DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/15/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Noah Syndergaard FD - P 9000 DK - SP 9300 Opponent - STL (Michael Wacha) Park - NYM FD - 34.54 DK - 18.26 The industry was down on Syndergaard thanks to an underwhelming start to the season, but our lineup optimizer has stood by his side. That paid off in his last start against the Rockies, where Thor went seven scoreless innings, fanning seven and allowing just three base runners. Tonight he'll get a very similar match-up with the Cardinals, who rank as slightly worse against RHP this season than the Rockies do while striking out a hair less as well. With Syndergaard it just comes down to his prices, though. He's too cheap for his upside, and when we have signs that he's realizing that upside again he remains a very attractive DFS option. Aaron Nola FD - P 8800 DK - SP 8500 Opponent - ATL (Sean Newcomb) Park - ATL FD - 30.73 DK - 16.58 Speaking of 26 year old right handed studs that are off to slow starts to the beginning of the 2019 season, I present to you Mr. Aaron Nola. While the Phillies' ace has taken a step back in a couple of areas this season (most noticeably his lousy 3.99 BB/9), he is still a far more effective pitcher than his 4.58 ERA would suggest. After a tough March and April, Nola bounced back with a 3.29 xFIP in May, which almost identical to 2018's 3.21 number. He seems to have figured out his control issues to some degree while adding a few additional strikeouts, and I'm ready to treat him like an ace again. The issue with playing Nola in cash games is the Braves, of course. They're a top 10 team against right handed pitching, and this doesn't look like a super safe play by any means. Still, Nola has as much upside as anyone, and I'm happy to roll him out if I am just trying to shoot the moon. He's also looking pretty tempting at $8,500 as a pitcher two option on DraftKings. Jake Odorizzi FD - P 10000 DK - SP 10900 Opponent - KC (Glenn Sparkman) Park - MIN FD - 37.61 DK - 20.23 I can't say I'm over the moon about this play if you compare it to just running Syndergaard on FanDuel, but if you're not a believer in Thor Odorizzi is a reasonable plan...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 6/6/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Joey Lucchesi FD - P 8200 DK - SP 9000 Opponent - WSH (Patrick Corbin) Park - SD FD - 32.08 DK - 16.82 Pitching on the main slate tonight is actually fairly complicated. While it seems like there is one clear ace going (more on him in a minute), our system is prioritizing Joey Lucchesi instead. Why? Well, there are a few reasons. The first comes down to Lucchesi himself. He's striking out a batter per inning, has upped his ground-ball rate to 49.5%, and has maintained a 3.71 xFIP this year. That's pretty solid. He's pitching in the spacious Petco Park, and you love to see that as well. But this is where it gets weird. On paper, the Nationals are just a much tougher match-up than the Padres are. Their OPS is .059 points higher against southpaws, and they strikeout 5% less often. And yes, Vegas sees this as a pick 'em with a 7.5 total. I actually have my doubts, and I highly recommend betting the Nats here, but if they are even close to correct taking the savings on Lucchesi looks like a no-brainer. Patrick Corbin FD - P 10900 DK - SP 10300 Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD FD - 35.33 DK - 19.17 The other half of the best pitching match-up on the slate, Corbin has to be one of the more underrated pitchers in the Majors right now. He piloted a sparkling 2.61 xFIP last season to a pedestrian 11 and 7 record, and never really got credit as one of 2018's very best pitchers. This year he's taken a slight step back, as his K/9 has dipped below 10 and his BB/9 and HR/9 have crept upward. Still, Corbin is an excellent pitcher, and this really is a great match-up. The Padres hold the 3rd highest K rate in the majors vs. left handed pitching while ranking in the bottom 10 in wOBA, and while they have some better right handed bats than they did last year I just can't sit here and feel scared of facing them in Petco. Maybe it's nuts, but I don't even mind running Corbin and Lucchesi against one another on a night without a lot of great options. Also considered: Tyler Skaggs. A quick note on the Cleveland/Minnesota match-up. With Berrios and Bauer facing off, you have two legitimately good pitchers that blend both a...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 6/1/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Jacob deGrom FD - P 9900 DK - SP 9400 Opponent - ARI (Zack Greinke) Park - ARI FD - 40.24 DK - 22.93 Justin Verlander FD - P 11900 DK - SP 11900 Opponent - OAK (Brett Anderson) Park - OAK FD - 41.09 DK - 23.09 If two DFS plays have ever been cut from such a similar cloth, it doesn't exactly spring to mind. Let's give you the tale of the tape. This year, Justin Verlander has averaged 6.58 innings pitched per start with a 10.78 K/9 and a 1.93 BB/9. His xFIP is 3.62 thanks to generating ground balls on just 35.7% of the balls put into play against him. Jacob deGrom has averaged 5.72 IP per start with 11 K/9 and a 2.57 BB/9, but his xFIP is slightly lower at 3.40 thanks to a slightly higher 43.3% ground ball rate. He's arguably the slightly better pitcher overall, but he's not going as deep into games. And then there's match-ups. The D-Backs have a .313 wOBA against righties this season, and the A's trail with a .312 wOBA. The Diamondbacks strike out slightly more with a 23.0% K rate as opposed to the A's 20.2%. Things slightly point deGrom here, but the extra distance Verlander has