Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.41 DK - 41.61
Conley headlines our point guard ranks tonight for one fairly straightforward reason - his match-up. The Nets have been jockeying back and forth with the Nuggets as the very best match-up for opposing point guards. Conley, meanwhile, is already arguably a value. He went out and put up 20/5/9 against the Warriors, and it goes without saying that the Nets are a significantly better match-up. They've played the league's fastest place with a bottom 3 defense, and a grizzled creator like Conley should eat them for lunch.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 43.33 DK - 46.71
Lillard has been one of the most consistent point guards in all of daily fantasy sports recently, putting up nearly identical lines (averaging 29/6/6 and 46 fantasy points) in each of his last 3 games. And those weren't even phenomenal match-ups - he drew Boston's tough wing defenders, Russell Westbrook, and Dallas' reasonable defensive backcourt (and more importantly, their 2nd lowest PACE). Atlanta, meanwhile, has been a top ten match-up for opposing point guards all season thanks to the defensive downgrade they've seen from Jeff Teague to Denis Schroder. Lillard is a rock solid cash game option, even if he's unlikely to be atop big tournament winning lineups tonight.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.95 DK - 32.66
Hill has been sort of maligned as a daily fantasy commodity, but he's really been turning things around recently. He rocked Boston for 36 fantasy points in his last game, scored 42 against Atlanta few games before that, and has sprinkled in solid performances around those bombs. He can still no-show on you from time to time, but if you're in the market for a huge performance tonight he's one to keep an eye on. A lot of people are still using season long defense vs. position statistics, and those are going to be flawed by the fact that Chris Paul makes up a lot of the Clippers' numbers here. Austin Rivers isn't half the defensive force that Paul is, and I think we could be in line for a very nice Hill game here.
A quick note on Steph Curry: Make no mistake - this is an otherworldly match-up for Steph. He's reasonably priced, has had some huge games recently, and will likely be something of a chalk play. The question is, will he get his minutes? If you think so, you need to play him. If you think the minutes are too risky, then any of the above guys should do.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.11 DK - 30.09
Shooting guard is a little bit sketchy tonight, but I'm pretty into Hardaway here assuming Sefolosha is out again. We're definitely getting into the price territory where we at least have to think about it, but the Hawks don't seem to have any reservations at the moment. Hardaway Jr. might be as good a ball handler as Schroder at this point, and he brings something completely different to the table from Sefolosha offensively. He's averaged 37 minutes in the last two games, and looked terrific against the Kings. Now he's scoring dependent enough that he's going to have off nights from time to time, but have you seen some of the other options available to us here? They aren't incredible. The Trail Blazers haven't been the greatest match-up for opposing shooting guards this season, but I think the value and safety from my perspective is probably good enough that you don't need to worry too much about it.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 29.97 DK - 32.06
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 26.88 DK - 28.48
And here are your high risk, high reward options tonight. Both Barton and Harris have put up 6x+ points per dollar on these prices recently, but they obviously carry quite a bit of risk on account of the match-up. The dream here is that the game stays close, and you get a bunch of extra possessions on account of what would then be a fast paced game. Both of these teams would be happy to play in a fast paced game - they both have a top 5 PACE this season - but the blowout risk is very real. On the same token, you could argue that they both rate to play a bigger role in the offense if the game starts slipping away. Either way, it's tough to recommend these guys for cash game purposes even if I do believe their "average" performance winds up paying value.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 28.68 DK - 31.1
Fournier is probably a FanDuel only play, but I think he's interesting largely because of the fact that many people are going to be a little bit frustrated with him at this point. He was great against Philly, horrific against Dallas, good against Houston, bad against Atlanta, and terrific against Toronto. Who's the real Evan Fournier? Hell if I know. But I do know that it looks like the Magic fully intend to play him 36+ minutes per game in normal game scripts right now, and the 8 point spread in Miami's favor isn't enough to scare me off here. The Heat are simply not a good match-up thanks to their absurdly slow pace, but Fournier looks like a reasonably safe cash game option given the lack of other options on this slate.
Also considered: Victor Oladipo and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. I like both roughly as much as Fournier, but they are a little bit more obvious plays. I'd be fine winding up with any of that crew.
