Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the New York Mets during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's National League Division Series, Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
We already highlighted Chris Sale and Max Scherzer in our 5/1/18 picks article. We also discussed the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals who are excellent targets at their respective price points in tremendous matchups. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.
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Opponent - ARI (Matt Koch) Park - ARI
FD - 39.66 DK - 22.09
Like I mentioned in the main article, there are a ton of options at pitcher tonight and with Sale and Scherzer soaking up a ton of ownership, Kershaw could be under-owned tonight making him an excellent GPP target. Also helping the ownership tonight is the face he is coming off a start where he struggled mightily walking six batters, his highest total since April of 2010. I am not all concerned about one of the best pitchers of our generation as the show he is still pitching at an elite level with a 2.84 ERA/2.88 xFIP while striking out just under 10 batters per nine innings with an elite 12% swinging strike rate. The win/loss record may look bad but consider he is only receiving just over 2.5 runs of support each start from the offense. Then we take a look at the matchup and while the Diamondbacks have been better as of late(.323 wOBA/103 wRC+), they do present a ton of upside for Kershaw as they strike out fifth-most(26.1%) against southpaw pitching.
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 35.01 DK - 18.99
Another option I will consider for my GPP lineups tonight is Chris Archer. He has struggled a whole lot more than Kershaw this season giving up at least three earned runs in five of his six starts with a home run in each of them and sits with a 6.61 ERA. The good news is that all signs point to some positive regression coming his way as the xFIP(3.80) sits almost three full runs lower than that inflated ERA and on top of that, he is running an unsustainable BABIP(.376) that is 78 points higher than his career average. The upside is still there as he is currently striking out just under 10 batters per nine and sits with an elite 14.5% swinging strike rate which happens to be a career-high. His matchup isn't great but it isn't terrible either as the Tigers rank 18th in wOBA(.314) and 20th in wRC+(93) against right-handed pitchers with the only issue being that they strike out under 20% of the time. With the value price in consideration and possible low ownership, I think he makes an excellent upside GPP target tonight.
Minnesota Twins vs. Marco Estrada(TOR)
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 13.11 DK - 9.87
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 11.73 DK - 8.99
Opponent - TOR (Marco Estrada) Park - TOR
FD - 10.39 DK - 7.79
With all the elite pitchers on the bump tonight, we are going to need some value stacks to make it all work and one that stands out to me is the Minnesota Twins. They are one of five teams on the slate who are projected for five or more runs as they will be at home for game two against the Toronto Blue Jays and Marco Estrada. The only issue with the stack is the fact Estrada can be hard on left-handed bats with his changeup but I am willing to take the risk as he has given up a home run in four of his five starts and twice given up multiple home runs in a start. Dozier presents the most risk as he has been struggling over the last week with just three hits but he has power in his bat(four home runs on the season) and hitting leadoff could get up to three chances against Estrada before the bullpen takes over. Next up is Eduardo Escobar who has been hitting cleanup lately and has been red-hot with hits in seven straight and 10 of his last 11 games with six doubles and three home runs. Finally, I mentioned him in the main article as a potential punt play and if he was to move up the lineup would gain even more value tonight. LoMo has struggled in his first season with the Twins but has a ton of power in his bat coming off a 38 home run season and playing for the Rays has seen Estrada lots over the past couple years.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matt Boyd(DET)
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 9.06 DK - 6.95
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 11.19 DK - 8.59
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 11.05 DK - 8.43
The Rays have a couple things going for them tonight starting with their value prices which works perfect considering all the elite pitchers we are likely to want exposure to. Then we start looking at the numbers and they are the hottest team int eh league over the past 14 days when looking at wOBA(.387), wRC+(146), ISO(219), and they have the second most home runs(20) in that time. They are also one of the best hitting teams when facing left-handed pitchers this season as they have seven hitters who have a wOBA over .350 and wC+ over 100 on the season. Daniel Robertson leads the way with a ridiculous .521 wOBA and 235 wRC+ vs. southpaws and for the season he has been very consistent slashing .33/.476/.561 while hitting out of the five hole. C.J. Cron came over from the Angels in the offseason and has also been consistent with hits in eight straight and 16 of his last 17 games with a .507 wOBA and 226 wRC+ vs. southpaws. Wilson Ramos is a nice value at catcher we can add to the stack as he has been moved up to the cleanup spot in his last two games and comes in with hits in four straight and nine of his last 10 games with four multi-hit efforts.
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My MLB sheet for tonight:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sUrx3kV5N8RuLP4sh6jwqndvRAxogaOMAOCVoLto-uA/edit?usp=sharing