been able to go really does matter for both the raw points and the likelihood of snagging a win. We've made it this far and not discussed their respective prices, though. By now you've realized that when two plays are this similar, price is going to often win the day. I'll go ahead and take deGrom and the savings, but I wouldn't mind running both on DraftKings. Zack Greinke FD - P 10000 DK - SP 9200 Opponent - NYM (Jacob deGrom) Park - ARI FD - 37.15 DK - 20.18 You're pretty unlikely to run Greinke alongside deGrom, but is this really a crazy play for big tournies? The 35 year old Greinke is pretty much the same (excellent) pitcher he's been over the last two seasons. The K's are down slightly, but he's walking exactly no one, and he's going deep into games as a result. His 3.37 xFIP is actually better than his career numbers, and he just looks terrific. And then there's his match-up. The Mets own the league's 19th best wOBA against righties with the 12th highest strikeout rate, which puts them squarely in the "solid match-up"...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/25/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu FD 11000 DK 11200 Opponent - PIT (Joe Musgrove) Park - PIT FD - 39.61 DK - 21.77 There's no way to put this delicately: Hyun-Jin Ryu is now one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues. It's very rare to find a pitcher who can walk fewer than a single batter per 9 innings, and even more rare to find one that can pair that with striking out more than a batter per inning. Ryu is doing both right now. And even with the Dodgers conservative approach, this hyper-efficient approach is letting him stay in games for 6.5 innings per start as well. This also happens to be basically a perfect match-up for his skill set as well, with the Pirates holding the league's 3rd lowest wOBA vs. left handed pitching this season thanks to their league lowest 5% walk rate. Ryu should cruise here once again. Tyler Skaggs FD 7400 DK 7300 Opponent - TEX (Mike Minor) Park - TEX FD - 29.78 DK - 15.58 So let's get one thing out of the way before we even write these guys up. This is a tough slate to find a second pitcher on. Instead of paying more for only slightly better options, our system is throwing up its hands and suggesting that we should potentially chase solid pitchers in very difficult circumstances. We'll start with Skaggs. He's undoubtedly been worse this season, and after last year's mini-breakout Angels fans have to be at least a little bit disappointed. Still, he's pitched just 40 innings so far this season, and most of his bad ERA can be attributed to one truly terrible start against Detroit. He actually managed these Rangers well in the one time they faced this season, putting together 6.1 innings of 1 ER ball on 5 Ks and 1 BB. You don't want to trust a one game sample any more than you want to trust a 40 IP sample, but it's something. Pitching in Texas is different than pitching in Anaheim, of course, and this is far from a 'safe' play. But at these prices? You can make a case for it. Kyle Freeland FD 6000 DK 5500 Opponent - BAL (Andrew Cashner) Park - BAL FD - 29.6 DK - 15.09 And then there's Freeland. After a season where Freeland dodged bullets like Neo in the Matrix to a 17-7 record and a 2.85...

DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 5/18/19 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB and NBA optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Madison Bumgarner FD - P 8600 DK - SP 9700 Opponent - ARI (Zack Godley) Park - ARI FD - 31.82 DK - 16.47 Right now it essentially looks like we'll be deciding whether we want to go cheaper with Bumgarner or more expensive with Stephen Strasburg. We'll get to Stras' case in a second, so let's take a look at Bumgarner. First, the bad news. Getting Bumgarner in Arizona instead of the pitcher friendly Oracle park is less than ideal. It also doesn't help that the Diamondbacks have been, well, awesome against left handed pitching. Their .365 wOBA against lefties is the second best in the majors, and are far from a conventional target for our cash game pitchers. So why bother with Bumgarner? It's mostly a function of his price, the other options, and his own talents. The Mad Bum has been great this season, posting a 9.38 K/9 against a pristine 1.29 BB/9. He's been averaging six innings per start as well. Like I said, this isn't exactly a spot you're dreaming about, but given the lack of great options today it might be our best. Stephen Strasburg FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10700 Opponent - CHC (Jon Lester) Park - WSH FD - 36.75 DK - 20.11 You won't get any argument from me that Strasburg is the best raw talent pitcher on this slate. He's got a sparkling 2.72 xFIP thanks to his career best 11.84 K/9 this season. He's also rolling with a near career best 51.1% ground-ball rate, and all of these improvements have come without the cost of his control. His ERA is nothing to write home about, but the 2.72 xFIP very much paints the picture that we're looking at peak Stras. Like Bumgarner, though, Strasburg has some match-up issues. The Cubs hold the 6th best wOBA against righties, and are striking out at a below average rate against them. While Strasburg is better than Bumgarner, he's also more expensive. I'll be curious to see where our lineup optimizer lands on this one. Nick Margevicius FD - P 7000 DK - SP 6900 Opponent - PIT (Steven Brault) Park - SD FD - 28.33 DK - 13.69 Put away your pitchforks! No, Margevicius hasn't been very good so far in his brief major league career. But the 22 year old southpaw has more promise than you might realize. He was basically a...