New York Mets' Curtis Granderson (3) scores the go-ahead run on David Wright's seventh-inning single in the Mets' 4-3 victory over the Cincinnati Reds as Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart, left, watches, in a baseball game Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in New York. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
I know it's Monday, but at least we have a 10-game slate on our hands! Most of the aces pitched yesterday, but we still have some nice pitching options for tonight. Make sure to check out our other MLB articles, as they will touch on weather/news, stacks and a few other pitching options. Now Let's get to our top plays for each position!
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Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 36.75 DK - 19.93
Johnny Cueto has been outstanding to start the 2016 season, and I don't see the Cincinnati Reds slowing him down tonight. Cueto looks like the Cueto we were all accustomed to seeing when he was in a Reds' uniform. He has a 3.4 BB% (6th in MLB), which shows the control he has in his pitches. Not only has Cueto shown us that he has control of his pitches, but has also shown us his ability to punch guys out, as he owns a 22.6 K%. Speaking of strikeouts -- the Reds have a 22.2 K% (10th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers, in 2016. I see Cueto dominating the Reds tonight and is our top pitcher of the night.
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @HOU
FD - 36.15 DK - 19.12
Next up on our list is -- Dallas Keuchel. Sure, some people might be afraid to use him, as he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two outings, but he was pitching on the road. Tonight, he will be pitching at home, which is where he is dominant. Since 2015, he owns a 2.04 FIP and a 0.89 WHIP when pitching at home. And to make things better for Keuchel and his beard, they will be going up against the Twins. They have had a rough start to the season and have struggled vs left-handed pitching. They have 69 wRC+ (26th in MLB) and a .266 wOBA (28th in MLB). Keuchel is in play tonight, especially pitching at home and going up against the struggling Twins.
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @KC
FD - 27.78 DK - 13.78
Outside of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, the Nationals have struggled vs right-handed pitching this season. They have 73 wRC+ (27th in MLB) and a .288 wOBA (28th in MLB). This puts Edison Volquez and his beautiful price tag in a perfect position. Volquez is not a guy with huge upside, as he owns a 18.4 K%, since 2015, but he is in a great spot to deliver a quality start. He is a great option tonight, especially on sites where you can roster two pitchers. He will allow you to pay up for some of those big-bats you love.
Also considered: Jonathan Gray, James Shields.
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.35 DK - 8.71
Buster Posey is in a great spot tonight going up against southpaw Brandon Finnegan. Posey has demolished left-handed pitchers throughout his career, as he owns a .357 wOBA and a .177 ISO. Not only does he have some power, but he owns a 6.6 K%, which shows how often he puts the ball in play. Posey has 11 hits in his last 10 games, so look for him to carry that momentum into tonight. He is hands down the top catcher on tonight's slate.
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.45
If you can't afford Posey, then Lucroy is the next best option on the slate. He will be going up against Jered Weaver, who has really struggled since 2015. He owns a 4.95 SIERA, 13.1 k% and a 47.3 FB%. Weaver has shown the inability to strike guys out and to keep the ball low in the strike-zone. Lucroy has looked great swinging the bat with a .299 AVG to start 2016, so look for him to take advantage of Weaver and his 83-
MPH fastball.
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.92
Russell Martin has really struggled to get things going in 2016, but he draws a nice matchup going up against A.J. Griffin. Griffin is very similar to Jered Weaver, as they both have trouble keeping their pitches down in the strike-zone. Griffin owns a 45.2 FB%, but also owns a 31.5 hard%. Playing in a friendly hitters park can only hurt Griffin and help Martin. Martin has a beautiful price tag tonight, and is worth a roster spot, especially if you are planning to stack the Blue Jays.
Also considered: Stephen Vogt and Jason Castro
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.65 DK - 10.23
I just mentioned Griffin's inability to keep the ball low in the strike-zone, so what better person to roster into your lineups than Edwin Encarnacion? We all know the damage he does against left-handed pitching, but he also has nice numbers against right-handed pitching. He owns a .269 ISO and a .383 wOBA against them, which not only shows us his power, but also his ability to get on base. This puts Ercanacion in the perfect spot to showcase his power, especially playing in Toronto, which is one of the friendliest parks to hitters.
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.76 DK - 9.67
Prince Fielder will be heading to Toronto to go up against R.A. Dickey. Dickey has looked awful this season, and I don't see things getting better for him tonight. He owns a 6.75 ERA and opposing hitters have a .300 AVG, which puts Fielder in a great position. Fielder has a career .375 wOBA and .160 ISO against right-handed pitching. He has destroyed right-handed pitchers in his career and tonight should be no different. Dickey will be pitching in a dome, so he won't have his best friend with him -- the wind. The wind gives his knuckleball extra movement, but unfortunately, he won't have that extra help. Look for Fielder to take advantage of the struggling knuckle-baller.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @NYM
FD - 14.52 DK - 10.9
I know this might surprise you, but not only is Lucas Duda my favorite first baseman of the night, he is also my favorite hitter. He eats right-handed pitchers for breakfast, and he will be going up against one in Mike Foltynewicz. Think of right-handed pitchers as Duda's scrambled eggs, but Foltynewicz are his pancakes and Orange Juice (It's a complete breakfast). Foltynewicz really struggles against left-handed batters, as they own a .401 wOBA (not a typo) and a .582 SLG against him. Duda has three homers in his last ten games, and I say he gets another one tonight. Today is -- Duda Dong Day!
