Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
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Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.43 DK - 32.14
Welcome to NBA Friday! We have 9 games on the board tonight, with every game being worthy of consideration. There isn't a spread over 7 as of now and no game under a 200 total. We open it up at point guard with Ish Smith, who's been an elite mid-range option since Reggie Jackson went down with injury. He's put up 25+ fantasy points every single game and has flashed 40+ upside plenty. His minutes have been pretty inconsistent, but he's always over at least 28. In close games, he gets up to 35+ with ease. His price is still extremely fair around the industry and you're only looking for 25ish in cash games. Against a Clippers team that is likely without their PG's, I don't know who will cover Smith. On paper, the Clippers rank 9th against PG's, but let's remember this Clippers team was very different for most of the season and both starting PG's are currently questionable. No matter who Smith ends up seeing, he's going to see 25+ fantasy points and has more than enough upside in tournaments. I actually think PG is a lot weaker than normal, so I don't have much of a problem staying away from the high-end of the position.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 26.05 DK - 26.51
De'Aaron Fox exited last game against the Bulls with a sore ankle, but all X-Rays came back negative. He was cleared to practice non-contact yesterday and is currently considered probable. Obviously, if things come out differently after shootaround, you can ignore Fox. If he somehow misses this game, it'll have to be Hield who does most of the ball-handling. If Fox gets the start, he's going to produce in this match-up. Not only are the Blazers bad against PG's, but Fox is far too cheap for the production he puts out there per minute. On the season, the Blazers are great against PG's, but they rank 22nd over the last month. We know Damian Lillard is a poor defender and he doesn't have any help behind him. He needs you 25 fantasy points, He's between 25 and 35 fantasy points in every game and has a ton of upside if the game stays close. I do prefer Smith because of the weird injury, but Fox should be an easy bet for value if starting.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.24 DK - 24.25
Just too cheap. I don't love Tyler Johnson any more than the next guy, but he's very talented and seeing 30+ minutes at just $4k. He's most definitely struggling to put up FP as of late, but that's fine. We don't really care about what he's done over the last week. We know he is a solid DFS player and typically stuffs the stat sheet pretty nicely. The Bucks are a decent defense, but they are ranked just 15th against PG's. With Dellavedova out, it'll be a much worse defender on him than typically. Like I said, PG isn't fruitful tonight. There are definitely 5 or 6 solid ways to go, but not like most 9 game slates. Tyler Johnson is just extremely cheap and allows you to pay up elsewhere, without much of an opportunity cost. I'm hoping for someone else to surface, but am perfectly fine with Johnson in both formats if it comes down to it.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 38.88 DK - 39.28
I really love Jrue Holiday when he's the number 2 option. When Cousins and Davis are both out there, Holiday can sometimes fall behind and sit in the 20-30 FP range. It makes sense with 2 guys that are all-decade talents. With Cousins out, his usage flies from 22% to 28%. Huge. He's been over 30 fantasy points in every single game since January 8th, which is just crazy. He's well over 40 fantasy points in most games and has flashed a 60 point upside plenty. His price still lies below $8k on both sites and is needing to get you 35-40 in a cash game. The 76ers are certainly a phenomenal match-up. On the season, they rank 22nd against SG's. Holiday is a huge mismatch for both Redick and TLC and I see him having no issue having another big game. With a 222 total and just a 6 point spread, expect 34+ minutes out of Holiday and 40+ fantasy points. He's a mainstay in every one of my lineups.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.79 DK - 31.02
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 33.32 DK - 33.78
You probably don't need me to sell you on Gary Harris and Will Barton against the Rockets, but I'll do it anyway. These guys have flip-flopped all season long as the more expensive option and it just speaks to the volatility of Will Barton. He's always a bit weird, but he's disgusting when he gets hot and looks like an elite perimeter player in the entire NBA. It's crazy to say, but tune in when his shot is falling. As for Harris, he's just so consistent in every sense of the word. He plays every part of the game well and does not know what it means to take a night off. If his shot isn't falling, you'll see him penetrate and create. Harris is going to be in the NBA for 10+ years and be considered a veteran very soon if things go to plan. He's a bit too cheap for me on FanDuel and it'll be tough to keep him out of my cash games. I think I'm fine reserving Barton for tournaments, but you don't have to. He's been playing well and this match-up against the Rockets is top notch. We know Harden stinks at defense and Gordon is just as bad. Wrapping it up, Harris in cash, Barton in tournaments. But that's just me.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 56.93 DK - 57.99
It'd be easy for me to reference that 70+ performance last time out, but it'd be foolish to ignore all that's happened since, that's surely more important. Isaiah Thomas, Dwyane Wade, and Channing Frye are all gone. Clarkson, Nance, and Rodney Hood are on the way. Many don't like it for the Cavs, but I think it puts him in a spot to take over for himself. Remember those Cavs team that young Lebron took to the Finals? You're a damn fool if you don't think he can drag Kevin Love and some very strong supporting actors. Call me a fool, but I'll take LBJ at the point, Korver and Hood in the corners, with Love and Thompson underneath any day of the week against any EC team. LeBron isn't going to be a Cavalier in 2018, but this opens up the floor for him for the rest of the year. It could obviously go 2 ways and I'm looking towards the optimistic one, but I think that's probably fair for a guy that's been to nearly 10 straight Finals. Maybe we just should give him the benefit of the doubt until he gets trumped. Maybe it is this year, but I think the Celtics need a year or two more out of Jaylen, Jayson, and Smart to improve and mesh with a prime-Kyrie. Oh ya, he's also playing tonight. Nobody on the team is available, so it'll be LeBron taking over the game if they want to stay in it. His price is up there, but you know you're getting 50+ fantasy points and the upside for 80. The Hawks are nothing scary and he's put up 70+ against them more than once in one series, let alone ever. LBJ will cost you, but he's going to see a ludicrous usage tonight and I won't be fading.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.21 DK - 21.08