Keep an eye on Gerald Henderson: He played 30 minutes against the Spurs and was excellent on his prices. If he starts again, he's a tremendous value here.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.43 DK - 26.64
If you thought shooting guard was bad, small forward might give you hives. The Suns have had a pretty schizophrenic approach to doling out minutes recently, but Warren has actually been pretty steady in terms of both opportunity and production. It makes sense - he's a young guy, and they probably have to be thinking about the future. In his last 6 games he's paid 5x points per dollar in 5 of them, and then randomly lost a ton of minutes and was awful against Brooklyn. Is there a chance he falls out of favor once again? I suppose, but in a terrific match-up with the Pelicans, I'm willing to take my chances.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 30.14 DK - 31.88
Barnes was a popular play against the Magic, and wound up being a total whiff. But did you see the insane game script there? Ain't going to happen tonight. Prior to his last game, Barnes had pretty well established himself as a $6,000 player on FanDuel, putting up great totals even in tough match-ups like the prior one against the Jazz. Deron Williams' return doesn't help anyone on the team's usage for sure, but I'll take my chances against what looks like the Celtics' 3rd unit of small forwards. If Jae Crowder returns this one goes down a little bit, but Barnes would still be worth a look.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 27.09 DK - 28.57
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 19.42 DK - 20.56
Two separate sets of question marks. With Beasley it's the opportunity. The Bucks are very short handed right now, but we unfortunately didn't get a good sense of their actual plans since their last game ended in a blowout. If he's going to play 30+ minutes he's a value on these prices regardless of the match-up, but do you trust the minutes? Cunningham has the opposite problem. He'll get minutes with Terrence Jones' injury here, but can he actually produce? No one stands on the court doing nothing as much as Dante Cunningham. He looked relatively decent against the Kings last night, though, so he might be a reasonable floor option in a great match-up that should feature lots of possessions with the Suns.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.62 DK - 30.42
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.57 DK - 24.83
The underpriced back-ups. With Zeller and Chandler doubtful for Monday's games, it looks like Kaminsky and Len will be excellent punt plays once again. Kaminsky went off on the Clippers for 43.1 fantasy points in 36 minutes, and in an even better match-up with the Sixers, it's hard to believe he'll pay off less than 5x-6x points per dollar here. As for Len, he's a little trickier. He paid 5x points per dollar against the Rockets, but the Suns' minutes were all over the damned place on account of them getting blown out. I believe he'll see more minutes in this one, and like Kaminsky, he's also looking at a better match-up here. I wouldn't be upset to roster both of these guys, to be honest.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 41.82 DK - 44.17
It's never exciting to write Millsap's name into a pick's article, but that's actually because he's sort of consistent and boring. He put up nearly identical lines in his last two games, playing exactly 38 minutes, scoring 25 and 23 points, grabbing exactly 6 rebounds, and scoring nearly identical numbers of fantasy points. The good news for him? The Trail Blazers might just be his best match-up of the season. They've allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, and unlike the Lakers and Nets (the first and second best match-ups), the Trail Blazers should be able to keep it close enough to let Millsap get his full run of minutes. He seems like a solid cash game option, even if he lacks the upside you're looking for in big tournaments.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 31.36 DK - 33
Johnson's getting more expensive, but he's also playing more and producing more than ever. He rocked 36 minutes off the bench against the Sixers, putting up his third straight 35+ fantasy point performance. More importantly, he played his highest minutes total since 1/13 in spite of Hassan Whiteside also playing a ton of minutes in their last game. He's shooting more than he ever has in the past, and he's also shooting better, falling below 50% field goal percentage just once since January 23rd. The Magic are basically a league average match-up here, so you can expect to see a lot of Johnson in cash games once again.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 31.57 DK - 33.01
It's kind of boring, but given the current state of center in this league, that might be a good thing. The Thunder are so thin up front right now that Adams has been locked into a 37+ minute rotation in close games, and while Westbrook is chewing up a lot of the team's usage, Adams still has two 6x+ points per dollar games in his last 5. Gortat is a fairly tough match-up for Adams on the defensive end, but so much of Adams' value comes on the board and defending the paint that I think this actually profiles as a roughly league average match up for him when all things are taken into account.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.6 DK - 37.56
Howard's a tough guy to evaluate, but I present him to you as the high upside alternative to Adams if you aren't excited about the New Zealander's ceiling. Howard's price has been held down by inconsistent minutes (and, let's face it, performance), but there are some real gems on his resume as well, like the 24/23 game against the Rockets. And, yes, he has had some ups and downs since then, which makes it easy to forget that he had a 5 game stretch at the end of January where he was paying these prices on the regular. The issues for Howard are two-fold. He's a bad free throw shooter, which can take him out of games late, and he can get in foul trouble from time to time. The good news here is that the Trail Blazers' simply don't have anyone on their roster that can match his strength and athleticism. He seems like a great high upside play.
