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Opponent - OAK (Cole Irvin) Park - OAK
FD - 45.44 DK - 25.26
Bieber hasn’t dialed it all the way up to start the season, striking out less than a batter an inning through his first 22 innings. That’s way off his career pace, but it’s still early in the season and I’m not all that worried about this ace. The velocity is down some which is a bit concerning though, again, it’s early the year and the colder weather can sometimes have this effect. I still like him as a -151 road favorite against the A’s with the run line at a paltry 6.5. Because he hasn’t been lights out to start the season, the price is down some on DraftKings.
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 43.32 DK - 24.46
Cole had a brutal outing against the Tigers on the 19th and that’s really skewing a lot of his season stats. It’s such an outlier that I’m willing to kind of wipe it off the books considering he had five walks in 1.2 innings, something that just legit never happens for the guy. And even with that he has 21 Ks in 18 innings pitched. He’s still an ace and that should be the case again here on Saturday where he’s a big favorite against a lighter-hitting Royals squad. The price isn’t high enough on FanDuel where he’s likely to be very high owned on the evening slate.
Logan Webb (FD $10200 DK $10000) is a huge -240 home favorite today against the Nationals. He’s got the park in his favor and the Nationals are a weaker offense. He just isn’t elite with the K’s.
Sean Manaea (FD $9600 DK $8900) draws the Pirates as a -166 road favorite heading into Pittsburgh.
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.13
The White Sox are facing off against the lefty Jose Suarez on Saturday which is good news for their whole offense. Suarez has been decidedly below average for his career, sporting a 5.04 xFIP, while striking out batters less than 20% of the time. Meanwhile, Abreu has been much better against lefties, rocking a .929 OPS and .390 wOBA for his career. He’s coming off a 30 home run season and a slow start this year doesn’t dissuade me from playing him here.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - LAD
FD - 14.83 DK - 11.18
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - LAD
FD - 14.41 DK - 10.65
The Dodgers have the highest, non-Coors, run line on the day with them facing Beau Brieske who’s failed to generate much in the way of strikeout stuff at almost every level. And he didn’t do it in the majors in his first few innings. Freeman and Muncy should hit two and four in the order respectively and neither will break the bank for you on FanDuel. It gets a little closer on DraftKings where the price is just a bit more in line with expectation. Freeman remains one of the tougher outs in the game and has the mid-850s OPS just a hair below his career averages. Meanwhile, Muncy has really struggled this season, but a lot of that is bad luck around the BABIP. He’s still walking more than 20% of the time.
Opponent - MIN (Chris Archer) Park - MIN
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.2
Lowe is coming just a touch too cheap on both sites and draws a good matchup against former Ray Chris Archer here. Lowe has gotten off to a slow start this season after crushing the baseball last year and ending with 39 home runs. He only has a .595 OPS to start which is why the price is down on both sites. He’s running 100 points lower than his career BABIP though the hard contact rate is down and the groundball rate is up. Both are concerns. But he has enough of a track record to not start fading outright.
Opponent - ATL (Bryce Elder) Park - TEX
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.02
Semien has really, really struggled to start this season with an OPS only in the mid-400s, about as bad as you can be for really any stretch at the plate. He’s failed to hit a home run in his first 89 plate appearances though there is a lot of bad luck in here. The BABIP is atrocious and his Hr/FB rate isn’t in line with his batted ball profile. This is all to say, I think he’s going to start turning things around and we are buying him low on both sites.
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.45
Anderson is on pace to put up nearly the exact same numbers he did last season when he had 17 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and an OPS that just scraped over .800 by the time it was all said and done. Facing off against the lefty Suarez is good news for Anderson who’s been significantly better against lefties for his career with an .871 OPS, .368 wOBA and 134 wRC+ in that split. Those rate way, way higher than what he’s done against righties. On the afternoon slate, he makes for a pretty easy shortstop play.
Opponent - DET (Beau Brieske) Park - DET
FD - 14.98 DK - 11.54
We write up Trea Turner quite a bit around here, but it’s for good reason. The dude hits third in one of the best offenses around and has a power/speed combination few others can match. He’s struggled to get started with the long ball this season, but does have four stolen bases already. Brieske isn’t an arm we need to avoid by any stretch of the imagination, so there are no worries at all from that perspective.
Opponent - CIN (Connor Overton) Park - CIN
FD - 13.27 DK - 10.04
The Rockies have the highest run line on the slate and it’s for a good reason. They are playing in Coors Field and facing off against a righty in Connor Overton who’s allowed many more fly balls than ground balls at every stop of his career. McMahon has been striking out a lot this season to start but is better against righties over the course of his career. I like the price on both sites and think he could be a popular play because of the run line and the park.
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.16
Yes, he’s been worse than bad, I totally get it and maybe the wheels have just fallen off for this guy. It certainly happens. But coming at the bare minimum on DraftKings, hitting in Coors is tough to pass up. And he isn’t so, so far removed from a 35 home run season that we have to squint to see it. So I think there’s a reason to at least punt it off on the evening slate and hope he runs into a flyball in this park. At that price, you can afford some of the downside.
Opponent - CHW (Vince Velasquez) Park - CHW
FD - 15.32 DK - 11.33
For the afternoon slate, it’s going to be tough to pass up on Trout when he faces off against Vince Velasquez. The superstar center fielder is back to putting up MVP numbers early in the season. He already has five home runs and a 1.213 OPS thanks to the power and his ability to walk (17%) as much as he strikes out (17%). He’s just a generational talent and is back to playing like one already. Sure, he’s expensive, but it’s for good reason and he’s one of the safest fantasy plays around.
Opponent - CIN (Connor Overton) Park - CIN
FD - 13.57 DK - 10.4
Like we said with McMahon, the Rockies have the highest run line on the day and Blackmon should be in the two-slot for the Denver lineup. He’s got the OPS over .800 to start the season and already has four home runs, well on his way to topping his power numbers from the previous two seasons. He gets the ball in play about 70% of the time and if anything is running bad on the BABIP. He’s a solid play on both sites.
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.06
Opponent - COL (Chad Kuhl) Park - COL
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.46
Some of these Reds are coming too cheap on this slate considering they are still hitting in Coors. Sure, the offense has been brutal to start the season, the worst in the majors, but coming at $3K and below on DraftKings in this part against an average arm like Chad Kuhl is simply a mistake. I suspect they are popular plays on that site considering the circumstances and playing these guys also allows you to spend up on some of the arms as well.
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