DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks - Friday 3/29

Day one of baseball is in the books and there are only roughly eleventy-million days left. Friday gives us a smaller (relatively speaking) set of games with some really low run totals. That could make the cash game stacks interesting. But we are seeing some quality arms taking the mound for sure. Let’s break down some Friday baseball for FanDuel and DraftKings.

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Gerrit Cole FD 11300 DK 11200
Opponent - TB (Charlie Morton) Park - TB
FD - 41.98 DK - 23.34
If you were a reader of our picks last season, then you know we loved us some Gerrit Cole basically from the jump. While others may have thought the spike in K rate was a fluke, there was a definitive change in approach that seemed like could sustain the new peripherals. He ditched the sinker which had been his secondary offering with the Pirates and replaced it with a curveball and more sliders. It worked. Cole finished the season with a 12.4 K/9 rate and a career-best 3.04 xFIP. Now he’ll get to face the Rays in the best pitcher’s park in baseball as a -140 road favorite with a game over/under of 7. Justin Verlander gave up a leadoff home run to Austin Meadows on Thursday, but then settled down and dealt with a below average Rays’ team. Cole is granted the same matchup and should be one of the more popular plays on the slate.

German Marquez FD 9800 DK 9200
Opponent - MIA (Jose Urena) Park - MIA
FD - 36.48 DK - 19.52

Despite pitching about half of his games in Coors Field last season, Marquez enjoyed a breakout campaign in his second full year. He, kind of out of nowhere, became a legit strikeout guy and ended up at 10.6 K’s per nine. The 3.10 xFIP was better than the 3.77 ERA and the biggest change in his repertoire was reducing his fastball offering from 66% to 55% and using that difference to throw many more sliders. It worked. 2019 will be a test to see if the changes were sustainable and he gets a great chance to start the season off right against a garbage Marlins team in a great pitcher’s park. We could see him as the chalk play for the afternoon slate considering he’s coming priced well below some of the other aces despite having possible ace-like stuff.

Joey Lucchesi FD 7600 DK 7900
Opponent - SF (Derek Holland) Park - SD
FD - 36.07 DK - 19.14 You saw the lineup the Giants started Opening Day with right? It was, well, garbage. Lucchesi should see something similar on Friday, a group of AAA mostly AAA dudes. The lefty is coming off a strong rookie showing in which he started 26 games, struck out more than 10 batters per nine and finished with a 3.45 xFIP. Those are just excellent numbers, especially for a kid in his age-24 season. The only real knock was his ability to last in games, losing only an average five innings per start. The pitch counts were low at times and that could be the case going forward if the Padres are playing it safe with their young lefty. Regardless, you have to love the park and matchup here, well as the price on DraftKings where he makes a great SP2 candidate.

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Team Cash Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays

Park - TOR
Opposing Pitcher - DET (Matthew Boyd)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.82

Potential Players to Stack

Randal Grichuk (FD $3000 DK $4600)
Brandon Drury (FD $2300 DK $2900)
Justin Smoak (FD $3300 DK $4000)
Teoscar Hernandez (FD $3000 DK $4200)

In baseball, it pays to have a short memory. For example, yesterday the Blue Jays were a complete disaster against the Tigers and Jordan Zimmermann. Luckily, today is a new day and a chance to not make me tilt off their anemic offense again. It’s a shorter Friday slate and only one game opens with an over/under more than 8.5. That’s the Blue Jays who come in with a 4.8 implied run line against Matthew Boyd.

Boyd was serviceable if unspectacular in 2018 with a 4.72 xFIP thanks in part to a 1.43 HR/9 rate. His strikeouts trended toward a K per nine, but as I said, he just had too many problems with the long ball. On this slate, that could be an issue with the game likely played under the dome of the Rogers Centre because of the cold weather in Toronto.

The Blue Jays hit Brandon Drury in the leadoff spot on Thursday and I expect to see him there again on Friday. He was a disaster in 2018 for the Diamondbacks, but this is a guy with a career OPS in the mid .700’s who’s modest power in the past. I wouldn’t mind him in this spot as a punt play if he hit leadoff again.

Meanwhile, Grichuk was bad last season, but did get the job done against lefties in that platoon with a .810 OPS and .342 wOBA in that split. He should hit in the second slot and, while not as cheap as Drury, is the slightly better bat.

And finally, Teoscar Hernandez fits much the batter profile of the guys listed above in that that rely on contact to get the job done fantasy-wise. None of them are particularly patient hitters and all have some strikeout issues. But there is power in the right matchup. Hernandez did hit 22 home runs last season and has shown flashes of speed in the minors.

San Diego Padres

Park - SD
Opposing Pitcher - SF (Derek Holland)
Vegas Implied Run Total - 4.14

Potential Players to Stack

Ian Kinsler (FD $2900 DK $4000)
Wil Myers (FD $3200 DK $4800)
Manny Machado (FD $4400 DK $4900)
Franmil Reyes (FD $2800 DK $4200)

It’s a terrible park, and these are the Padres, but the nature of the slate has us making some tougher decisions on teams to stack for Friday. They get to face off against Derek Holland who pitched find last season and made some strides with his peripherals, but some of those numbers were boosted because of his time spent pitching out of the bullpen. Holland struck out almost a batter per nine, but also walked more than 3.5 and was about a half a run worse in xFIP than his 3.57 ERA.

Kinsler appears locked into the leadoff slot for at least the short term in this offense against lefty arms and we will have to use his career numbers in that split to make our case of him as a play. He was dreadful last season, but I’m going to wipe that away (maybe incorrectly) considering his age. But this is a guy with a career .367 wOBA against lefties with an .852 OPS.

And, of course, Machado is one of the best hitters in the game and tuned up lefties last season to a .921 OPS and .383 wOBA. He isn’t exactly cheap, but makes for a solid upper-tier option in this matchup.

Don’t overlook Franmil Reyes who, in 94 plate appearances in 2018 showed a lot of patience against lefties with a 12% walk rate that helped him finish with an OPS over 1K in that split. He had a lot of BABIP help, but he’s a young bat on the way up. I do think the Padres stick with these guys in that top of their order (along with Hosmer) against southpaws.

Other Bats to Consider

Mike Trout FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - OAK (Marco Estrada) Park - OAK
FD - 14.69 DK - 10.97

Against Marco Estrada, Trout seems like almost a lock for cash games on Friday. He’s tough to stack with the rest of his team because the Angels remain pretty damn bad with their order. But against a terrible arm like Estrada (low K rate, mid 5’s xFIP), Trout is walking into a nearly perfect situation. I suspect he’s a chalk play in cash games. I don’t mind running a mini-stack with Kole Calhoun (FD $2800 DK $3600)
as well.

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