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View Comments
I enjoy this article every day and find it helpful in filling out a roster. Sometimes it's tough to tell what you're advising people to do. For instance, in the George Hill write up, you point out that those going by full season Def vs Pos stats are going to be flawed as the LAC stats vs PG are much worse lately without Paul. But then in your Paul Millsap write up, you point out how bad POR has been vs PF. That is a full season stat. Over their last 10 games, they have given up the lowest FP in the league vs PF. Just don't see where you stand concerning full season Def vs Pos averages. Personally, at this point of the season, I look at last 5 and last 10. It takes injuries more into account.
Millsap is still a great play regardless of Portland's last ten games. Especially with the lost of Plumlee. I get what your saying Brian, but I think Davis just wants us to take both stats into consideration and ultimately make our own decision. Plus he's writing a paragraph on 10-15 players and doesn't want to implement the same stat into every paragraphs. Like I said Brian I get what you are saying tho.
Every day I always look at the games and come up with my own group of players that I will possibly use. Then I come to this site to compare my thoughts with the article and visitor comments. Usually everyday, each player I have selected is in this article and I end up creating lineups with variations of these players...But I get burned EVERYDAY!!! At that point I always say that I'm going to start going totally opposite of what this article says...So finally, for the 1st time, only 1 player that I have selected is named in this article (D.Howard). I was very high on him today but I will be X'ing him out and completely staying away from everybody in this article. It's a curse!!! LOL
1st 2nd
Holiday Holiday
Walker. Walker
Batum. Thompson
Booker. Booker
Covington. Hayward
Miles. Miles
Ibaka. Ibaka
Noel. Noel
Vucevic. Gasol
Hey with the dolphin logo who are you building around today ?
I meant Hey Ryan with the dolphin Logo sorry about that
I'll let you know in an hour or so. Tonight is gonna be tough. There's a lot of value tonight. Going to be some really high scores. I'm just trying to slim down my list.
Awesome Sir I will wait on your info you have yet to steer me wrong :)!!!!!!!!!
This guy is real good thanks Ryan
So Sat. I Saw E. Bledsoe was sitting out and B' Knight was starting at PG. I read in the injury and news update Knight was a "must start". Sounded like a great idea so i started him.
Sun I was reading through the article and saw J. Leuer and a comment something like ....if you want to lock in 25 FP with a high upside then Leuer is it. He was not on my radar at all so i thought that a guy below 5k with a great shot at a big game? They must know something so I put him in my LU.
I checked today and see no mention of injury. Here are the mind numbing results of these 2 "SUGGESTIONS'
Knight = 1 FP
Leuer =1 FP
YEP, that is not a typeo that is a single digit. I am now getting DF bball advive from my neighbors cat. His name is Dan. I put my table down and he steps on players names to insert them in my LU. So far he has never picked any player that scored 1 FP.
Now all the haters blast away at me for being overly critical of "FREE" advice. I gotta go see Dan........
I had Knight and Leuer and I was pissed especially about Leuer. Taj got 7 fps and was highly owned and Leuer came up and scored 1 damn point! Unbelievable some of the land mines they give you but you gotta filter some guys out and hope you're right. They rarely nail a whole lineup but they give decent advice.
Ryan if u guide me as well, I'll give u 30% of what I win, a mans word is still good these days huh? But seriously that's how bad I'm doing, I'm always two ppl short from going off and I need help.
I said it a few days ago and I'll say it again, this article like the rest are written giving u players they WONT play so when u do it lowers their actually players played rate. Is it coincidence that every player on here has a projected point total of within 1 or 2 points of 5x return on Fanduel? I agree with making ur own line ups and used to think that using things like this a reference and then re tooling ur line up was the move. Changing some value plays i.e. Knight and leuer thinking that I had scored some value. Now I'm thinking that I should do the same and go with Dan the cat and take ANY player in this article out of my line ups ASAP! There's getting something wrong and even being wrong a lot is ok if the attempt if true. That's the question is the writer truly trying to help u or themselves? Trying to show u something that u may not know or thought of or trying to stear u into a play that at best has 25% chance to make value. I have been reading this article all season and would love to see what they REALLY play for line ups. But I know that is NEVER gonna happen, even if they did show u anything it would b from a parody account they would NEVER show u their actually $10 single entry 25k to 1st entry or their Sunday million top 2 line ups. They would just show u mediocre to a little above results using their so called expert picks in GPP and double ups all with entry fees under $5. Good luck today and dolphin Ryan maybe u should write this u hit more picks in a day than they do in a week!
I'm a bit more of a statistical analyzer. I usually have all the players in the article. This time I only have 2. I am beyond confident in my lineup I have though. This is always a good article. Try not to second guess yourself.