DFS MLB Podcast for Tuesday 7/11/18 – FanDuel and DraftKings
DFSR's Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Wednesday 7/11/18 DFSR’s Doug Norrie and James Davis take to the Wednesday podcast discussing the evening slate of MLB action for FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s a lot of Chris Sale talk at the top with a discussion about just how dominant he’s been over the last couple of seasons. He seems like the clear cash game favorite at a whopping -400 opening line. They also look at Jacob deGrom, Lance McCullers, Kenta Maeda and even Freddy Peralta as acceptable pivots. The more difficult decision might be SP2 on DraftKings considering rostering Sale does eat into a lot of the salary cap. For stacks, the guys talk about the Cardinals as a solid cash game team play against Rodon. They also roll through other teams with plus matchups. Be sure to subscribe...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/11/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/11/18 Wednesday's MLB schedule gives us a full-day of games. But we'll focus primarily on the evening slate in this writeup. There's a lot to like with Chris Sale bringing his dominance to the mound, a game in Coors and some cheaper bats in good spots. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Chris Sale FD 12600 DK 13000 Opponent - TEX (Bartolo Colon) Park - BOS FD - 49.9 DK - 28.27 It’s hard to believe this guy has been able to sustain the level of dominance he showed in his first season with the Red Sox, but here we are. Sale’s numbers are just mind-boggling with a 6:1 K:BB ratio thanks to a 37% K%. His 16% swinging-strike% is the best of his career even though his pitch profile has been basically mirror images over the last few seasons. He does what he does and he’s about as good as it gets. He’s, by far, the biggest money line favorite for Wednesday at -320 with the Rangers coming in at a paltry 2.8 implied runs. The Rangers are a top 10 offense against lefty pitching this season, but do strike out about 22% of the time in the split mostly thanks to the bottom of the order. Sale is expensive, deservedly so, but he’s the best cash game option at it really isn’t all that close thanks to the peripherals and money line. Kenta Maeda FD 9500 DK 9300 Opponent - SD (Joey Lucchesi) Park - SD FD - 34.04 DK - 18.34 The biggest issue with Maeda is predicting the pitch count on a game-to-game basis. In his last three he’s thrown 84. 97 and 86 pitches. He’s been quite efficient in that run, going 5.2, 7, and 7 innings respectively, thanks in part to 27 strikeouts to five walks but that really feels like the top end of innings with this kind of leash on him. Now on Wednesday, he gets about the best matchup around against the Padres who rank dead last in the league in wOBA against righty pitching and a 26% strikeout rate in that split. He’s a solid -155 favorite against Joey Lucchesi and an over/under of 7.5. His DraftKings price hasn’t crested over the $10K mark, even though the performance probably warrants a price increase. It’s risky because...
DFSR’s Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Tuesday 7/10/18
DFSR's Daily Fantasy MLB Podcast for FanDuel & DraftKings Tuesday 7/10/18 DFSR’s Doug Norrie and James Davis are back on the podcast discussing a full slate of Tuesday MLB action for FanDuel and DraftKings. They start off talking about the Thailand cave rescue, but then obviously pivot to the starting pitching options for Tuesday. There’s a debate about Justin Verlander vs. Trevor Bauer as the top overall pitcher on the day. It’s very close with both coming in as big money line favorites against average offenses. They also look at guys like Rich Hill and Garrett Richards in the SP2 slot for DraftKings. There’s discussion about whether the D-Backs/ Rockies’ line is too high with Patrick Corbin and Tyler Anderson on the mound. The guys look at stacking Red Sox, Cardinals, Rays, Pirates and more on a full Tuesday in baseball. Quick show notes: James digging his random backyard hole: One of these guys pitches for the Dodgers. One is the DFSR CTO Be sure to subscribe...
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/10/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers and Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/10/18 We already highlighted Justin Verlander, Trevor Bauer and Garrett Richards in our 7/10/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Miles Mikolas FD 8600 DK 9900 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW FD - 31.36 DK - 16.15 Mikolas continues to make the Cardinals look good for signing him after he spent the last three years in Japan. He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three straight starts and in 12 of his 17 starts on the season which have resulted in a very impressive 2.63 ERA on the season. Sure, there is room for regression as he only strikes out just over six per nine but he only walks 1.4 per nine backs up the ERA with a 3.70 xFIP. He also gets a plus matchup vs. the White Sox who rank 24th in runs scored overall and 24th in wOBA(.306) and 21st in wRC+(94) against right-handed pitching with a 25.5% K rate. He has seen his price get as high as $11,000 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel this season so all things considered, I think we can consider him not only in GPP formats but cash games as well. Stacks St. Louis Cardinals vs. Dylan Covey(CWS) Matt Carpenter FD 3200 DK 4800 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW FD - 13.29 DK - 9.92 Jose Martinez FD 2600 DK 4300 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW FD - 11.5 DK - 8.84 Yairo Munoz FD 2100 DK 3500 Opponent - CHW (Dylan Covey) Park - CHW FD - 9.34 DK - 7.29 I didn't talk much about the Cardinals in the main article but they are definitely on the radar tonight. They are fifth in implied runs at this point and get a terrific matchup vs. Dylan Covey who has made slight improvements from his rookie season last year but has still been bad overall with a 5.54 ERA, .456 xFIP and 14% HR/FB rate. He was on a nice streak from the end of May to the start of June holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five...
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/10/18
Daily Fantasy MLB Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/10/18 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Pitcher Justin Verlander FD 11800 DK 13300 Opponent - OAK (Sean Manaea) Park - HOU FD - 42.85 DK - 23.33 Trevor Bauer FD 12000 DK 13600 Opponent - CIN (Sal Romano) Park - CLE FD - 43.9 DK - 23.58 We have two elite aces on the mound at the top of the salary tonight and neither has an elite matchup as both the Athletics and Reds rank Top 10 in hitting against right-handed pitching. Let's start with Verlander who sits with the fourth-best ERA(2.15) in the league and after giving up nine earned runs in two starts to the Rays and Jays, he bounced back in a big way holding the White Sox to four hits and two earned runs while striking out 10. Over the course of 19 starts, he has provided a very high floor holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs 14 times but he has also given us big upside striking out over 11 per nine with an elite 13.1% swinging strike rate. After picking up 17 wins last season, Bauer has taken it to another level in 2018 as he sits with a 2.45 ERA/3.01 xFIP(4.19 ERA/3.60 xFIP in 2017). He has also seen a big uptick in his strikeouts this season with a 31.3% K rate(26.2% in 2017) and 13.1% swinging strike rate(9.2% in 2017). On top of the big upside, he has also provided a very high floor like Verlander as he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 18 starts. As it stands right now, Bauer sits .5-1 point of Verlander in the projections but I am slightly leaning Verlander as he gets a huge bump in park factor pitching in Houston. Garrett Richards FD 8500 DK 8400 Opponent - SEA (Mike Leake) Park - LAA FD - 33.05 DK - 17.28 Dipping down into the mid-range of pricing we find Garrett Richards who made his return from the DL on July 4. He was restricted to 80 pitches but looked good holding the Mariners to four hits and two earned runs while striking out eight and walking just one. The general rule for pitchers working on pitch counts is a 10-15% increase per start which means he is very likely to see 90+ pitches and...