After a crazy weather filled, mixed slate of games on Thursday, we are back to a somewhat normal state on Friday. We have one afternoon game(NYY @ CHC at 2:20 et), one late afternoon game(SF @ CIN @ 6:40 et), and then 13 games on the main slate. We are also entering the start of another Coors slate, this time against the D-Backs. It's going to be a fun night of daily fantasy baseball. Let's jump right into the picks.
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Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 37.19 DK - 24.47
Of all the pitchers in priced higher than $10K, it's Strasburg who leads the way from a PTS/$ perspective. This si due to him being the second highest in salary on DraftKings and third highest on FanDuel. The early numbers on the season are slightly skewed as the K/9 rate sits at a career low 7.97 which is due to two of his five starts resulting in three K's or less. The good news is that he has tallied 26 K's in his other three starts so I fully expect to see 10+ K/9 rate as the season goes on. He gets a great matchup to help get back to that level tonight as he will face the Phillies who are currently striking out 7th most of any team vs. right handed pitching. The Phillies have also been slumping lately losing three straight and six of their last seven games. After multiple days in a row of having to make the decision of paying $12K+ for our #1 pitcher, it is a welcome site to get Strasburg under $11K on both sites. He is safe in all formats.
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @KC
FD - 32.19 DK - 21.33
Looking for strikeout upside should be your number one priority when targeting starting pitching. Many times we have seen a pitcher give up three or four runs but strike out eight or more batters and outscore a pitcher who gets a win but is limited to two or three K's. I am not worried about the win for the Indians tonight as they should be the favorites(no line released as of writing this) vs. the disappointing Royals who sit in the basement of the entire league in record and runs scored. Looking even deeper at the numbers, the Royals rank 28th in wOBA(.283) and 27th in wRC+(76) vs. right-handed pitching and strike out 20% of the time. Back to the K upside as I got side-tracked by how bad the Royals have been. Of all pitchers on the bump tonight, Salazar is your 2017 strikeout leader with an elite 13.0 K/9 rate through five starts which includes three starts with 9+ strikeouts. He can definitely get himself in trouble with free passes(4.34 BB/9) but I just don't fear the Royals bats and will be using Salazar in all formats.
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @SD
FD - 32.76 DK - 21.57
We don't have to head down the salary list very far before finding my next target tonight. His price is very inviting on FanDuel in the mid $8K range but is definitely in play on both sites tonight. With all the excellent options tonight, I wouldn't suggest using Maeda in cash, especially as he has struggled a bit early in the season. He comes in with a poor 6.58 ERA thanks to giving up 21 earned runs in his first four starts. The good news is he is coming off his best start of the season striking out eight Phillies and walking just one while going seven innings and picking up the win. More good news as his peripheral numbers mirror his 2016 numbers when he picked up 16 wins for the Dodgers and recorded an impressive 3.58 ERA in his first Major League season. His xFIP is slight higher(3.90 vs. 3.70 in '16) but the K rate is up and the walk rate is down. The career BABIP sample is small but he is running a bit unlucky and if he can get the ball back down in the strike zone the home runs should dissipate and the ERA should stabilize. The best news of all is that he gets to face the Padres who sit with a league-worst 25.7%K rate vs. right-handed pitching.
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.97
No question who tops the raw projections at the catcher position tonight. While the power numbers have been down this year, which are no fault of his own as the supporting cast is struggling mightily, Posey has put up an impressive .346 average through the first month and a bit in the season with a .380 wOBA and 138 wRC+ which is well above the league average. He comes into tonight with hits in four straight and eight of his last 10 games, hits in a prime position as the cleanup hitter, and gets an elite matchup. Bronson Arroyo is producing less than 8% swinging strikes and gives up over 30% hard contact. This helps give Posey a high floor for cash games and upside for GPP's as well.
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 9.66 DK - 7.36
If you are looking save up at the catch position bt still want some upside at the position, consider Iannetta who is the first entry in "Picks from Coors-Friday Edition". He strikes out a ton but has the power upside we are looking for from a value play and gets to face a southpaw in Coors. To put it into perspective, Iannetta had a wOBA 80 points higher and a wRC+ close to 60 points higher vs. left-handed pitching in 2016 and is off to the same trend in 2017. Be sure to check the lineups to make sure the Rockies utilize his splits and opportunity but Ryan Hanigan got the start yesterday in San Diego so it's very likely he will be behind the plate.
