This is a very weird day in the NBA. There are a couple of higher leverage games that have playoff implications. But mostly it's good teams with nothing to play for facing bad teams with nothing to play for. That could make for some rough sledding. Let's get into the picks.
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Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 43.58 DK - 46.14
With the Cavs win over the Magic last night, the race for the top slot in the East is now a dead heat. Both Cleveland and Boston are 50-27 heading down the home stretch and you can be damn sure both teams want to secure home court throughout the playoffs. Thomas should see a lot of Kyrie’s soft defense in this one and 35-37 minutes is completely on the table for Thomas who has seen a workload increase over the short term. Before last game’s blowout of the Knicks he had scored 30 or more points in four consecutive games. He’s priced fairly at this point, but we want to target games tonight that mean something and this is one of them.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 29.21 DK - 30.8
Reggie Jackson will sit out again and that should leave around 32 minutes of point guard duties to Ish. In the last four games since taking over the starting PG duties, Ish is averaging an 18/6/5 line which is enough to get the job done at these prices (especially on FanDuel). I like Ish as a mid tier option for cash games who has a solid floor against a Toronto team which has sacrificed some defense against the one since Lowry went down with injury. Ish doesn’t have tons of upside because his minutes are somewhat capped, but I think he has a solid floor.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 34.62 DK - 36.78
Are they going to get completely blitzed by the Warriors in this game? Of course. Does that matter for Ulis’ minutes? Of course not. The Suns have been happy to run him close to 40 minutes per no matter the game script and I don’t know why that would stop tonight. His floor is wrapped up in his court time plain and simple. Few other players in the game (and no one else in his FD price range) is a candidate to just be on the hardwood as much as Ulis. He’s shown some ability to well exceed his price point capped by a 34 point performance last game against the Rockets. Don’t expect a repeat but expect him to play a lot.
Strongly consider Patrick Beverley
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 55.73 DK - 60.11
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 31.79 DK - 34.27
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.6 DK - 38.8
I’m putting them all together here because this is such a great spot for this trio of scorers for the Rockets. Clearly Harden is the main focus as he should be back from illness in time to head down the stretch on his MVP campaign. I really don’t need to list down the superlatives on the guy who’s nearly averaging a triple double himself and has the Rockets poised to make a playoff run. He’ll face a Denver team duking it out with the Lakers as the very worst defense in all the land and the Rockets have the highest implied total on the day. You need to really spend up on Harden but I think it’s correct in this case as his matchup is the best on the slate and I think he plays enough minutes to make it worth the cost
The other two guys, Gordon and Sweet Lou still stand to see plenty of run and usage with Ryan Anderson still on the shelf. Both guys should be on the floor enough against a bad defense that I’d be fine playing either (or both) in cash games. Again, this Denver defense is just that bad that stacking Rockets seems like a safe move.
These three guys are far and away the best shooting guard values on this Wednesday slate. I will probably end up playing some combination of the three on both sites and there’s a massive drop off in expectation after you get away from the Rockets’ guys. You can consider guys like Demar Derozan in tournaments for separation, but I’ll be rostering mostly the Houston guys unless we hear otherwise about minutes restrictions.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 48.1 DK - 51.26
He’s coming off yet a big minutes game last night against the Magic in one I’m sure the Cavs were hoping to be out in front of early. That way they could have rested LBJ even a little. But it wasn’t the case and he saw 37 minutes of court time again. Expect the same tonight in the matchup against the Celtics. While not a fantastic points/$ play on these prices, he’s going in one of the only safe games on the slate and Vegas does like points going up in this one. Lebron has totaled 89 minutes in the last three days and now he’s adding to it on the back-to-back. It’s a crazy workload but the Cavs look like they are going to keep pushing him so I think it’s fine to roster him in cash under the assumption the game stays close and he gets up around 20 shots.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.4 DK - 33.36
He played a whopping 42 minutes last night against the Pelicans and 37 the game before that so we could see the Nuggets dial it back a little for this game. But Gallo’s been amazing in the last two, averaging a 29/5/3 while taking 15 and 19 shots respectively. Some of this could be with Will Barton sitting or it could just be a short term minutes increase. Gallo’s price is somewhat depressed as he’s ceded much of the Denver scoring to Jokic and others. But if you think this is the new minutes reality for the guy then we are buying at a discount.
The rest of the small forward pool is a wait and see thing. There could be players sitting tonight which would open up some value, but this is a thin position after LBJ and Gallo. Possibly guys like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist coming on the cheaper side or the Spurs guys if Kawhi sits on the back to back. We’ll have to play wait and see here.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 24.35 DK - 25.43
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 26.42 DK - 27.97
The Lakers are without pretty much all of their big men now and it’s a last man standing situation going on in their front court. From that aspect alone I think we should consider both of these guys no matter the matchup. Nance played 40 minutes last game out against the Grizzlies and ended with a 12/14 line. Meanwhile Thomas Robinson only played 20 minutes but beasted a 12/10 in that limited time. Both are coming so cheap for the expectation that they play enough minutes on the cheap. You can also consider Julius Randle in that group as well though he’s more expensive.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 46.21 DK - 48.76
He’s coming on the back-to-back but that shouldn’t matter all that much for Jokic who’s seen a minutes uptick over the short term. Jokic has played 34 or more minutes in his last four games, averaging about a 21/11 in that time. This should be an uptempo game though there’s no early line on it presumably because Vegas is waiting on Harden’s status. Either way I like Jokic who should be able to exploit a Houston interior that’s weak on defense. He’s a much better deal on DraftKings, but I’d consider him in play on FD if enough cheap plays come in.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.41 DK - 38.28
I’m a little worried about him on the back-to-back as well but considering how high leverage a game this one is it stands to reason Love plays somewhere in the minute range. He was excellent against the Magic last night going 28/11/2 in only 28 minutes and he can pay off on these prices especially if the Cavs are committed to playing him in a quasi-must win game. He’s putting up a ton of shots in the short term, a good sign as he’s eased back from injury. Look for the trend to continue tonight.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 24.78 DK - 25.86
Center is kind of a disaster tonight which has me looking on the cheaper side of things. Zeller’s been seeing around 30 minutes per game though he hasn’t been exactly busting it out of the box. And the matchup against the Heat isn’t all that great, but gain this is more about the state of the position than anything else. Consider him a solid mid tier option for cash games who’s seen a price dos over the short term.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.99 DK - 30.2
Let me just reiterate that catcher is trash tonight and I struggled to find even two guys who I didn’t want to puke about when writing up. Capela was right on that line. Denver has a terrible team defense and is especially bad guarding the interior which could have me looking Capela’s way if he stands to see 26+ minutes. The latter isn’t a guarantee though. Again, we are going to want to get away from center cheaper and a double-double from Clint isn’t out of the question considering the implied tempo of this game and that they may want him on the court more to deal with Jokic.
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View Comments
What about Kwahi Leonard at home against the younger Laker team? Does that SF matchup not seem more fitting than Gallo?
Nevermind, I just re-read the part about Kawhi sitting.
Even if he did play it would be a blowout and he would sit have to game
Nice job, I put up 325 on FD in the block with a 10 from Troy Daniels. Regretted taking IT2 over Ulis. Though Thomas and the Celts would show up in a game like that. If LeBron is on the floor, no one else has a shot.