Grizzlies are the worst playoff team I have ever seen? They are. Moving on.
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 19.68 DK Proj. Pts - 20.97
The only Spur to pay value in game 1, and it actually could have gone even better. Ginobili thrives against awful defenses, especially in transition, and this current Memphis squad is all of those things. With Tony Allen getting his run primarily against Danny Green, I think Ginobili has a high floor regardless of the game script (as he demonstrated in game 1).
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 38.12 DK Proj. Pts - 39.75
The upside guy, if you can stomach the insane price. If Memphis manages to make a lot of threes and keep it close or something, the Kawhi beat down potential is always there. He managed 20 points, 2 boards, 3 blocks, and 4 steals in just 29 minutes in game 1. If things break a little differently, and he can add 33% more points based on 33% more minutes, he could put up a monster game.
It's weird, though, because you could really say the thing about any of the Spurs players today. I just don't see them putting any more miles than they absolutely have to on these guys in game 1, and I simply will not trust it for my double ups if I can avoid it. I'd guess you'd be wise to, as well.
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View Comments
Don't forget half man half amazing Vince Carter! The only guy trying in that game who paid over value.
Paddy Mills paid over 7x with 26.8 fantasy points for $3500...love the articles...just sayin
Bazemore has knee stiffness and is Questionable, I'm sure he'll play but do you think it will hinder his minutes/productivity?
What do you think about Vince Carter vs. Kyle Korver?
Im having the same dilemma. trying not to let the fact that Vince has come up strong for me the couple times I used him. Korver seems like the right call with the amount of shots he should put up. but Vince will fill the stat line if he gets minutes
I agree Ben that's where I am right now. Tough picks for value plays tonight that's for sure
I'll most likely make sure I field both in different lineups. Im leaning on Vince for GPPs and Korver for my 50-50s
How do you figure when you say a guy paid 7x, not quite understanding that
Because the"7" before the "x" means how manny fantasy points per $1,000 dollars of salary spent.
Ie: If they cost you 5,000$. 7x value would be 35 fantasy points. SO for Seth Curry to hit 7x value he roughly has to get you 70 fantasy points
He means steph curry naturally