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Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 9/12/17

Posted by on Sep 12, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 2 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/12/17 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NFL or MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. NOTE:  Sorry we're late posting this today. Blame Irma. Pitcher Corey Kluber FD 11800 DK 13300 Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @CLE FD - 52.88 DK - 35.21 I don't we're ready to crown a new king yet, but this is notable. Kershaw isn't the most expensive pitcher on either site -- and our projection system agrees with them. Of course, the Tigers have shed pretty much every piece they could over the last couple of months or so, and what's left isn't very good ... but it's not like the lineup Kershaw is facing is any better, plus CK has the better pitching environment. So it's clear that the primary driver of the Kluber-over-Kershaw pick is the fact that Kluber has been, bar none, the best pitcher in baseball over the last couple of months. Since June 1, he's got the best FIP (2.12), best xFIP (2.11), best ERA (1.89) and best wOBA allowed (.213). To recap, that's best, best, best and best over his last 138.1 IP. Yeah, we could quibble about arbitrary end points, but it wouldn't persuade anybody of anything, nor should it. Kluber has been utterly dominant, and against a team whose projected starters come in with a sub-.300 wOBA and +22 K% vs. RHP, he's well worth his high price in cash games as the Indians go looking for their 20th straight win. Clayton Kershaw FD 11600 DK 13000 Opponent - SF (Cueto) Park - @SF FD - 45.29 DK - 29.87 But hey, it's not like Kershaw isn't a viable option, too. Injury has limited him to about half as many innings over the span, but in those since June 1 splits we referenced for Kluber, Kershaw is the guy right behind him in most categories (2nd in xFIP, 2nd in ERA, 2nd in wOBA allowed). And considering how long CK has held the title of Greatest Pitcher in the Game, we're not ready to push him off the mountain top just yet. Since coming off the DL, he's had one good start and one bad, but we wouldn't read too much into that. And we're also not concerned with the fact that his teammates have seemingly forgotten how to play baseball, because the...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 9/11/17

Posted by on Sep 11, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/11/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NFL or MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.   Kenta Maeda FD 8800 DK 9900 Opponent - SF (Stratton) Park - @SFFD - 30.14 DK - 16.04 After Carrasco and Greinke, this pitching slate gets ugly fast. Not that Maeda is bad or anything, it's just that there's limited upside for a guy who rarely works beyond the sixth inning. On the bright side, he's striking out better than a batter per inning for the second straight season, and he's facing a bad lineup in the best pitcher's park in baseball. Obviously, he'd be more enticing at a slightly lower price point, but we're begging, not choosing, tonight, so he's definitely in play. The question is, where do you use him? Other than his limited IP expectation, the other issue we see here is that he'll have to navigate through 4-5 lefties tonight. We don't really see that as hazard, because the SF lefties aren't an imposing punch, but it could eat into Maeda's strikeout upside. His K% splits are pretty drastic (31.5% vs. R, 17.4% vs. L), and the Giants don't strike out that much to begin with. So, yeah. Not all that exciting, but still a relatively safe dude -- even if his usefulness depends on how well the rest of the slate performs. If Carrasco, for example, is doing his thing, it's extremely doubtful Maeda will keep pace. But if the aces get knocked around (and take down half the GPP field with them), Maeda should provide enough value to keep your lineup in the mix. Brandon Woodruff FD 6700 DK 7100 Opponent - PIT (Brault) Park - @MILFD - 31.24 DK - 15.96 I guess. I'm actually worried he'll be the chalk SP2 based on his solid surface stats and lack of any other cheap, appealing options. And we're not sold that Woodruff is really this good -- while his ERA is at 1.52 through 23.2 IP, the 3.40 FIP and 4.44 xFIP tell us he's due for some regression. That said, there's reason to believe he can prolong the fall for at least another start. The Pirates' projected starters come in with...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 9/11/17