**Update - German Marquis(RH) is starting in place of Tyler Anderson**
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 14.25 DK - 11.3
Right back to Coors Field for the next pick and possibly the top overall pick of the night. Goldy has been swinging a hot bat to start the season with a wOBA of .418 which is slightly above his career average and now gets to face a lefty in Coors. He is coming off a home run, his fifth of the season, last night and while he has been more productive vs. righties so far, he has been much better vs. southpaws for his career. Then there is the opposing pitcher, Tyler Anderson, who has had a "Rocky" start to the season giving up nine home runs(24.3% HR/FB rate) in six starts for an awful 7.71 ERA. Find a way to get him in your lineups.
**Update - German Marquis(RH) is starting in place of Tyler Anderson**
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.09
While I will take Goldy all day on FanDuel, there is a case to be made for Joey Votto on DraftKings tonight. First of all, he comes at a $1,000 discount which can go a long way when constructing a cash game lineup where ultimate upside isn't always optimal. While the average(.270) isn't quite where we would expect early in the season, Votto has nine home runs and has driven in 24 runs so far and has dramatically reduced his K rate(12.9%) which in turn has helped keep his wOBA(.92) in the elite range. He is not only a great cash game play but comes with a ton of upside vs. Matt Cain at the Great American Ball Park which is no Coors but right there at the top of the next tier in hitters ballparks.
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @LAA
FD - 3.8 DK - 3.08
With all the terrific options at the position in great spots, I have a strong feeling Marwin Gonzalez will come under-owned despite home runs in four straight and five of his last six games. It's Hot-Take Friday, right? Seriously though, it will be hard to fade some of those top options and even on a smaller eight-game slate yesterday fell outside the Top 10 in ownership. He doesn't stand out in the system as he often hits near the bottom of the order but as a GPP player that only helps create a little more window for an ownership advantage.
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.43
The middle infield is very strong tonight and dominated by Nationals. Hard not to like them facing almost any pitcher as they are more than 30 total runs clear of any team through just over a month of the 2017 season. Murphy has carried over his success from the 2016 season and is posting nearly identical numbers with a .333/.373/.568 slash line with an elite .393 wOBA. Tonight Murphy and the Nats get to face rookie Nick Pivetta who did strike out five and walk just one in his MLB debut but may have gotten lucky as he gave up over 50% hard contact. There is a high probability he hits a rookie wall vs. the league's #1 offense tonight. Murphy is safe in all formats.
Opponent - NYM (Montero) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.3 DK - 8.01
While the ceiling may not be as high for a player like Gordon, he comes at a discount that is very inviting for cash game players. He ranks very well in the system from a PTS/$ perspective as he is the primary leadoff hitter for the Marlins. Not only that, he also gets a plus matchup tonight vs. Rafael Montero making his first start of the season after disappointing out of the pen with a 9.45 ERA/6.59 xFIP in six appearances in 2017. The ballpark is actually a bit of a downgrade but Gordon isn't a power hitter to begin with and makes his hay with singles, stolen bases, and run scoring.
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Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.81 DK - 9.65
If you are to learn one thing from this article it is that I am practically in love with targeting the rookie Pivetta tonight. I mean, if the Rockies and D-Backs are going to be chalk then the higher prices of the Nats are likely to be overlooked more than usual. If this is the case, the Nats are an elite play and it starts with their leadoff hitter Trea Turner. After posting an impressive .342/.370/.567 slash line after being called up in June last year, he has carried that success into this season. With Adam Eaton sidelined for the season it just opened the leadoff spot right back up for Turner where he thrived last year. Not only does he have a hot Bryce Harper hitting behind him, Ryan Zimmerman is also having a career year. Take advantage of a lower ownership on Nationals tonight.
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.2
Outside of Nolan Arenado in Coors, Bryant is the highest projected player at the position from a raw points standpoint. He appears to be just fine after some minor calf tightness and is coming off a four-hit night to close out the series vs. the Phillies. Bryant now has hit sin three straight and 14 of his last 15 games and is an elite talent in the game. While Michael Pineda comes with elite strikeout upside, he has really struggled on the road giving up seven earned runs in 8.2 innings in Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. The Cubs have a much better offense and Bryant has a much higher upside than anyone on either of those rosters.
