DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 4/27/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 4/27/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Walker Buehler FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10200 Opponent - CIN (Jeff Hoffman) Park - LAD FD - 43.43 DK - 24.13 Buehler is coming off his best start of the season last Thursday as he held the Padres to four hits and two earned runs while striking out a season-high nine batters and walking none. He now gets a plus matchup against a Reds team that has really struggled lately losing eight straight and have struck out over 28% of the time during that streak. Buehler is my favorite ace pitcher on the slate and in play in all formats. Aaron Sanchez FD - P 6700 DK - SP 7200 Opponent - COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez) Park - SF FD - 30.81 DK - 15.51 Loading up with one of the top pitchers in cash games without sacrificing your bats is made much easier with value plays Aaron Sanchez. While the upside is limited with his 17.5% K rate, he has been consistent, giving up two or fewer earned runs in all four starts with the help of an elite 59% groundball rate. He and the Giants are -19- favorites against a Rockies team that was red-hot on their most recent homestand but have struggled on the road with a .243 wOBA and 51 wRC+. Sanchez is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings tonight. Catcher/First Base Pete Alonso FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 5300 Opponent - BOS (Garrett Richards) Park - NYM FD - 12.29 DK - 9.13 The Polar Bear has been heating up in a big way recently as he enters tonight with a five-game hit streak including three home runs. He is never going to provide that consistent average and strikes out 25% of the time for his career but has game-changing power and making it even more enticing is the fact both his xwOBA(.416) and xSLG(.636) are much higher than his wOBA and SLG. The matchup is also on the plus side as he faces Garrett Richards who owns a 6.48 ERA/6.26 xFIP and has really struggled against right-handed batters with an 8.02 xFIP and .382 wOBA against. I would reserve Alonso to GPP only on FanDuel but will have exposure to him in all formats on DraftKings. Jared Walsh FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B/OF 4100 Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEX FD - 11.51 DK - 8.64...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday, 4/26/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday, 4/26/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Corbin Burnes FD - P 11100 DK - RP 10400 Opponent - MIA (Trevor Rogers) Park - MILFD - 41.03 DK - 22.21 I hate to be over the top with this, but Burnes is sort of redefining "ace" to start this season. In 24.1 innings he has 40 strikeouts against 0 walks and has allowed a single earned run. This is a terrific match-up as well, with Miami ranking in the bottom 4 in wOBA and the top 10 in strikeout rate so far this season. Burnes is expensive, but expensive for a reason, and as the only thing resembling an ace on this slate you can expect to see huge ownership in cash games. Charlie Morton FD - P 8600 DK - SP 8000 Opponent - CHC (Zach Davies) Park - ATLFD - 35.5 DK - 19.04 Some say Morton has lost a step or two, but he's still out there dealing. With 6 IP and 6+ Ks in each of his last two starts, he's bringing reliability that can be tough to find this early in the season (particularly on small slates like this). The Cubs can hit, but they also strike out a lot, ranking fourth in strikeout rate so far this season. The Braves are among the biggest favorites on the slate, and if Morton can keep the ball in the park, he could be a great cash game option. Also considered: Zack Wheeler. For big tournaments Trevor Rogers is a great play against Milwaukee. It's not great to go up against Burnes, but Milwaukee's lineup is even worse than Miami's, and Rogers has plenty of strikeout stuff for big tourneys. Catcher/First Base Freddie Freeman FD - 1B 3900 DK - 1B 6000 Opponent - CHC (Zach Davies) Park - ATLFD - 13.84 DK - 10.36 Freeman is an incredible buy-low opportunity right now. He's got an .800+ OPS in spite of a .170 BABIP. He's walking 19% of the time against a 10% BB rate, and he's under $4,000. Things are turning in very short order for Freeman. As for the match-up, prepare yourself to see a few Braves in today's article. Things have gone pear-shaped for Davies early in the 2021 season. He's walking an astounding 6.46 batters per nine innings, while striking out fewer than 6 per nine. Last year's ERA looks like a total fluke, and the Braves should eat...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 4/25/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 4/25/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Eduardo Rodriguez FD 8300 DK 8200 Opponent - SEA (Nick Margevicius) Park - SEAFD - 35.43 DK - 18.93 E-Rod has been excellent to start this season, really dialing up the K’s in a way we haven’t seen from the guy since 2018. He’s putting down more than 10 batters per nine and has a 2.86 xFIP for his efforts. He’s throwing his cutter more which is, in part, responsible for the gains he’s making on the mound. But the big news is that he’s really limited the walks in a way we haven’t seen before from the guy. If he’s truly put together the command like this then he’s an ace plain and simple. Jack Flaherty FD 8600 DK 8400 Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CINFD - 39.11 DK - 21.39 Flattery hasn’t started the season that strongly with a K/9 under nine so far and xFIp sitting in the low 4’s. And this is a good matchup against a Reds team that’s come out really swinging this