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This feels like a layup and will most likely be chalky tonight but with five teams with an implied run total of five or greater, I don't think the ownership is astronomical. The Mariners get the best matchup of the night vs. James Shields who has been tossing up batting practice since returning from injury in mid-June. In four starts, he has given up 25 hits and 17 earned runs in just 19.2 innings equating to an awful 7.78 ERA and 6.46 xFIP that suggests the second half might not get any better. The best part about targeting against Shields is that he gives up big numbers. Twice in the last three starts he has given up three home runs and has given up at least one in six of his seven starts this year. Load up on a top of the order Seattle stack.
Top Players to Target: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura
Value Players to Target: Mitch Haniger, Ben Gamel
The big story here is the return of Mike Trout to the Angels lineup but I will be going to the other dugout for my tournament stack. The Rays are early dogs on the road but get a top matchup vs. Ricky Nolasco who is nothing more than a bottom of the rotation arm. Through 18 starts, he has given 25 homes(19.8% HR/FB rate)and a hard contact rate just shy of 40% on the season. While you would think to target all lefties for the Rays, and you can as Nolasco has given up a .345 wOBA and 10 home runs, you should also consider righties as he has given up an even worse .383 wOBA and 15 home runs to righties. The park is not one I normally target but the matchup is just hard to pass up, especially if the Rays are 5th-10th in ownership tonight.
Top Players to Target: Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza, Logan Morrison
Value Players to Target: Mallex Smith, Brad Miller
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Ricky Nolasco has been pitchin great