Posted by on Sep 11, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/11/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NFL or MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. MILWAUKEE BREWERS So, um, not entirely sure what's going on between FanDuel and the Brewers, but these prices seem wrong and bad. Sure, with the exception of a 15-run explosion over the weekend, they've been scuffling pretty badly on offense, but wow. A hitter-friendly park, a hitter-friendly pitcher, an implied total at 5+ runs, and nobody over $3.2K? We're gonna have to take some shots here. We don't have much to go on with Pirates starter Steven Brault, and he had some nice K numbers in Triple-A this year, but in 52 big-league innings, he's been below average in pretty much every regard -- 6.58 Ks/9, 4.33 BBs/9, 5.19 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 5.31 xFIP. He made his only 2017 start with the Pirates a week ago and failed strike anybody out while giving up eight hits and three runs in 5 IP against the Cubs' JV team. So, like we said, we're not impressed. As for the Brewers, they've been bad. No doubt about it. They've scored more than four runs just once in the last 10 games, and that's surely why we're getting them at such a discount on FD. Hopefully that slump will keep them from becoming too chalky, because as they showed us in Saturday's matchup with Mike Montgomery, there's still enough thump in this lineup to put up lots of crooked numbers. Among the projected starters, we've got four with a wOBA over .340 vs. LHP (Hernan Perez, Domingo Santana, Jesus Aguilar and Keon Broxton) and four with an ISO over .200 (Santana, Aguilar, Broxton and Travis Shaw). You might have noticed that Ryan Braun is missing from both lists, which is odd. He's been weirdly mediocre by his standards against southpaws this season (.323 wOBA, .185 ISO), but we're not leaving him out of our stacks. The sample size is still tiny (79 PAs), and over the last two years, we're still talking about a guy with a .381 OBA and .225 ISO in the split. Over on DK, the pricing isn't as silly, but we think they're in play there, too....

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Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 9/5/17

Posted by on Sep 5, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Hitter Stacks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/5/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NFL or MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. CLEVELAND INDIANS If you read the cash game picks article, you probably saw this coming. David Holmberg is imminently mashable (6.18 xFIP), the park is great, and the Indians are a top-five offense vs. LHP this season in both wRC+ and team wOBA. It's no wonder then that they've got the second-highest implied total on the board tonight. Also noteworthy: Holmberg hasn't started a game or worked more than 1.2 innings in the majors since June 26, so while he's been stretched out in the minors recently, there's a good chance we'll get to see extended work from the White Sox bullpen in this one. That's never a bad thing, because they rank near the bottom of the league in ERA and xFIP, and most of their best arms have been dealt away. As for the Indians, there are plenty of guys to choose from. The top third of the order (Lindor, Jackson, Ramirez) have put up the best numbers against LHP this season, but we still like Encarnacion and Guyer, who have put up nice numbers vs. southpaws over the course of their careers. Yan Gomes is also firmly in play with a .365 wOBA/.247 ISO in the split this season, and if Jay Bruce is in there, he deserves consideration, too. He's got a .214 ISO vs. LHP this season, and Holmberg hasn't exactly been lights-out vs. lefties this year (.355 wOBA, .191 ISO). COLORADO ROCKIES Ok, Ty Blach isn't the kind of guy we usually like to pick on. He's not that good (4.68 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 4.88 xFIP), but he throws strikes and doesn't give up many homers (.96 HRs/9), which limits the upside -- at least under normal circumstances. In Coors Field, the story is always a little bit different, though, and we've got too many righties we want to play against him to forego a few Rockies stacks tonight. Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are the leading candidates, as they continue to put up ridiculous numbers vs. lefties this season (Arenado: .520 wOBA/.434 ISO; Story: .425/.366). But we don't have to...

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Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings – 9/5/17

Posted by on Sep 5, 2017 in Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks, featured, News | 0 comments

Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/5/17 Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here. Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! First time with NFL or MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered. Justin Verlander FD 8600 DK 11500 Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA FD - 36.01 DK - 23.79 Ok, this matchup isn't an easy one, but this FanDuel price just feels out of whack -- like it was set to the Verlander we saw in April, not the one who has pitched like an ace over the last six weeks or so. These ebbs and flows aren't unusual for Verlander in recent years, and his range of expected outcomes might be among the widest in the league. But while he's at the top of his form, it's not unreasonable to expect him to sustain it -- an anecdotal evidence, just look back to last season, when he was brutal for the first five weeks, then turned in a 2.42 ERA/3.21 FIP over the last five months. It's hard to be 100 percent confident that he'll be able to maintain his current level through the rest of the season, but it's also hard to ignore how good he's been lately: 2.32 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 10.6 Ks/9 over his last nine starts. The problem tonight is that the Mariners are a very good offense vs. RHP (5th in wRC) with a .343 wOBA and .187 ISO vs. RHP. That's probably enough to convince us to look elsewhere in the majority of our DK tourney lineups, but the FanDuel price is just too good to pass up for a guy who's been one of baseball's best pitchers in the second half. Robert Stephenson FD 6700 DK 6800 Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CIN FD - 24.77 DK - 16.66 To be honest, this spot would probably go to Danny Salazar if we knew he was going to get a full outing. But due to concern the Indians could be treating him gently, and in the interest of giving you a pivot off of chalky Michael Wacha, we decided to go further down the food chain. Stephenson's risky for a number of reasons: the ballpark plays like beer league softball yard, the Brewers have ample thump in their lineup,...

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