Also considered: Brandon Moss.
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Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.34
Have you seen Robinson Cano's numbers this season? The .301 OBP is not that appealing, but his .516 SLG, 24 RBI and 8 homers are just insane! He is showcasing his power to start the year and he draws a favorable L/R matchup going up against Kendall Graveman. Since 2015, Cano has a .363 wOBA and .201 ISO against right-handed pitching, so don't be afraid to roster him in, especially wit his tremendous upside, which is hard to find at his position.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @NYM
FD - 13.51 DK - 10.4
I'm sorry Braves fans, but I am picking on Mike Foltynewicz once again. I mentioned how awful he has been against left-handed batters, so go ahead and add Neil Walker in your lineups (if you roster Duda, Walker has to be included). Think of it as cereal and milk. Duda is the cereal and Walker is the milk! You have to have them both! Walker is a switch-hitting second baseman, but most of his success comes from the left side of the plate. He has been phenomenal in a Mets' uniform, as he owns a .359 wOBA and a .264 ISO. I won't call a dong day for Walker, but look for him to have a nice night.
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.2 DK - 8.23
I already mentioned how Dickey has struggled to get things going this season, so I won't bore you with his stats, but I will talk about Odor. Odor owns a .206 ISO and a .333 wOBA against right-handed pitching, since 2015. He is another guy (like Fielder) that could take advantage of one of Dickey's flat knuckleballs. Odor has recorded at least one hit in seven out of his last eight games, so go ahead and include him in your Rangers stack.
Also considered: Daniel Murphy and Omar Infante.
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.46 DK - 7.95
Tulo's price has dropped drastically, as he owns a .189 AVG to start the year, but he does have four homers. He will be going up against A.J. Griffin, who has had trouble keeping the ball on the ground, as he has a 45.2 FB%. Vegas has the Blue Jays scoring the most runs on the night with a run-total of 4.86, so including Tulo in your Blue Jays stack is the way to go.
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.3 DK - 9.21
Jonathan Villar is a guy with a high ceiling. When you think of a guy with a high ceiling, you tend to think of guys with tremendous power, but not for Villar. He has upside because of his ability to swipe bags. On Apr. 28, Villar swiped three bags, which was good for 32 fantasy points (Draftkings). He should have the green light today, going up against Weaver and his 83-MPH Fastball. Besides stolen bases, Villar is in a great spot offensively as Vegas has the Brewers scoring 4.30 runs (third-most on tonight's slate). Watch out for the speedster.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.6
Damn Nick, back at it again with another Met! Yes I am, but this time it's with Asdrubal Cabrera. I am going with Cabrera for the same reasons I am going with Duda and Walker -- left-handed bats have a .401 wOBA against Foltynewicz. And just like Walker, Cabrera has been swinging the bat well for his new club. He has a .349 wOBA to go along with a 14.9 K%. He is putting the ball in play and is not getting enough love around the league for his play so far.
Also considered: Brandon Crawford.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @STL
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.53
Jeremy Hellickson has been inconsistent to start the year, so look for Matt Carpenter and the Cardinals to take advantage. Hellickson has struggled throughout his career against left-handed batters. They have a .343 wOBA and .453 SLG against him, which sets up Carpenter and the rest of the Cardinals' left-handed bats. Carpenter has a 40.8 HB%, .286 ISO and .383 wOBA against right-handed pitching , since 2015. Carpenter will be over-looked tonight and should have himself a nice night.
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.45
Seager is in a very similar spot as Cano, and not just with the matchup against Kendall Graveman. They both have struggled hitting for average, but have hit for power. Seager has 5 homers to start and draws a favorable L/R matchup just like Cano. Seager has a .324 wOBA and a .179 ISO against right-handed pitchers, in his career. Seager is a guy with a high ceiling, so go ahead and roster him in a couple of tournament lineups.
Opponent - TOR (Dickey) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.2
Adrian Beltre will be going up against R.A. Dickey and his 4.90 FIP, so he's another guy on the Rangers worth mentioning. The Rangers are projected to score 4.16 runs tonight, so don't be afraid to roster the 37-year-old into your lineups. He owns a .350 wOBA against right-handing pitchers in his career and will be playing in Toronto, which is friendly to hitters. Beltre might be old, but his .803 OPS indicates he hasn't lost it completely.
Also considered: David Wright and Chris Coghlan.