season. But we are simply buying really low on Flaherty’s projected peripherals and anticipating a return to the 10.5 K/9 rate he’s had for most of his career. This is having a little faith for sure and not everyone is going to see it this way, but I think the risk is worth the reward on a day that's light on pitching. Drew Smyly FD 0 DK 8200 Opponent - ARI (Zac Gallen) Park - ARIFD - 35.77 DK - 19.42 This game was postponed from yesterday so some of the same writeups are going to apply. Here’s what I had to say about him before: Smyly is coming way too cheap on this slate and should be a very popular option on both sites. Smyly has only start two games this season but this guy has been excellent for his last 37 innings or so. The xFIP is in the low 3’s over that stretch and is striking out close to ten batters per nine as well. And this season he’s been able to limit the walks really well. The matchup is great against a Diamondbacks team that’s been middle of the pack this season but isn’t projected to have much pop over the long term. The price is too low for the peripherals and there should be more of a price correction on what Smyly has done...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/24/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 4/24/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Pitchers Nathan Eovaldi FD - P 8500 DK - SP 8900 Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - BOSFD - 37.75 DK - 20.35 Eovaldi isn’t the first name that might jump out for cash games, but he’s in an excellent spot on Saturday. He comes in as a -190 home favorite against the Seattle Mariners. He’s had an excellent start to the season, striking out more than 9.5 batters per nine and rocking a 2.65 xFIP. Meanwhile, the Mariners have the fourth-worst team wOBA this season and are striking out almost 27% of the time. Eovaldi’s price hasn’t really corrected for how good he’s been this season and this is such a good matchup that he’s got to be in contention for the cash game option on the day. Drew Smyly FD - P 6700 DK - SP 8200 Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ATLFD - 38.2 DK - 20.79 Smyly is coming way too cheap on this slate and should be a very popular option on both sites. Smyly has only started two games this season but this guy has been excellent for his last 37 innings or so. The xFIP is in the low 3’s over that stretch and is striking out close to ten batters per nine as well. And this season he’s been able to limit the walks really well. The matchup is great against a Diamondbacks team that’s been middle of the pack this season but isn’t projected to have much pop over the long term. The price is too low for the peripherals and there should be more of a price correction on what Smyly has done lately. I don’t mind Kevin Gausman (FD $9400 DK $7600) at these prices in a matchup against the Marlins. Catcher/First Base Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4800 Opponent - CIN (Wade Miley) Park - STLFD - 11.85 DK - 8.92 This isn’t a great matchup to target Goldschmidt mostly because Miley, while a lefty, has shown excellent control so far this season and is getting a lot ground balls to start the year. That’s not a great thing, but this is Goldie in a matchup against a southpaw and that has to perk your ears up at least some. This is a guy with a career 1.014 OPS and .423 wOBA in this split for his career. And sure, a lot...
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 4/23/21
DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 4/23/21 Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below. START YOUR FREE TRIAL NOW! Happy Friday baseball fans. We have one early game today(MIL@CHC) but will be concentrating on the huge 14-game main slate with my top plays at each position for FanDuel and Draftkings. Let's get started. Pitchers Tyler Glasnow FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10100 Opponent - TOR (Steven Matz) Park - TB FD - 38.81 DK - 21.31 I would love to just throw up deGrom here as my top pitcher, which he is in terms of raw points, but for cash games it very tough to build around him tonight. For this reason, I lean Glasnow tonight who may not be on the exact same level as deGrom but the gap is very, very small. Through four starts, Glasnow has allowed just nine hits and two earned runs with an insane 40% K rate which is aided by a new slider that he is throwing that is creating a 15% swinging-strike rate. The Jays do have some firepower but have underwhelmed lately with a 70 wRC+ over the last seven days and 89 on the season(11% below league average). Glasnow is my top pitcher to build around tonight in all formats. Huascar Ynoa FD 6900 DK 7500 Opponent - ARI (Luke Weaver) Park - ARI FD - 35.22 DK - 18.98 If you rostered him in his last start, it is going to be hard to get that taste out of your mouth but hear me out. He was excellent in his two previous starts allowing just five hits and one earned run over 11 innings while striking out 15 and walking just two. Even with that loss last game, the underlying stats are near-elite as the xFIP(2.45) is a run and a half lower than his ERA while the WHIP sits at 1.00. That in itself presents a nice floor as he will normally be going 5-6 innings and he also has big upside striking out 32% of batters with a crazy 14% swinging-strike rate. He will need that on Friday as the D-Backs come in hot scoring 5+ runs in four straight but overall they are producing runs 17% below average vs. righties with a 25% K rate. That combined with his price has Ynoa as my top value SP2 on DraftKings. Catcher/First Base Matt Olson FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 5000 Opponent - BAL (Jorge Lopez) Park - BAL FD - 12.1 DK -...