Gerald Green FD - $4200 DK - $5000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 21.21 DK - 21.08
First things first, make sure Trevor Ariza is out. If he plays, these guys are irrelevant. We're assuming Ariza remains out. These 2 have been splitting about 60 minutes and it goes up to 70 if Gordon is also ruled out. Tucker has seen the more consistent minutes, but I think that's more to do with the match-up. I see this match-up with the Nuggets a very good one for Gerald Green, who figures to match-up well with Will Barton and Wilson Chandler. Tucker is certainly good for 30 minutes as well, but it's just tough to expect much out of the guy. Green at least gives you 30 FP upside and should be pretty low-owned at this point. The Nuggets stink at defense and while Vegas hasn't dropped a line just yet, I'm willing to be this game approaches a 225 total. For me, I'll stuff my cash games with Tucker if I have to and have a ton of exposure to Green in tournaments. If Eric Gordon is ruled out, you'll see a steep increase in my ownership of these 2.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.99 DK - 38.35
If you've been playing NBA DFS for any time at all, this should be the farthest thing from a surprise. Bobby Portis is a damn good player and an even better DFS producer. He gets himself involved in what seems like every single possession and literally doesn't disappoint when given opportunity. I'm sure he eventually will, but it's going to be after a lot of 30-40 FP performances if he sees 30+ minutes. With Mirotic now gone, I think it's clear the Bulls see what they have in Portis. Assuming one of him or Markkanen can put on some weight and the bulls add some legitimate shooting, look for RoLo to be a thing of the past next year. As for tonight, this is possibly the easiest play of the slate. He's going to be over $7k soon if he continues seeing these minutes, so you're certainly getting a discount here. Taj Gibson has the T-Wolves at 9th against PF's on the year. He can't get out of the paint without looking dumb. Portis will dominate him and I'm comfortable predicting 30+ fantasy points with a 50 ceiling.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.69 DK - 35.27
I love this fit. He struggled last time out against the Jazz, but I think we can excuse that just a little bit. He put up 50 fantasy points in his debut against the T-Wolves and while that's also probably an outlier, it is very telling. Mirotic was just in a situation in Chicago that was full of stud forwards with good futures. He's now going to see 30+ minutes every single night and should sit around the 35 FP mark in most. Both FD and Dk did a good job of raising his price, but it's still not too high. He needs you 35-40 in cash, which shouldn't be a problem against a Philly team that gives up plenty of FP. Against 4's, they're sitting league average at 13th. They give up the 4th highest 3-point efficiency to them, though, and we know where Mirotic gets a lot of his upside. We're all over this 222 total and will touch on the main Pelican in just a bit. As for Mirotic, I like Portis more, but am sitting around 75% exposure right now.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 19.21 DK - 19.47
With the new guys not expecting to play tonight, we may see a game of forced minutes here. Jeff Green can certainly handle 35+ minutes for 1 game. When they are activating guys like London Perrantes and John Holland, you know the desperation is there. The NBA lineup optimizer has him safely projected for 29 minutes, but that's an absolute floor. With Zizic and Thompson the only real candidates to take minutes at the 4, I just can't see him staying under 30. The match-up against the Hawks is a fine one, ranking dead average 15th against the position. He's personally my favorite value big man and a guy I'll be all over, assuming the Cavs don't make some kind of moves. He's far too cheap to see even 25 minutes, so he's a lock if he gets to that 30 number. Power forward is very solid, so it's a position you'll have to get right. We didn't even touch on Ben Simmons, who's firmly in play against the Pelicans. Or Blake Griffin against the Clippers.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 61.57 DK - 61.26
The Pelicans just had a bad game against the Jazz and Davis fell victim with 39 fantasy points. He's been over 55 FP in most since Cousins went out and should be right back there tonight against the Sixers. We can look at the 19th ranked DVP all we want, but none of that matters with superstars. They dictate their own unique coverage and shouldn't be looked at like any "average" player. Davis and Embiid figure to match-up here in what will be a battle of the beasts. These are 2 of the more talented players in the league and guys that should be faces of the NBA for 10-15 years. As of now, Davis is clearly better. He's entering his prime and in an offense that's perfectly centered around him. Embiid is a bit more volatile, but that's not to say he can't get hot and hit 60. Davis is extremely safe in all formats for 55+ and you can play him with Holiday and/or Mirotic. This is a game we like a lot and you're going to want exposure. Davis is a damn good way to get it.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 22.49 DK - 22.2
Robin Lopez was ejected in the 2nd quarter last game, so go ahead and ignore that. If you really want to look at it, he was on pace to grab 34-36 minutes. He saw 36 the game before with Mirotic and Markkanen out and I think you can expect the same tonight. He's not a very good NBA Center, but the Bulls give him the ball and he is a fairly decent rebounder. He sits just under 1 FP per minute and does produce when given opportunity. At an insane $4k price tag, you have to love him as a punt. You're guaranteed 25+ minutes with Markkanen still out, so there really isn't much of a floor. I guess that is unless he gets ejected again. This is just a stupid price tag on a guy that should be in line to play 30 minutes and grab at least 20 fantasy points. I am in love with Anthony Davis tonight, but would be a fool to ignore Lopez. Good luck tonight and please comment below if you have any questions!
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NBA sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1usorxL4iXmVVzItgpYvkoSaplqFUSX7EdgFuCASRzMg/edit?usp=sharing
I'm very high on McConnell today. $3800 on FD and $4200 on DK. Definitely a Studs and Scrubs day with all the value available! :-)