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.85 DK - 10.4
Jose Bautista is a guy to always consider penciling into your lineups, and tonight is no different. He will be going up against A.J Griffin, which sets him up with a sweet matchup. Griffin has struggled through the course of his career to keep the ball down in the zone, as he owns a 45.2 FB% and a 31.5 hard%. We all know the power Bautista has, so don't be surprised if Bautista takes advantage of one of Griffin's pitches that he leaves up in the zone.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @NYM
FD - 14.45 DK - 11.26
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @NYM
FD - 14.44 DK - 11.15
I promise this is the last time I am picking on the Braves! What can I say -- I love all of the Mets left-handed bats going up against Foltynewicz. I know I sound like a broken record, but he owns a .401 wOBA agaist left-handed batters and all of the Mets' lefties have been off to a strong start. Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto are very similar to Lucas Duda. They all have tremendous power! Conforto has a .288 ISO and Granderson has a .224 ISO. Both of these guys are great plays and I don't like one more than the other.
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.75 DK - 6.93
Opponent - LAA (Weaver) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.74
I'm not 100% sure on how the starting lineup is going to look for the Brewers, but our projection system really likes Domingo Santana and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. They will be going up against Jered Weaver, who struggles striking out batters, with his velocity and command. He owns a 14.6 K%, since 2015, so look for whoever gets the nod to put the ball in play. Between these two guys, I give the edge to Kirk, as he draws the L/R matchup. It will be interesting to see what the Craig Counsell decides to do with his outfielders, so make sure to look for their starting lineups prior to 7:05 ET.
Also considered: Matt Holliday, Josh Reddick and Mitch Moreland
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View Comments
Is there a site that you recommend so that I can really dive deep into the stats and understand what the acronyms mean? The ones such as ISO, FIP, xOBA and such. I am in Alabama and the ATTORNEY ASSHAT wants to save us from ourselves.....AAARRRGGGHHHH!!!!
Lol roll tide, try daily baseball data, and look at some of the past blurbs, they have done a great job of helping me understand.
fangraphs
How about a stack for the LAA? both the brewers and angels seem to be in a good spot for a shootout!
@Thomas
Haha sorry! I'm an advanced stat type of player.
wOBA = weighted on base average - is a statistic, based on linear weights, designed to measure a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. it takes account every based it. Kind of like AVG, but wOBA takes account extra base hits
FIP= Fielding Independent Pitching - Which converts a pitcher's three true outcomes into an earned run average-like number. The formula is (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run .
ISO= Isolated Power- It is a sabermetric baseball statistic which aims to measure a batter's raw power. The formula is slugging percentage minus batting average. The final result measures how many extra bases a player averages per at bat.
wRC+= Weighted runs created plus- measures how a player's wRC compares with league average after controlling for park effects. League average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average.
Hope this helps!
Awesome Nick Rodriguez. Just awesome. Thanks. Was wondering about some of these myself.
Great stuff!!
Thank you sir!
@Chinedu Nriagu
Haha! An Angels stack does not look terrible, but it's not the top stack of the night. Trout and Pujols look great as well! Our Projection system dosent hate Jimmy Nelson.
Nick, you are my favorite "analyst" on this site!!
I agree on the LAA not being the top stack (NYM, TOR and MIL come to mind), but looking for a contrarian Stack tonite.
I also like a STL stack with Hazzle, Carpenter and either Moss or Holiday.
Thoughts?
I'm going Rockies Vs big game James
Im going to use John Gray ... all mets lefties, 3 toronto righties and a shortstop that hopefully leads off in MIL. :0)
How do people feel about Bartolo Colon as a cheap side pitcher on DK in cash games to afford some bigger batters?
@Chinedu Nriagu Thanks! Means a lot!
And my stacking article comes out in a bit, but I love ST. Louis as a contrarian stack. Everyone will be all over TOR, but St. Louis has shown the ability to score runs in bunches. And Hellickson has been inconsistent.
@Brian Clee
Don't hate the move, as I love the Mets tonight, but Jonathan Gray has more upside with his K%. Colon just has the better chance of picking up the win (which is important). Could go either way! I like your thinking going Colon as a 2nd pitcher on Draftkings. Not a FanDuel play.
Ok. I can’t play fanduel anymore because I live in Texas but I can play Draftkings. Doesn’t make sense to me because they are the same thing. I was doing really well using the optimizer in fanduel Especially with baseball. Is the optimizer just as good for draftkings ? Anyone who plays both I would appreciate your input.
Kelly Conroy, I play DK exclusively in MLB. The optimizer is crushing here. I cannot speak for FD but if you can only play DK, you are in good hands.
LISTEN UP FELLAS!!! The IP blocker route i recommended for bypassing FD and DK doesnt work anymore....BUT there is another way!! As long as you dont hit a jackpot you should be able to fly under the radar with this method...find a relative that lives in a legal state...download a VMR program that allows you to use their computer from your home computer and now you have access and can play! Genius!!