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.89
Even though his price is reaching its peak on DraftKings, but FanDuel didn't get the memo yet that he is an elite player in this league. Now that he is out of Boston and probably done being thrown at(maybe?) he can concentrate on crushing baseballs. The average is disappointing so far in 2017 but the power upside is most definitely there as he has tallied a long ball in three of his last four games doubling his total for the season. The Red Sox may have just woke up the bear that you don't want to mess with. Bad news for the White Sox and Miguel Gonzalez. Play Machado in all formats on FanDuel and in GPP's on DraftKings.
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @PIT
FD - 9.26 DK - 7.81
At a mid $3K price tag on both sites, Harrison makes a great play in formats. On FandDuel he makes an even better GPP play at the same price as Machado with a much lower projected ownership. Either way, the system loves this guy and for good reason. He has thrived as the Pirates leadoff hitter and has hits in eight of his nines games in that spot. He has also shown some power upside at the top of the order hitting four of his five total home runs in those last nine games. Since striking out eight in his season debut, Jimmy Nelson has failed to strike out more than five in a game and that plays right into Harrison's hands as he has onyl struck out 13% of the time this season.
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.33 DK - 8.02
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.8 DK - 7.57
Leading off the outfield picks tonight is a pair of Mets who have been on fire lately and sit in great spots once again tonight. Conforto gets a nice boost in the system hitting leadoff and has multiple hits in five of his nine games since taking over that role full time. He is now hitting a cool .357 on the season with an elite .459 wOBA and 187 wRC+ and even has seven home runs and 18 RBI to add a ton of upside to the safety play. Jay Bruce has been hitting out of the three-hole and having a career best start to his season. He is currently striking out over 5% less than his career average which has resulted in an impressive .291 average, for him, with .414 wOBA which any batter would gladly take. The power has never been in question and he is providing it once again with nine bombs and 22 RBI through his first 26 games. Look for the hot hitting Mets to stay hot vs. the Tom Koehler who has given up at least one home run in each of his first five starts for a 25% HR/FB rate and awful 5.40 ERA.
Opponent - CHC (Hendricks) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.46 DK - 6.53
Even with a fast rising price, if you are fading this guy right now you are most definitely missing out on some big fantasy scores. In almost as many games as he played last season after his mid-August call-up, he has destroyed those numbers this season with 13 home runs including nine in his last 12 games. He is a very intimidating 6 foot 7 inches at the plate and pitchers are having a hard time adjusting at the moment. Until they do you and his regression hits, he should be rostered in all formats.
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TB
FD - 4.1 DK - 3.23
This is more of a speculation punt play if you are stacking the expensive bats in Coors or pairing two high-priced starting pitchers together. Weeks is really only ever in play vs. a left-handed pitcher and usually sneaks his way up the order when facing one and if he does should provide some upside at a very low cost.
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.97 DK - 7.83
His price on DraftKings has quickly adjusted to the opportunity while he remains a top PTS/$ play on FanDuel tonight. Reddick jumped up to the top of the order in mid-April and has responded with a .332 wOBA, 11 RBI and 12 runs scored. It definitely helps to have hitters like Correa, Altuve, and Springer hitting around you and pretty much means you just have to get on base most days to score runs and fantasy points. It is also a bonus Reddick comes with power upside as well and faces a pitcher in Jesse Chavez who has given up a home run in three straight and four of his last five starts.
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View Comments
Was a little annoyed FD returned people's money from the main slate but DK did no such thing last night. Did anyone lodge a complaint with DK?
FD only did this for the Late Night slate and not for the Main Slate. Late Night slate only had two games which is why they returned everyone's money. DK had a main slate only with all five games for last night which is why they may have opted to not give anyone's money back.
Yeah it kinda sucks, but it is spelled out in their rules. Thing is, if you're on the other end of the stick and faded the PPD, your LU's stock just went up.
I appreciate all of the advice but get a little concerned when I see guys recommended that have been on the disabled list. Maybe I'm missing something but isn't Brandon Crawford on the DL?
Ya my fault. Misread a report. I will be adding another option soon.
He is eligible to return tomorrow and I read Friday at first glance at 1 am when writing the article.
Canadians don't make excuses. Din Cherry taught you better.